Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader

Welcome. On MT4 go to: Insert/Indicators/Volumes/Volumes. You’ll have exactly what I’m using and can you adjust the color and width of the bars.

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I missed your question earlier. Yes, your posts are encouraged…in this thread now. Sure, any market will do. The principles are the same.

Thank you Pete. This would be a fantastic experience for myself and all readers of this thread - newbies as well as seasoned ones. Newbies can learn/discuss alongside with me, the veterans can also jot down their thoughts, Pete can see if we’re interpreting right. This thread would be pretty exhaustive. I’ll be posting every weekend. As I told before, I’ll be posting stocks (Daily charts) and not forex - don’t mind with why and which but these are from live markets. So, here we go:


In the charts above at position:

#1) “Weakness - when it appears, it appears in UP bar” I remember this line. In that bar we see that it’s an UP bar. The next bar closes down. Volume is very high - the pro showed their hand. So, we see signs of weakness. But that very bar closes at higher half! Was there more buying then selling?

#2) The market gapped down considerably. All bulls are trapped. Again, the volume is huge! - pros created huge selling pressure overnight. The bar closed almost at middle.

#3) High vloume with wide spread bar. The bar closes at upper half. next bar closes down - it’s a down bar. More weakness?
But, as the bar closed at upper half, we can conclude that there was more buying - again “Weakness - when it appears, it appears in UP bar”

#4) Down bar with relatively higher volume than before. Second buying wave from pros? Maybe a sign of strength?

#5) Down bar with volume higher than #4) - Third wave of buying from pros? Maybe a sign of strength?

#6) Up bar with almost same volume as #5). What just happened here?

#7) Very wide spread UP bar high volume compared to last couple (10) days. Bar closes at higher half. Who’s buying? Why’s spread so wide?

#8) Very wide spread UP bar ultra high volume! Bar closes at upper half. What’s going on? Next bar closes down. Is this buying or selling from pros?

Overall, I see a shift in sentiments of the pros in the above chart from selling (left half) to buying (right half of chart).

So, these are my thoughts about this particular chart. I might missed or overlooked couple of factors in here, feel free to point out those and also say it where I’m getting it wrong.

Thanks

Hey, I have been trading for over a year now. Seven months of VSA trading. I was taught by Pete’s thread but also by other VSA resources. I trade both Pete’s FIB method AND my own VSA setups when they scream at me.

This is my last trade on EUR/USD M5. High volume on large up-bar is a buying climax, which was followed buy confirming decreasing volume and ND’s. I entered on the brake of low of the ND, my SL was right above the buying climax giving me nice R:R. I took profit once it slowed down at +25 pips. Comments and thoughts are welcomed. :cool:

nice to be yehhhhhhhhh…lol

Hey Sagi, yes that entry differs from mine because I would look for the ND once price started moving down away from the high…because, that is an area where we saw high volume supply come in, and if there is [I]low[/I] volume there, it may be showing that the supply is no longer there is such large amounts, and could go for another leg up.

I’ll say, the majority of VSA traders would agree with that setup…in my experience I’ve found that if price were to continue up, it would usually see low volume at the top as well.

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Good interpretation, I’m sure your posts will be beneficial. You might want to consider even more the reaction to high volume points…as in the next candle. For example, example 2 could have been a sign of strength had the next candle closed higher. Whenever I’m unsure what exactly went on during a high volume candle, I look to the next candle to clarify things.

Background is mixed, range. I see more supply than demand today so far. I’m simply watching the reaction to this level now.


Wicked man, I was looking at the chart and was thinking, as good as you are, and as good as this strategy is, you have to stay out when it’s like this, and hey presto I click on the thread and that is exactly what you said, I learned the hard way to stay, you probably did? I think most of have, but it don’t matter how good you do when the market is behaving nicely, you have to stay out at times like this.

I agree with you. I’ve not made a trade so far this week but I’m watching every move though. Patience is everything in this game.

And remember, do as I say not as I do, it’s the difference between me being a mega profitable trader and a reasonable one, it’s just so easy to lose those gains, so easy to convince yourself that those high volumes are the end of that trend, this is why I keep banging on about continuing trends, less subjective, less of a chance to talk yourself into a losing trade.

Hi Guys, I’m going to dive in, first post on this method which I’m sold on but just trying to get a handle on its structure.

  1. What’s the first thing I should be looking for on my chart: high volumes or spikes, or neither, ??

maybe some fib retracements/recent high lows drawn manually.

  1. Should I pick 1hr to read off first base then drill down to 5 min, … or 15 min down to 5, I’ve seen a couple of different approaches to this.

  2. Once the accumulation (via a spike/volume) has been identified are we done with volumes, more often than not they drop away even though price does not always move at this point (on a 5 min). Bit worried I’d disregard them when they have more to say.

Thanks all,

Kev

Hey - do yourself a fovour, register again with the handle - pgPips - that would be cool!

In answer to your questions, they come over as shoulda woulda coulda and that’s exactly what we are banging on about today, when the market is indecisive, don’t trade, trade when it’s clear what to do, when there are no should I?

See (hope this dont turn into a thread of what not to do, but it really is an important factor)

ok, what made you come to the conclusion its a mixed bag today and stay out.

[I]and as good as this strategy is, you have to stay out when it’s like this[/I] like what, show me (please !)

