Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader - Page 11
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  1. #101
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    Mar 2011
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    Quote Originally Posted by purplepatchforex View Post
    Cool, so now we are are all clear that it's not the actual bar that tells the story, it's where it's at that needs to be established, this is why the Volume indicators like Better Volume and the like are just no good.
    I personally think, other kind of volume indicators made by market makers&brokers in order to mislead the people.

  2. #102
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
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    Hello,

    I try to understand better the background information. Here is my analysis.

    I marked the incoming strength(demand) with an up arrow, weakness(supply) with a down arrow. I also drawn trend lines.

    First I drawn trendline 1. Price formed a lower high, then I drawn trend line 2. Then price broke trend line 1 but the volume was low and price returned above the trend line 1 later. It went sideways after that, made a higher low and broke trendline 2 upwards. It was a succesful effort to push the price above the resistance. I drawn trend line 3 using the higher low made before.After this, price went sideways. Then it pushed up again with high volume. As time past, an ascending triangle formed. The price broke upwards from this triangle and headed to the old trendline 1. It had broken it but returned below later.

    If we see the volume on the previous down move it is higher than the overall up move volume. Does it suggest anything? Also on 4 hourly chart price made a lower high so the direction is down on that chart. Well, we still do not know that high is completed or not but the second 4 hourly candle has a long pin up.

    The black lines mark levels where I consider go long or short later. Also for short I would like to see more volume than now.

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    Could you please review my analysis? I would appreciate that.

    Best Regards

    Pandras
    Last edited by pandras82; 11-12-2011 at 11:18 AM.

  3. #103
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
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    276
    Quote Originally Posted by pandras82 View Post
    I personally think, other kind of volume indicators made by market makers&brokers in order to mislead the people.
    Wow, Talk about being paranoid .. I doubt this is true. Also, note that brokers don't profit from your loses.

  4. #104
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
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    24
    Thank you for your very helpful replies. I have added a trendline and fibs (Should have done it in the first chart already, I apologize.) I see the significance of the trendline. Price bounced from it four times, so I suppose we should wait for it to be broken before we can categorize a downbar on low volume as a valid NS bar.

    @Purplepatchforex: Yes, I can see how the first NS that I marked not only conflicts with the candlestick pattern but is also dubious (if taken in isolation, without considering background and context) because it was so narrow and could too easily have been a UpBar. But the main reason which invalidates a NS (any NS for that matter) in that particular situation is that a strong trendline needs to be broken first. Do I understand correctly?



    @Pandras: I didn't notice the third test. Thanks. Without giving the trendline enough significance I think it's too easy to fall for the NS after 'Test 2'.

    I can rephrase my initial question into “How do I know how many tests we need?” It seems like I can't really know exactly. Sometimes price shoots up even if the test was on relatively high volume, sometimes price comes back for a re-test even after a low vol test.

    What matters is that we should identify a resistance area and wait for it to be broken AND we wait for price to show a confirmed NS after broken resistance. Is this correct? But then again, I have seen many entries in the old thread where it goes “climax-->test-->ND/NS-->entry”, without price having to break s/r. It seems that one could always imagine a s/r trendline, so the question is when do we use a trendline and when don't we? I guess we just have to use common sense?


  5. #105
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    Jun 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hummels View Post
    I can rephrase my initial question into “How do I know how many tests we need?” It seems like I can't really know exactly. Sometimes price shoots up even if the test was on relatively high volume, sometimes price comes back for a re-test even after a low vol test.

    What matters is that we should identify a resistance area and wait for it to be broken AND we wait for price to show a confirmed NS after broken resistance. Is this correct? But then again, I have seen many entries in the old thread where it goes “climax-->test-->ND/NS-->entry”, without price having to break s/r. It seems that one could always imagine a s/r trendline, so the question is when do we use a trendline and when don't we? I guess we just have to use common sense?
    Hummels, I fully understand your question and it's a good one. Different VSA traders will give you slightly different answers on how they chose entry.

