Forex binary options forecasts

[B]EURJPY Forecast 23 Sep 2014[/B]

According to a Chinese press report, there is a property crisis in one of the smaller cities around Beijing. After the biggest property developer in the region disappeared leaving a debt worth close to 1 billion Chinese yuan it is predictable that the situation in this city might only be the top of the iceberg.

The stock markets around the globe have declined substantially on Monday with Asian stocks taking the lead, European shares following up and the US NASDAQ index shedding more than 1%. As the stock market declines the risk appetite of investors diminishes and they flock back to the safety of their bonds.

This is the flow in pretty much every pair involving the Japanese yen. Prices have been dropping in all the EUR/JPY, USD/JPY and GBP/JPY binary options forex pairs. We will focus on some key levels to take a look at in the coming Tuesday trading session.

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[B]NZD/USD Forecast 24 Sep 2014[/B]

[I]The New Zealand dollar is poised to go higher from current levels[/I]

A very big technical level has been reached by the New Zealand right around the London close today. We have seen the weekly support trendline tested and the currency has hit a new 12 month low against the US dollar. We think that this is a great buying opportunity for daily calls and weekly calls on this pair.

While current prices around 0.8065 are already about 15 pips above the level hit earlier in the day, we think that the level is perfect for buying daily and weekly calls. If however we see an hourly close below 0.8050 we would only buy weekly calls.

This opportunity is valid for three expiry periods - tonight’s daily expiry, tomorrow’s daily expiry and the end of the week expiry with all our opinions leading to call buying at 0.8065-70. The whole spectrum of the move can be unfolded in the next weeks and we could see binary options on the NZD/USD forex pair rally all the way to 0.83.

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[B]EUR/USD Forecast 24 Sep 2014[/B]

[I]The Euro is preparing for another leg higher after recent losses[/I]

Despite lower than expected data from Germany, reflecting falling confidence in the future course of the economy, we think that a large portion of the bad news for the Euro have already been reflected in the current market price in the EUR/USD binary options forex pair.

We are looking at some serious moves in the coming days as we await key data on US New Home Sales later today. While the consensus forecast is for that data to show a rise of 433,000 units on an annualized basis, our view does not coincide with these high expectations.

We think that the data later today could be the turning point for the US dollar and are looking for opportunities to buy daily calls on the EUR/USD binary options forex pair. The first level which we have identified on our charts is around 1.2840.

With current prices hovering around 1.2850, this would be the first level to pay close attention to. While it is a minor support with the much larger lying in the 1.2815-20 area we would be keen to buy daily calls after it is tested.

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[B]EUR/USD Forecast 25 Sep 2014[/B]

[I]Euro bulls hopes dashed to pieced with another move lower[/I]

The EUR/USD pair has surprised us in its latest move. The support level around 1.2815 has given way and the single European currency tanked to mark a new multi-month low just below 1.2770 as of writing. That said we are seeing some consolidation in the coming hours which could permit us to hop on the trend and catch another leg lower.

As EUR/USD traders have listened to ECBs president Mario Draghi overnight, they felt like they missed some of his rhetoric which could drive the Euro even lower and sold the currency once against against the US dollar. He said that the ECB expects only “modest growth” in the second part of the year.

He went on to explain that the European Central Bank (ECB) has more tools at its disposal to stimulate the economy and inflation should it find necessary to act. Those are the words that sent the Euro tumbling another round and we are now at 1.2766.

Our analytics yesterday have highlighted this danger, but we were caught wrong footed by expecting some sort of a correction. Long term support in this pair lies around 1.2750, which is the monthly chart we’re walking about, so this level could be strong.

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[B]AUD/USD Forecast 30 Sep 2014[/B]

[I]Looking for direction of the next big move of the Australian dollar[/I]

The Australian dollar has somewhat stabilized this week after closing in on January’s lows around 0.8660. The next move will largely depend on data out of the US, but for now it seems that there is an inside potential. What will make us take a position here is a break above the downward trend line which we have highlighted on our chart.

We would be buying daily calls for tonight and tomorrow if we see this pair close on an hourly basis above the trendily which we see coming down to the 0.8755-60 area. Any close above 0.8760 will warrant a move to the upside which will result in an upside move towards 0.8800.

The fundamental reason for this trade is the weak economic data we have seen from the US lately with the only bright light being the number of new homes sold last week. Today we got indications that consumer sentiment is the next shoe to drop as the number came in way weaker than expected.

