Understand why this rule exists. When SM sells high (distribution) they do it in a way that doesnât mark down price yetâŚintentionally to hide their actions and continue to get higher prices from those going with the trend. Allowing candles to close bullish while they sell is typical. Plus, most indicators calculate by using the close of a candleâŚso itâs sure to be misread.
Todayâs situation marked the end of Distribution with a fake breakoutâŚa reverse up thrust news trap (reverse cause it closed bearish). I shorted on the assumption that the waiting for those higher prices was over for SM and that this was âitâ. Again, itâs experience coming into play. After a while you not only have clear definitions of what to look for and do, but you know why you are looking for thatâŚand if things deviate, you can get a read on things. For most people reading this, youâre not there yet but you will be.
Closed to soon eh? ok, I donât cry over missed pipsâŚusually lol.
Aah I see :). I saw obviously weakness on the 5 min due to the huge upthrust + high vol, but when the 1hr closed in the middle & bearish, I was more thinking âMaybe itâll go up there one more time before the mark down beginsâ.
Anyway good catch and congrats to a nice friday bonus!
So far itâs a 110 pip move with no draw down, off a no demand, after a news fake break up during distribution. You gotta love VSAâŚthanks Tom and Richard.
I have an alternative strategy in the November competition if anyone is interested in reading/voting.
Donât shoot me down but it is not VSA ⌠lol
SHI channel strategy.
Didnât see the reversal coming this afternoon⌠I have a way to go before I get VSA sussed. Ah well next week is another week - only trading this on demo at present anyways⌠Back to the books and Peteâs videoâs look interesting too - will have a look at those tonight
âI have an alternative strategy in the November competition if anyone is interested in reading/voting.â
No thanks.
âDonât shoot me down but it is not VSA ⌠lolâ
Bang, bang.
âSHI channel strategy.â
uggh.
âDidnât see the reversal coming this afternoonâŚâ
Obviously lol.
âI have a way to go before I get VSA sussed. Ah well next week is another week - only trading this on demo at present anyways⌠Back to the books and Peteâs videoâs look interesting too - will have a look at those tonightâ
Iâm just having fun with you man, good luck. :13:
I knew this sell off was coming. Just want to make sure I was interpreting it correctly. During the European session, the price was moving up, but volume was shrinking. So thatâs weakness right? There were a lot of pins over the course of this week on top of the bars, so thatâs SM selling into the rallys, establishing nice short positions? Mid week, the down moves had shrinking volume, how am I to interpret that?
Alright you guys - look I get the idea. I posted this trade idea before I found the VSA thread and started my real forex education. Letâs move on - Iâm sure we can still be friends
Traderjoo Iâm not sure why you are trying to analyze by looking at âshrinkingâ volume. Try applying the principles I teach in my videos on the 1hr chart.
What screams at you is Wednesdays VERY wide spread/high volume up candle, with a bearish reaction. That is a huge (literally) sign of weakness. At that point itâs the start of distribution by definition. (unless price weâre to continue up, but no)
Thursday had significant volume increases/pins when testing that high (weakness again), and friday was text book news manipulation, upthrust/fake break to end the distribution and start the markdown phase.
Now that itâs mark down phase, we look to sell rallies and NDs next week, unless we see large stopping volume to stop a down moveâŚthat would show us demand coming in.
I made this quick cheat sheet i have printed and put next to the screen to help me as i was getting a little confused sometimes even though I have been through the videos loads. Might be of use to someone, newbie like me
A âtestâ is a very general term so it depends where itâs testing. In the case of a buy climax, you may have a range that sets up to follow it. The bottom of that range would show remaining demand stopping the down move, so logically a ND test (low volume) would be ideal there to shortâŚwhich is a common setup. Break/low volume test/continuation.
You could also call a shakeout a testâŚon that we want to see high volume.
My video on nd/ns should help clear it up, as well as videos coming in the near future. If you have a specific question about a test, post a chart and weâll take a look.
Hang on now, can we clarify here, I understand it as a thrust being a fake move and so looking at a price reversal, but if itâs a fake thrust, does that mean itâs a fake fake so price will continue?
No problem, I just thought it was mentioned before and wanted to double check, yes I agree and looking at the chart now, itâs about ready to go short I think.