Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader

Do you mean from the 1.3030 area? No

Wait 'till after the new now, there may be an opportunity to go long, but I think there’s more in favour of not trading than anything else.

We seem to be unable to break this new area of resistance, but there’s no indication of stopping volume either.

IMO, it looks like we are ranging and accumulating for right now. Your thoughts PPF?

Pour yourself a glass of wine and chill! :slight_smile:

I’m done, I’ll have my charts open for a bit just for observation, but otherwise, I’m done!

Oh how awesome it would be to trade in Europe. 8AM here and im headed to work!

0110 here. late nites for me, with a daytime job too. I will be happy to get rid of one of them … and keep the trading :smiley:

Just a quick question to confirm something. If you after you see supply coming in/potential stopping volume, the next candle is a doji (wicks on top and bottom match each other in length with a middle close), you just wait for the next candle to confirm strength or weakness in one direction, right? The confirmation candle doesn’t necessarily need to be the very next candle?

Hi Tehmac.
I believe that is correct. The doji in that case is a bit of an indecision candle and is therefore you should skip tot he next candle to see if there is a bullish or bearish reaction.
:wink:

Hi Pete (and to all who contribute and read this Thread),

I am studiously going through the other thread (1-500-pips-per-month-) and trying to keep abreast of this one which is growing at an alarming rate …haha… and watching the videos which are fantastic and much appreciated.

Through all these threads I catch a bit of talk here and there about price action and volume, retracing etc at Fib levels. Because I am only catching snippets of conversation and it seems like those involved already have background info so they understand what is being said, I feel I am missing a substantial part of trading this method.

I wonder Pete if there is a video (or part thereof) that has this info. If not, have you thought of producing one to specifically cover this area with trading Volume around Fib levels.

Thanks a million.

Pete (or those who may know):

If we are looking for the push through and test setup, and we have an established automatic rally high that is being pushed through, but the volume is high on the push through, yet not enough to bring it back down below the automatic rally high again, do we wait for a break of this new level of supply with a push through and test? i.e. it repeats with each new level of supply reached (following stopping volume and necessary strength in the background). We can just look for the push through and no supply setup each time?

I hate to be a punk about this but this is covered pretty well in the videos and in earlier pages on this thread. When price enters a fib level, you should expect high volume because this is where supply would typically fight with demand or vice versa. Lack of volume through that area, say for instance on a bullish move with strength in the background would mean prices would most likely be pushed higher since there would be a lack of supply in that area. It could also be an area of reversal. Check the thread here where there is discussion about No Supply/No Demand entry into a Fib (.50-.618) area.

If the volume is high on the push through, and low on the next down candle and not reaching the AR high, maybe creating a NS candle, and the next candle is an upbar that closes above the high of the previous candle, with strength in the background, isn’t this a vanilla NS entry that you’re describing? The push through supply entry is a completely different entry, you may have a NS entry coincide with a push thru entry, that would help confirm the move.

Can you show this on a chart please as I can’t understand what your trying to say. Tia

It’s all there, between 'Master The Markets. and Pete’s videos and the thread contents, it’s all there, it just takes a lot for it to all sink in, you just got to do it repetitively day in day out until you get all aspects of the strategy in place, it’s a very steep learning curve but you need to get a grasp of the basics first, then you will be able to ask more detailed questions and then get more detailed answers, and it is always good to post up a chart pointing out exactly what you don’t understand, I find that posting a chart with your interpretation of it helps, it makes it easy for the more experienced guys to help out.

Take learning to drive for instance, pretty easy, open door sit down, press clutch, put in gear and start off, then CRASH, you made a mistake, but you have a basic understanding now, you practice for a couple of weeks, then another lesson, you learn to use indicators and to go round roundabout, practice for a couple of weeks, then learn more, repeat until you become a competent driver, it’s easy with forex to think that you can look at a few videos, pick up a couple of tips, read the book and your done if only you understood it all properly - it takes time and effort and determination, success and failure until you become a competent trader, Pete himself said the other day something to the effect of that he is still learning and picking up some stuff, just like driving, I’ve been driving for over 20 years and yet I still realise or learn or pick up something new from time to time.

There aren’t any shortcuts to this, actually I think that this is the shortcut, but it’s still a long road, but heck, stick at it and you will never look back!

I agree totally, 5 years of screen time worked for me and I’m still learning / reiterating things every day. My q above was due to the fact that some of the prior statements don’t actually make sense when read so I wasn’t sure of the points being made. Have a great week all.

Apologies for the confusion. I am talking about looking for the “push through and test entry” i.e. move through AR high, then pullback to AR high region looking for low volume testing or no supply bars with confirmation.

However, Pete is saying that we do not want high volume on a candle going through the AR high, as that shows quite a lot of supply still around. Now, if on the next few candles it drops back to the AR high area (as we would also expect during a non high volume candle push through), but the high supply we saw doesn’t take it back through the AR high area to the bottom of the range again, if it just flops around for a bit and then makes an advance through the high of the high volume push through bar on lower volume, do we view this as a possible push through and test setup if we see the correct characteristics appear as it goes through this new second area of supply that was created by the initial high volume push through?

tehmac,
It sounds like you’re fishing for an entry that isn’t there given your example. Basically a low volume push thru that was preceeded by a high volume push thru? Almost sounds like a sign of weakness. Best to sit back and let the entry come to you rather than make the entry fit the situation. I personally don’t like the setup you’re talking about, the price would be well off the low and most likely be entering in a reversal with that much supply you describe. Trying to visualize this would exceed any R:R that I would want to take on a trade.

No no. I’m talking about a high volume push through of the AR high, followed by a low volume push through of the high of the high volume push through candle. Make sense now?

Hey, how 'bout that e/u lol. I’ve just been thinking. I could go on forever answering questions in here, but at this point everything has been put out there. If people want to focus on anything at all outside of what I have taught, they are missing the point. It’s there already. Just do it, and make money. If you don’t get a setup…don’t try to invent one. Follow the path that’s proven.

What I’d like to see now is people taking what I’ve taught and filling the thread up with pictures of setups with a marked up chart. Continue to share and teach others. If anyone has a particular, CLEAR, question about what has been taught…please ask. There are helpful people here, and I’ll still help out.

Again. No experiments, no hypothetical setups that change what I have shown. Other people trade VSA differently from my personal tailored method, I understand that. If you take a trade that differs from my teaching…spare me. You can always start another thread. I’m going to trade 2012 just like I traded 2011. There is nothing to do but follow the method and make the money. I think this is best for everyone at this point.

I hope you all see the wisdom in this. Reading and understanding the market is hard enough, and this narrowed down, clearly defined method brings it within reach. Proceed. :slight_smile:

By the way, who says rock is dead…

It’s a bit commercial for my usual taste, but I likey.

Exactly, well put. After all, we are talking about actually reading the market…the supply and demand from the professionals. Sure there are short cuts to trading “profitably” everywhere you look, and that’s had an effect on people, thinking they can make money fast if they find the right system. Not so much at bp anymore, as people seem to be thinking more about professional activity and dropping the indicators.

Learning to read professional activity…it should be challenging if you think about it, but I have it narrowed down to a few key, high probability situations that present themselves almost daily. ND/NS, push through, and low volume test/shakeout. All in the right place/context of course. And only 2 TFs to watch, and mainly 1 pair. The simplification is necessary. VSA can take you to a place of over thinking…some participants here have proven that for us lol.

So, to use your driving analogy again lol…we don’t need all the tricks, just to know what actions to take at the right time to get from point A to point B, and factual information. That in it’s self takes time to learn, but then it’s all you need.