Hello fellow pippers! Very glad I found the excellent babypips site and forum. I am a newbie from the UK, learning my way on the EUR/USD pair. So you can imagine what a rough (but fortunately profitable) ride I’ve had for the last couple of weeks!
Anyway (and the usual apologies if this has been covered before), but my question is this:
Being in the UK, I start looking at trading EUR/USD on the open, 10pm GMT Sunday. Four times when I have done this, I have seen a large gap between Friday’s 10pm closing price, and the opening price 10pm Sunday. From memory, it was much lower 3 times, and much higher once. Accordingly, I have traded 3x long, and 1x short, on the simple-minded prediction that, within a short-ish time frame, the open price would return to wherever it was at the close Friday. And it has, four times. The last time it happened, I was slightly more intelligent, and saw a large down candle in the last minute of Friday’s trading - so I set my TP (long) at the top of that candle on Sunday’s open. (As I said, only [I]slightly[/I] more intelligent!)
Generally, I trade with volume and big news events, but this pattern seems to repeat and I’ve made four profitable trades. But I’m worried that this is just a case of a newbie being right four times and thinking this will always happen. What do you more experienced hands think?
Cheers to all!
TwoDogs