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EUR/USD Forecast 03 Oct 2014

[I]The euro is on its way lower today, but we think this will reverse soon[/I]

Just as we are awaiting for the latest batch of data to paint a more detailed picture about the labor market in the United States, we are taking a look at the EUR/USD pair to assess what opportunities we can get from the number released and what is more likely to happen until the end of the trading day.

Currently we are seeing the EUR/USD pair trading around 1.2617, which is towards the lower side of the range from yesterday. The levels around 1.2610 have been tested numerously after the release of the latest batch of European Central Bank’s communication, however as of right now we don’t think the EUR can go much lower.

We will focus our efforts on two directions providing different opportunities to different types of traders in our daily forecast. First we are going to have a look at the more risky scenario - taking a trade before the U.S. non-farm payroll numbers are released.

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[B]EUR/USD Forecast 09 Oct 2014[/B]

[I]The Euro is trying to make a comeback, but will it succeed[/I]

The Euro currency is attempting to make a comeback and test the highs of its recent weeks range against the US dollar, however its success will depend on a variety of factors like the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s minutes later tonight and the sentiment of the market towards future interest rate rises.

The Euro currency has been threading water for the past 24 hours when compared recent volatility in the forex markets. This is possible to persist until the end of the day, however with the event risk of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from the monetary policy committee’s last meeting, we could see some moves.

This however does not concern our analysis today, as we will attempt to gauge the direction of the market in trading tomorrow. With an expiry rate at 20:00 GMT, we would be targeting to buy daily calls should the price drop towards 1.2650 in the coming hours.

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[I]The US dollar continues to hold strong, buying calls against the Japanese yen[/I]

As we are drawing to the close of the week, there are still some nice opportunities in the binary options market. We are looking at the USD/JPY binary options forex pair and are determining that it is very likely at this point in time that the US dollar will continue its rally and cement its position higher at the end of the week.

The main reason for that is that a key trend line to the downside has already been tested three times and the US currency is holding strong, not giving up ground. We would be buying daily calls for tonight’s expiry at 20:00 GMT, around 107.80 if we reach that level in the coming hours.

On the downside, the move lower can only unfold if we see a drop in prices towards 107.60 and a subsequent close lower on an hourly basis. Since there is little information from the economic calendar going forward we are expecting quite trading to prevail and this event to be unlikely to happen.

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[B]GBP/USD Forecast 16 Oct 2014[/B]

[I]The British pound is gearing towards a break to the upside soon[/I]

As we have seen the best data on unemployment from the UK in quite a while we are exploring the opportunities for trading the British pound after the recent decline which drove it to almost one year lows. Binary options on the GBP/USD forex pair are currently trading around 1.5950, which is in the middle of the daily range.

The UK currency fell to an eleven month low towards the end of the Asian trading session on Wednesday as pressure from US dollar bulls was felt heavily across the board. However things have changed dramatically after the US released its latest retail sales figures at 12:30 GMT.

The report came out worse than expected and signaled declining consumer spending in the U.S., however this can be largely attributed to the dropping price of gasoline which has had an effect. The British pound took advantage of the negative data in the U.S., underscoring the positive unemployment report from the UK.

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[B]AUD/USD Forecast 17 Oct 2014[/B]

[I]The Aussie is preparing to take off in the coming hours[/I]

As the market is gearing for the final hours of the week, we are looking at prices for binary options on the AUD/USD forex pair. There has been little scope for the Australian currency to rally big this week. All attempts to the upside have been capped by aggressive sellers and short term profit-taking. On Friday however as we know, everything is possible, including a sharp rally.

The Aussie has suffered from lowering inflation forecasts, to increasing unemployment rate and of course the all vigilant Reserve Bank of Australia which keeps saying that the Australian dollar is overvalued. Well, the good news is that all these negative factors have already been priced into the market.

Meanwhile, looking at the charts we are observing a channel which if broken could bring the long awaited relief for those who believe that the AUD/USD should trade higher. We are for now amongst those, and would be looking for an opportunity to buy daily calls in case prices move higher towards 0.8770 again.

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[B]EUR/USD Forecast 21 Oct 2014[/B]

[I]The Euro is preparing for its next move, upside capped for no[/I]w

The Euro currency has attempted break to the upside as the key level around 1.2840-45 has been solidified further. The downside is likely to be the play this week, but it will depend very much on incoming U.S. data as the week progresses. For now the Euro is likely to trade around the 1.2800 figure, given the absence of major economic events.

