Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader

[fabulono1]

Can you explain why you considered it risky?

what pete says to SagiCZ apply to ur question too....lol

[fury]

View image: 27eu

Even though it was markup and we were looking for a retrace, would this have been a valid short trade, seeing stopping volume followed by no demand. I realize my feed may have messed up on the volume reading idk i use hotforex and the volumes have seemed to line up this far. Maybe a more conservative t/p, but on my feed this was slap you in the face volume and a place to ride the move down to potentially where sm would buy mode again? Or is this what u refer as picking the winner of a fight?

Realize this may be what Sag may have been talking about, but he didnt post a picture so I didnt pick up on it.

[Epidot]

View image: 27eu

Even though it was markup and we were looking for a retrace, would this have been a valid short trade, seeing stopping volume followed by no demand. I realize my feed may have messed up on the volume reading idk i use hotforex and the volumes have seemed to line up this far. Maybe a more conservative t/p, but on my feed this was slap you in the face volume and a place to ride the move down to potentially where sm would buy mode again? Or is this what u refer as picking the winner of a fight?

Realize this may be what Sag may have been talking about, but he didnt post a picture so I didnt pick up on it.

I dont no but your volume looks very dodgy... nothing like IBFX volume

[petefader]

View image: 27eu

Even though it was markup and we were looking for a retrace, would this have been a valid short trade, seeing stopping volume followed by no demand. I realize my feed may have messed up on the volume reading idk i use hotforex and the volumes have seemed to line up this far. Maybe a more conservative t/p, but on my feed this was slap you in the face volume and a place to ride the move down to potentially where sm would buy mode again? Or is this what u refer as picking the winner of a fight?

Realize this may be what Sag may have been talking about, but he didnt post a picture so I didnt pick up on it.

Looks like you have a good grip on the situation. Shorting a 5 min climax during a markup because you expect a retrace (that will probably be bought up again) is reasonable. It is technically going against the phase, which I rarely do..but I do it in the right situation, on smaller risk. The reason being pretty obvious, that if SM is in a markup that hasn't hit climactic 1hr supply, they are going to buy it on the way down, expecting another leg up. So that can limit the potential of the move. SM doesn't really have your back on the trade so to speak.

By the way, the 1hr was also an upthrust (fake breakout, sign of weakness) when you shorted..adding to the probability of it playing out. I was waiting for the long off fib today, got in above it (au was it fib) but closed early at BE after 16 gmt..became slow..then Bernanke speaking.

[petefader]

I dont no but your volume looks very dodgy... nothing like IBFX volume

Yep, get the IBFX demo for volume.

[Epidot]

I am looking at the 5 min and 1 hour chart today and I have no idea how to search for short or long trades. What have we got to play off of? Is it too dangerous to trade when your looking for a retrace? Is it best to trade off of the fib area?

That huge up thrust at 9am is a buying climax right? So am i right in saying that the trade for today was the 9:20 ND, the 9:45 ND and the 11:25am ND GMT time? and obcourse this is not a retrace to the 50-618a area..

I take it that this was the trade to take?

BTW.. the black histogramm indicator is the bar spread. Makes it easier for me to see the small or big spread bars quickly without having to browse the chart. Let me know if you want me to upload it.

[petefader]

Thinking ahead..

[purplepatchforex]

@Epidot - I took that trade off the ND on the 15m, it was coming back into the mid Fib area, so I figured it would at least range there and give me a few pips, but it headed back past, so nice trade.

It's one I've posted up on my site actually - New

[purplepatchforex]

Thinking ahead..

I'd say yes, but we know the market will reserve the right to do something totally different!

[Epidot]

Is there any reason why now wouldnt be a good time to short? price is falling down to the fib on low inactive volume. Looks to be going to the 50% fib on the 1 hr so why not have a trade running now? why ust in the London session?