    In short it comes down to how aggressive you are. If the background clearly supports the reversal, I tend to be more aggressive then a sudden stopping volume with a less clear background. Waiting for a resistance (auto rally after stopping volume) to be broken, then a low volume test is not aggressive. Going off of a simple trendline break/NS is a bit more aggressive, and waiting for the actual trend to start and find a NS would be least aggressive of all, but can be quite a late entry. This is something I should discuss more in future posts. Thanks for bringing it up.
    Last edited by petefader; 11-12-2011 at 08:26 PM.

  6. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by purplepatchforex View Post
    Ok I'm not sure I'm answering the right question, but I think this graphic will illustrate an importantish point, i.e. that both sets of candles are in effect telling the same thing yes?

    Basically saying the same thing but in the example on left, price was able to MAKE PROGRESS up on it's close from the open, and since the first bar closed near the high..it's not looking as bearish and example 2 where NO PROGRESS up was made on the close relative to it's open. Of course it's out of context, so that's all I can say..depends where this shows up.
    Last edited by petefader; 11-12-2011 at 08:25 PM.

  7. #107
    Join Date
    May 2011
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    1
    Hello Pete,
    Please review my analysis Pete, I use volume and the bar spread, to identify weakness and strength, and the stochastic just for confirmation.
    I think "the big boys" tried to get the higher place to jump @ 10.11.2011, coz the up bar @ 11.11.2011 volume is lower than 10.11.2011.
    And this is "the EURUSD down trend Part 2" from 8.11.2011 (weakness from H4 Chart). The weekly chart is in down trend, and the stochactic already crossing..

    My strategy for Monday are...I short the EUR @ 1,38000 , SL @ 1,39000. coz I think there are too much barrier (resistance area) from previous historical price. Strong resistance area between 1,39780 - 1,41180. So even if my position is closed at SL, I will short again @ 1,39000. And if price is start moving down I will double or triple my position after 500 pips (MT 5digits)

    with lower volume @ 11.11.2011 than 2 previous bar there is no way for the EUR to get the fresh new higher ground..since the stochastic is already crossing @weekly chart.

    Thanks a lot for your review, Pete.

    A Noob from New Bie Island

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    This is a clean version of my chart..since too many horizontal line identifying resistance/support from previous historical price based on volume ..

  8. #108
    This is where things start to get a little tricky for me. This image was just after a re-accumulation phase that broke out to the upside through resistance. The 3.6p level is another area of resistance historically. The bar I have highlighted is obviously showing supply coming in as it touches that area above, however, it is also a down-bar, with next bar up, so could this be viewed as a lot of strength with buyers absorbing supply?

    I also get confused by definitions of a down bar as compared to a down day (in relative terms here as this is a 15 minute chart - a down day here would obviously be a down compared to the previous bar). Is one more important than another when looking for stopping volumes i.e. can we have stopping volume in an uptrend where the very high volume comes in on a down day (compared to the previous bar close), but is also an up bar going by the current day/bar open? Is it purely the close relative to the open we should be focussing on primarily?

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    Last edited by tehmac; 11-13-2011 at 06:10 AM.

  9. #109
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
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    6
    how are you choosing the best time frame to trading the eurusd?
    I think its an individual preference and depends on the personality and trading method some like scalping and taking small moves over the market others like the long trends.
    would love to hear what you think about it?

  10. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forprex View Post
    Hello Pete,
    Please review my analysis Pete...
    Another Daily chart?? The Daily is good for s/r, trend lines and Fib but as I already explained, I don't do VSA analysis on the Daily.

    You've managed to mention every time frame besides the ones I'm talking about here.
    Let's try to follow what I'm showing. I'm offering golden info on the techniques I use to trade profitably. I would like posters to be more focused on learning that, than trying to have me answer questions about things I don't even do.
    Last edited by petefader; 11-13-2011 at 10:49 AM.

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