The only thing I see on the internets is the job market report for the United States, but there has to be something else in play here. I mean, the jobs aren’t the worst or the greatest either here in the USA. I live here. But why the hop? I saw this with the German figures too. One day @ 0300, the market jumps 60 pips. I look all over the place for any reports that were coming out, dailyfx had some calendar stating the next event wasn’t until 1100, found another random site site saying 0600.
I guess my problem is speculating. Where do I learn to speculate exactly? I am tired of consistently breaking even because my spread sucks. If you think 3.2 or anything higher then 2 isn’t a big deal, it is. These providers need to start adding real or unrealistic spread to their practice accounts. It isn’t helping anyone.
I wouldn’t have thought there would have been such a huge hop. I am also seeing the price action occur way BEFORE the actual event jump in either direction. Does babypips have a speculation 101 section?
Per Dailyfx:
[B]Previous:[/B]
193K
[B]Current:[/B]
148K
Is there any books on how to judge these kinds of things? Or is it all “intuition?”
No speculation 101 section, but that is a great idea for a new lesson that we’ve already been considering.
Like any other skill or endeavor, intuition comes from experience, which usually comes from lots, and lots of practice and trial/error. Putting in the screen time and deliberate thought on understanding market behavior is the only way to get there…or a crystal ball
Hey Japanlover. NFP is something to be feared and respected. Thankfully my broker informed me of NFP Tuesday the day before and I closed all my open trades.
Last year one of my trades suffered horrific slippage because of a news release. I can’t remember the precise amount of slippage, perhaps something like 40 pips. My order got filled just a few pips away from my TP, so basically my trade turned into a 100:1 risk:reward. Just be careful about major news releases.
Unsure why the picture is so small… But this is a graph showing Oct 1 to 2 transition. Why 30 min after midnight the bottom occurs? Why didn’t it continue?
I see a bunch of JPY action going on. I see some AUD action going on… 2100 the previous day. Fed Manufacturing is up. But I mean there was some price action changes going on, but still going in a downtrend. At 0045 the reversal starts. From 0000 to 0400, there wasn’t anything going on besides CNY and AUD. Nothing in the euro zone was occurring, nothing in the USA was happening because most people are sleeping.
From 0045 and up was nothing but up, up, up. Then the USD ISM Manufacturing (SEP) was up at 1400 hrs. Even before that news hit, at 1145 hrs, the market skyrockets. 1400 hits and the market has already leveled out.
Your impression that the market will follow news releases only, and make sense, is false.
Supply and demand move price, and that may or may not be affected by news. Money is always being moved around for profit and/or necessity. There are millions of participants. You want to know why price moves up? Because there are more buyers than sellers. Supply and Demand imbalances move price. This applies to ALL markets.