We are closely looking at the chart and will for now stay put to see a break to the upside or the downside. On the way higher there is a very slim chance to break 1.2840-45 which should open the door higher for a test of last week’s highs around 1.2880-85.

However as we said, there is a small possibility for this happening before a break of the key level. Focusing on it, we would be buying daily calls for today’s expiry if the rate closes above 1.2845 on a sustained hourly basis. On the other hand, if we don’t see a big move lower, lets say below 1.2790, we could find ourselves in a position to buy.

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[B]GBP/USD Forecast 24 Oct 2014[/B]

[I]The pound seems to be gearing towards an attempt higher[/I]

The British pound is at the cross roads as it has been consolidating its losses over the past 24 hours. Even materially lower retail sales numbers from the UK today haven’t managed to cause a major drop lower which could be a sign that an imminent move higher is in the cards.

The GBP/USD binary options forex pair started trading on Thursday around levels close to 1.6040. The has been little evidence of a directional move as the flows were subdued in the beginning of the session as the all important UK retail sales number was heading towards the wires.

And it did come out at 08:30 GMT, revealing a larger than expected decline by 0.3% sending the British pound sharply lower to test Wednesday’s lows around 1.6010. As the pair spiked lower towards 1.6000, some shy bids emerged to drive the British currency higher towards 1.6050 as the trading kicked off in New York.

As US stocks rallied materially there was ample dollar demand particularly against the Japanese yen and the Australian and New Zealand dollars. There was not much merit behind the pair to make dramatic moves before the last trading day of the week tomorrow, as news were subdued and the main activity focusing on the Dow.

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[B]EUR/USD Forecast 04 Nov 2014[/B]

[I]The Euro is about to test a key upside trend li[/I]ne

WE would be wrong not to pay attention to the recent rise of the Euro in the aftermath of some hectic Monday trading where it lost a substantial amount of value only to recover later in the day and deliver some solid performance in the first hours of Tuesday trading in Asia.

While for now we see buying calls as the preferred strategy, we need some conditions to be fulfilled in order to maintain our commitment to the pair going up by the end of the day. Looking at the chart that would have to be an hourly close above 1.2550 to establish some sort of certainty.

On the other hand we are seeing some serious risks related to the single currency going lower in light of the Euro Area GDP forecast reports by the European Commission. Let’s look at those as an opportunity for now, since we are firm believers that there will be enough demand below the round figure and around 1.2490 to drive prices up.

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[B]USD/JPY Forecast 06 Nov 2014[/B]

[I]Japanese yen continues on its way lower[/I]

The USD /JPY pair has been on a relentless rise and many traders are voicing opinions that this can not go on forever. We beg to differ as the pair in our views is heading towards 125.00 in the long term. But until we get there there will inevitably be some setbacks.

Starting from the macroeconomic analysis there is a lot to be said about the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy action last week - the Japanese central bank decided to increase the pace of money printing and on top of that it promised to start buying riskier assets such as stocks and mortgages.

All of this led to a huge spike in volatility which resulted in the USD/JPY breaking to the upside and leaving everything in its path in shambles as the market relentlessly started selling Japanese yen and buying us dollars. The US dollar has benefited to day from a new form of risk sentiment which involved the midterm elections.

The Republican party has won a Senate majority and is now in full control of both houses of the US parliament. There is not telling how this might actually affect the economy in the long run, but generally republicans are perceived by the markets as more sound fiscal policy.

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[B]EUR/USD Forecast 02 Dec 2014[/B]

The euro setting itself for a move higher on Tuesday

As the final month of the year has started, we are seeing some serious moves taking place in binary options on the EUR/USD forex pair. While the European Central Bank prepares for its last meeting of the year on Thursday, the US data from the holiday season is weighing on the US dollar at this point in time.

The Euro has been fairly resilient in light of the weak economic data which came out of the Euro Zone this morning.The manufacturing PMI data from Germany came in at 49.5, which indicates that during the month of November the sector has actually contracted (this is conditional on above or below the 50 mark)

After this disappointing release, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Italy also came in lower than expected which proved to be a crucial take away for economists. Many now claim that unless the Italian government engages in a substantial labor market reform, there won’t be chances for much growth in the long term.

