Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader

I knew this sell off was coming. Just want to make sure I was interpreting it correctly. During the European session, the price was moving up, but volume was shrinking. So that’s weakness right? There were a lot of pins over the course of this week on top of the bars, so that’s SM selling into the rallys, establishing nice short positions? Mid week, the down moves had shrinking volume, how am I to interpret that?

I think you forgot the T somewhere! :slight_smile:

Alright you guys - look I get the idea. I posted this trade idea before I found the VSA thread and started my real forex education. Let’s move on - I’m sure we can still be friends :slight_smile:

We’re friends here Froggy, just having fun…

Traderjoo I’m not sure why you are trying to analyze by looking at “shrinking” volume. Try applying the principles I teach in my videos on the 1hr chart.

What screams at you is Wednesdays VERY wide spread/high volume up candle, with a bearish reaction. That is a huge (literally) sign of weakness. At that point it’s the start of distribution by definition. (unless price we’re to continue up, but no)

Thursday had significant volume increases/pins when testing that high (weakness again), and friday was text book news manipulation, upthrust/fake break to end the distribution and start the markdown phase.

Now that it’s mark down phase, we look to sell rallies and NDs next week, unless we see large stopping volume to stop a down move…that would show us demand coming in.

I made this quick cheat sheet i have printed and put next to the screen to help me as i was getting a little confused sometimes even though I have been through the videos loads. Might be of use to someone, newbie like me


?!

Also a quick question…

When looking at a possible reversal point either stopping vol, buying climax effort to rise is it better to see a test on higher or lower volume?

Like taking candy… :51:

A “test” is a very general term so it depends where it’s testing. In the case of a buy climax, you may have a range that sets up to follow it. The bottom of that range would show remaining demand stopping the down move, so logically a ND test (low volume) would be ideal there to short…which is a common setup. Break/low volume test/continuation.
You could also call a shakeout a test…on that we want to see high volume.
My video on nd/ns should help clear it up, as well as videos coming in the near future. If you have a specific question about a test, post a chart and we’ll take a look.

A lot of high volume selling, then a low volume up bar? Looks like a trap to me! :slight_smile:

Fake upthrust I think it’s called?

Hang on now, can we clarify here, I understand it as a thrust being a fake move and so looking at a price reversal, but if it’s a fake thrust, does that mean it’s a fake fake so price will continue?

My apologies, I just meant to say it looks like a fake upmove, expecting at least a small reversal

No problem, I just thought it was mentioned before and wanted to double check, yes I agree and looking at the chart now, it’s about ready to go short I think.

Um, maybe not though, you got steady decreasing volume on the down move, shows some strength.

Hey guys, I’m just getting on now. Maybe some caught that ND short for a decent scalp. It bounced right off smaller fib. though so maybe we’ll get a test of the 1hr 61.8 soon and another short…with a bigger move as a result.


I have to note that the 1hr background, or “phase” is simply a range, as I’ve talked about. Looking at the 1hr, friday DID hit stopping volume on the down move, showing buying from there. However, we know there is weakness at the higher prices of last week. As long as we look to sell high and buy low as usual, we have no problem with a range.

Good evening Pete, I hope you had a nice weekend :slight_smile:

I caught that one for about 18 pips. I’m also watching this now and a high volume test on 61.8 would just be great! I don’t think I made a single trade last week, maybe one though… I would really love some more action this week :smiley:

Nice job handling the 18 pip short. Once there was entry, the whole move was about 22 pips after spread. You must have been aware of the smaller fib and locked in…very nice. yep, keeping a lookout for opportunities.

Thank you! Yes I was aware of the smaller fib :).

Wow, and there it shoots!

So what’s the strategy around these big zones? Do we wait for the price to leave the zone on the downside and THEN wait for ND?

Right on top of my text lol. We couldn’t have asked for a better test to show weakness. Short entries are on as long as 61.8 holds.