[I]I see more supply than demand today so far.[/I] again, I want to see this.

there’s just one or two pieces I’m missing if you could help.

pgPips :wink:

Yeah. You’ve told me several times to trade with the trend and I didn’t really listen as I thought I was doing the right thing :stuck_out_tongue: I didn’t really get the 50-61.8 fib retracement and thought everything was stopping volume that would turn the market around completely. But I’ve come along way since then and in a very short period of time but that might be because I got the possibility spend atleast 6-7 hours of studying and practicing every week day and I have to say to all the new ones; [B]This is well worth your time![/B]

Thank you, but I think the real credit goes to Mr Fader, and in fact I remember SweetPips reminding me the significance of the Fader! (look into it (I think that’s the stage we are at with the market).

Please feel free to correct me if I’m wrong…

Thank you so much for this thread. It is invaluable! May I ask for some guidance on the following stock - how would you interpret the bars?

As well as the attachment below, here is a link to a much clearer/larger image. ht tp://oi39.tinypic.com/1zbdi7o.jpg


We had a few months accumulation area/trading range, which it then broke out from.

  1. I bought in here on the breakout from the trading range.

  2. VERY HIGH volume wide range bar appears here. Could be hidden selling?

  3. Even higher volume and wide spread closing on the lows (and even opened up). A classic upthrust with obviously a lot of selling going on. I chose to get out at end of the day on this bar. This would seem pretty standard, correct? I’ve seen this scenario appear often, and inevitably, it results in a retrace of some kind.

  4. The retrace is showing no supply bars (I think). The volume comparisons confuse me here and later on in the chart. It is low volume in relation to the first 3 volume bars when the rally began, but it is still high compared to volumes when in the trading range. Which should I compare it to? I am now looking for a successful test to enter again after I see these no supply bars.

  5. A low(?) volume test that is successful on bar 6.

  6. I enter long again here at the close of this bar. HOWEVER, I am worried that it is showing NO DEMAND. Is this something I should be worried about at this point?

  7. The bars around this point all show tails above (in the area of previous supply). Having seen the no demand at 6, I am worried that these upthrust type bars may mean I have entered incorrectly?

  8. I am still in the trade and the volumes increase and go through the area of supply. Is this volume again considered VERY HIGH volume, like the bars at 2 and 3, or is this now simply HIGH or NORMAL volume when you look at it against the retrace. Again, what am I to compare the volume to? I am now worried I may see the same pattern that occurred during bar 2 and 3.

  9. It is not an upthrust like bar 3, but it is on very high/high(?) volume again and closes off the highs in the middle of the bar. Is this a point I should be getting out? Or does it simply show that we don’t know who is winning the battle?

  10. The stock gaps down big on the open after an RNS statement from the company is issued (standard requirement after a large move in the stock) stating that they are aware of the surge in price and that there is no imminent news. People get spooked on these RNS’s and often sell out of fear. This bar has high volume also and closes in the middle. Again, what should I be taking from this?

  11. The market gaps up and goes higher on even higher volume again. Is this a good sign that the drop was in fact full of big buyers taking advantage of the fear drop? However, with the higher volume, does this again involve a lot of selling? I think we need to wait for the next bar?

  12. A mid close on still quite higher volume. More churn between buyers and sellers. Is this a negative sign after bar 11? I don’t know how to interpret this.

General Questions
I know that weakness comes in on up bars and strength comes in on down bars, but despite reading Master the Markets and a lot on VSA, I am still slightly confused. Should we be analysing all down bars when during a rally also? For example, even if I have seen no signs of weakness on the up bars, if I see volume that is high volume (or at least not low volume) on any down day/bar, I get worried that this is more supply appearing in the market. These down day bars are irrelevant if I see no weakness on up bars though, right? Because smart money can only get out on up bars.

Last question: How is the market able to move up again in the above chart at point 6 and onwards, after the heavy selling by big money at point 3?

Thanks a lot. Your thoughts are very much appreciated.

I hope it is not forbidden here to play a little quiz.

What do you think guys about this? Where the price will move? Any idea with explanation?


How is the market able to move up again in the above chart at point 6 and onwards, after the heavy selling by big money at point 3?

I only try to answer this but notice I am a newbie.

Smart money monitors the market all the time and make their decisions based on the market movement. At point 2 they were already bearish. Then they made an upthrust to stop out sellers (who also discovered that the market is weak) and sucked up buyers. They got a lot of money. Then market conditions showed that lower prices were impossible so they finished to sell. Smart money swim with the market all the time and they have an advantage to know before anybody else what is the right direction. The market moves whereever it wants to. Smart money cannot manipulate it all the time.

Who knows? :slight_smile: I think we have a bullish tendency, but whether we see re-accumulation or distribution will be visible when price tests the area of that upthrust.

First we see ultrahighVol on sellClimax, stoppVol. Price goes into range (accumulation) and then shakeout/ successful-test with a following markup and an easy rally. Then the upthrust (‘hidden’ UT I suppose, with that doji in between), but it is on relatiely low volume. The low vol is also due to the time of day, but even on a similar time of day in two prior instances we had very similar volume: first within accumulation and the second time as price was pushing through resistance. So if the UT is genuine, I expect higher volume. When price falls after the UT we get steadily higher volume on narrow spread, which looks like accumulation. The main reason why I suspect re-accumulation is the relatively low volume at the peak.

@Tehmac: I’m a newbie, so I hope I get this right. The pins on bars on/around bar 7 show wicks on relatively low volume within an area that was defined by the pin on bar 3. The low volume here is an indication of exhausted selling pressure. The pin on bar3 definbes the area where resistance is tested, and it is now tested on low vol, which means little remaining supply in this case. The vol increases as price goes into markup and breaks resistance.