Despite the data headwinds, the single European currency has shot higher today, topping out around 1.2506 before pulling back towards 1.2470 after influential U.S. central banker Dudley said that a rate hike in the United States in the first half of 2015 seems a reasonable scenario.

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[B]GBP/USD Forecast 03 Dec 2014[/B]

The British pound is consolidating before its next move

The British pound has been rallying modestly this morning after hitting a daily low around 1.5620 in early European trading. The main reason for the rally has been the optimistic picture drawn by the data set released from the UK this morning, however the US dollar remains resilient.

The latest move in the GBP/USD forex pair is somewhat weighing on the current market sentiment, however it will take a more substantial move in order for us to pick a market direction with confidence. The pair is stuck within a range and we would like to see a breakout in order to buy our binary options.

The UK’s services PMI number has improved markedly to 58.6 after dropping somewhat during the previous month (56.2). The number was initially dismissed by market participants, however after about an hour the GBP/USD biying picked up steam to drive the pair closer towards 1.5700.

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[B]EUR/USD Forecast 04 Dec 2014[/B]

EUR/USD gearing for its next move as the ECB leaves interest rates unchanged
The European Central Bank has just announced that it is leaving interest rates unchanged and traders are looking forward to the press conference by the President Mario Draghi who will unveil the next course of rates going forward and clarify the stance of the bank towards any further bond buying.

The Euro currency has been consolidating its losses throughout the Asian and European trading session so far. The European Central Bank has left rates unchanged and Mario Draghi will take the helm and push the EUR/USD pair into its next direction in about 20 minutes.

Before such a risky event we advise binary options traders to look carefully at the opportunities presented for them and pick the direction where the market goes to. It all depends on what Mr Draghi says now so don’t fight the ECB, just let the words of its president guide the market and follow it.

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[B]GBP/USD Forecast 09 Dec 2014[/B]

British pound poised for a rally against the US dollar

The British pound has performed well on Monday and we are holding the view here, at Binary Options Post that this rally is the first of a couple of days of nigher closes. As the UK interest rates path clears out we are looking at the GBP/USD pair halting its recent decline due to speculation about the Federal reserve hiking rates.

The GBP/USD currency pair has traded in a very interesting way throughout the day with the Britihs pound coming up on top and rallying some 0.5% and reversing its recent fortunes after the amazing non-farm payrolls report which the U.S. department of labor unveiled last Friday.

The pair started the day marking a new multi-month low around 1.5540, which was neglected by the bears and skipped as a factor in early London trading as the British pound rallied strongly throughout the whole day pretty much.

The decline during the Asian session was only repeated towards the end of U.S. trading, but the GBP/USD pair retreated only mildly to test the support level around 1.5645. Subsequently, the base held at that level and we are currently seeing a modest rebound towards 1.5655.

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[B]EUR/USD Forecast 10 Dec 2014[/B]

Euro gearing for another leg higher this morning

As risky assets across the board are being sold off, short positions in the Euro currency have also been diminishing in recent sessions. The EUR/USD exchange rate has marked quite a rally yesterday, however it proved to be short lived. After soaring initially towards 1.2450, the pair ended New York trading around 1.2380.

The main factor behind the US dollar weakness has been the sentiment on the global stock markets. Yesterday the Athens stock exchange has fallen 13% triggering liquidation of long positions across assets in the whole wide European Union stock markets.

With liquidity in the Euro Zone drying up, despite the persisting negative environment, the pair has benefitted from flows back into the single European currency. With the EUR/USD trading close to 13.5% lower this year we see a correction towards the end of the active trading period this year as more than likely.

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[B]AUD/USD Forecast 11 Dec 2014[/B]

Where is the Australian dollar going next?

As the Australian unemployment rate has hit a decade high of 6.3% this morning in Asian trading, the country’s economy created 42,700 jobs against an expectation predicting about 17,000. Despite this all the pair managed to do is revisit the highs around 0.8370 and present a put buying opportunity for vigilant traders.

The main question in the AUD/USD pair is the usual one - where are we going next? While several bulls on the pair have been expecting it to hold above 0.8300 in the near term, we are still seeing the Australian dollar underperforming across the board, primarily due to concern about China.

The case is no longer compelling to go long on the AUD/USD, but we have to note here that some big analysts are calling the bottom in this binary options forex pair. Morgan Stanley has announced yesterday that they are entering into a long position from 0.8300, targeting 0.8500.

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