Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader

I was also thinking of the ‘rule’ “weekness is seen on upbars” is it not applied here? Because the previous up candle didn’t have much volume at all. Or maybe this is what you’re saying “experience came into play”.

True, the 1hr didn’t do the up bar/weakness thing, but I took it as weakness due to the pin on top, huge volume and most importantly the reaction. I also looked at the 1min chart to see the news action…that is an up bar. It’s really typical of SM to do what they did today…and even more obvious to do it on news. Just like I was talking about yesterday. I don’t want this trade to confuse people so…really just know experience played a part.

…my trail was just hit at 52 pips. I put it there because price is at yesterdays low…and I don’t want to sit though a reversal or hold over the weekend.

Understand why this rule exists. When SM sells high (distribution) they do it in a way that doesn’t mark down price yet…intentionally to hide their actions and continue to get higher prices from those going with the trend. Allowing candles to close bullish while they sell is typical. Plus, most indicators calculate by using the close of a candle…so it’s sure to be misread.

Today’s situation marked the end of Distribution with a fake breakout…a reverse up thrust news trap (reverse cause it closed bearish). I shorted on the assumption that the waiting for those higher prices was over for SM and that this was “it”. Again, it’s experience coming into play. After a while you not only have clear definitions of what to look for and do, but you know why you are looking for that…and if things deviate, you can get a read on things. For most people reading this, you’re not there yet but you will be.

Closed to soon eh? ok, I don’t cry over missed pips…usually lol.

Aah I see :). I saw obviously weakness on the 5 min due to the huge upthrust + high vol, but when the 1hr closed in the middle & bearish, I was more thinking “Maybe it’ll go up there one more time before the mark down begins”.

Anyway good catch and congrats to a nice friday bonus! :slight_smile:

So far it’s a 110 pip move with no draw down, off a no demand, after a news fake break up during distribution. You gotta love VSA…thanks Tom and Richard. :wink:

I have an alternative strategy in the November competition if anyone is interested in reading/voting.

Don’t shoot me down but it is not VSA … lol

SHI channel strategy.

Didn’t see the reversal coming this afternoon… I have a way to go before I get VSA sussed. Ah well next week is another week - only trading this on demo at present anyways… Back to the books and Pete’s video’s look interesting too - will have a look at those tonight

Regards

Froggy

“I have an alternative strategy in the November competition if anyone is interested in reading/voting.”

No thanks.

“Don’t shoot me down but it is not VSA … lol”

Bang, bang.

“SHI channel strategy.”

uggh.

“Didn’t see the reversal coming this afternoon…”

Obviously lol.

“I have a way to go before I get VSA sussed. Ah well next week is another week - only trading this on demo at present anyways… Back to the books and Pete’s video’s look interesting too - will have a look at those tonight”

I’m just having fun with you man, good luck. :13:

Stop thinking that cr*p. :slight_smile: You’re on a mission

…and thanks to you, Pete :slight_smile: Dont forget

Wow, who wouldn’t want a Wampa rug for xmas?

I knew this sell off was coming. Just want to make sure I was interpreting it correctly. During the European session, the price was moving up, but volume was shrinking. So that’s weakness right? There were a lot of pins over the course of this week on top of the bars, so that’s SM selling into the rallys, establishing nice short positions? Mid week, the down moves had shrinking volume, how am I to interpret that?

I think you forgot the T somewhere! :slight_smile:

Alright you guys - look I get the idea. I posted this trade idea before I found the VSA thread and started my real forex education. Let’s move on - I’m sure we can still be friends :slight_smile:

We’re friends here Froggy, just having fun…

Traderjoo I’m not sure why you are trying to analyze by looking at “shrinking” volume. Try applying the principles I teach in my videos on the 1hr chart.

What screams at you is Wednesdays VERY wide spread/high volume up candle, with a bearish reaction. That is a huge (literally) sign of weakness. At that point it’s the start of distribution by definition. (unless price we’re to continue up, but no)

Thursday had significant volume increases/pins when testing that high (weakness again), and friday was text book news manipulation, upthrust/fake break to end the distribution and start the markdown phase.

Now that it’s mark down phase, we look to sell rallies and NDs next week, unless we see large stopping volume to stop a down move…that would show us demand coming in.

I made this quick cheat sheet i have printed and put next to the screen to help me as i was getting a little confused sometimes even though I have been through the videos loads. Might be of use to someone, newbie like me


?!

Also a quick question…

When looking at a possible reversal point either stopping vol, buying climax effort to rise is it better to see a test on higher or lower volume?

Like taking candy… :51:

A “test” is a very general term so it depends where it’s testing. In the case of a buy climax, you may have a range that sets up to follow it. The bottom of that range would show remaining demand stopping the down move, so logically a ND test (low volume) would be ideal there to short…which is a common setup. Break/low volume test/continuation.
You could also call a shakeout a test…on that we want to see high volume.
My video on nd/ns should help clear it up, as well as videos coming in the near future. If you have a specific question about a test, post a chart and we’ll take a look.

A lot of high volume selling, then a low volume up bar? Looks like a trap to me! :slight_smile:

Fake upthrust I think it’s called?

Hang on now, can we clarify here, I understand it as a thrust being a fake move and so looking at a price reversal, but if it’s a fake thrust, does that mean it’s a fake fake so price will continue?