Trading Crude Oil - Page 15
Page 15 of 19 FirstFirst ... 5 13 14 15 16 17 ... LastLast
Results 141 to 150 of 190
  1. #141
    Manxx's Avatar
    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    772
    Quote Originally Posted by Jezzode View Post
    I actually hope more people here see the value within this thread - I've never ever looked into Oil.
    But, from looking at these charts, and more importantly the analysis behind them it starts to ask the question "is there actually a world outside of FX" (even though what works should not 'apparently' be changed)
    Even though I don't comment, perhaps because I feel I don't know enough Manxx, I still read each of your posts.
    Keep it up.
    Quote Originally Posted by av0224 View Post
    Very valuable insights and good starting point for the beginners.
    Please keep up the good work.
    Thank you both for the reassurance!

    Maybe, if there are readers here, then this would be a good point to revisit what are my intentions here with this thread!

    Crude Oil is a new trading market for me. Although I have traded interest rates and currencies for many years, I have never seriously traded a concrete, tangible, commodity before. Much of the trading environment is the same, but much is also very different. A physical commodity also has an entire industry around it which also adds a huge dimension of simple plain interest in addition to the direct fundamentals and price action.

    So I started this thread as a "Newbie"s venture into a new world of commodity trading, where anyone who is interested can explore the nature of the commodity, and its industry, and its various participants, in addition to trading the market itself.

    I am trying to form a personal commentary and opinion as I learn about, and explore, the various forces at work in this market, but also using technical analysis to confirm or reject my views, and to provide reference points for timing and appropriate levels for trade entries and exits. I am therefore posting charts purely to illustrate my thoughts and current price activity. I am not looking to promote a specific trading method here. Although, of course, technicals is another relevant area open to discussions!

    I am not focusing on any particular timeframe for trading and am using a Daily, 4H, 1H and sometimes a 15m analysis. My trades tend to be intraday/overnight at present simply because of my historic trading style, but I am looking to stretch my horizons to include longer term positions as well depending on the market view.

    I keep a strict money management control over trading but I do not maintain any kind of targets objectives. I believe the market can only give what its price movements can offer. My concern therefore is only to read the movements and the underlying market/industry factors and to make disciplined trades accordingly, and to thereby make a profit on my trades according to, and limited by, what the market will offer. In this way, the cumulative size of those profits is a reflection of quality of the overall market movement at the time rather than a pursuance of a fixed percentage gain regardless of market conditions. I don't ever want to feel pressurised into finding a trade even when there isn't a sensible one to be found just to reach some pre-defined target percentage that has no bearing on the market's ever-changing characteristics. The market is the boss, not me.

    So my objective is both personal development and also to provide some background knowledge, stimulation and interest to anyone else who may be keen to try this market. And in that sense, as a Newbie myself here, any sharing of views, information, trading experience, etc is truly welcome!
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  2. #142
    Join Date
    Apr 2017
    Posts
    16
    Yes, you are newbie having so much knowledge on the price movement. Does not matter it is Forex or commodity .

  3. #143
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    USA. Pittsburgh, Pa.
    Posts
    993
    Manxx...
    I just want to let you know that I am enjoying this thread so much. And you.
    For calling yourself a newbie, man, you are intelligent. What good write ups you have!
    It kind of doesn't seem fair that you're doing all the leg work, which probably requires some hours, and then all we have to do is read this and then digest it.
    Well, I just wanted to tell you that this stuff is very, very interesting.
    You just might bring me into it.

    GOOD JOB MANXX!!!

    Mike

  4. #144
    Manxx's Avatar
    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    772
    Quote Originally Posted by av0224 View Post
    Does not matter it is Forex or commodity .
    You are right that there are many similarities and the trading issues like risk and funds management are generic, but there are also other trading issues which are different.

    I was not aware, for example, of the existence or significance of the EIA weekly crude inventories figures, or who is the EIA and who is the IEA, etc. Commodities have their own equivalents of forex NFP, FOMC, etc. I have also yet to witness how the bid/offer reacts in unexpected major critical events.........maybe I am over-cautious, but I don't think that is such a bad vice!

    Also, it takes time to familiarise and adjust to the typical scale of moves and where to place sensible stops and targets, etc. CFD's are different to spot forex and have different characteristics and a spread of 5 pips instead of 0.2-3 pips and a small commission makes a big difference to what kind of trading to look for.

    But, yes, I agree, the changeover was not as dramatic as I had feared it might be - at least not yet..........

  5. #145
    Manxx's Avatar
    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    772
    Quote Originally Posted by MikeWolski View Post
    Manxx...
    I just want to let you know that I am enjoying this thread so much. And you.
    For calling yourself a newbie, man, you are intelligent. What good write ups you have!
    It kind of doesn't seem fair that you're doing all the leg work, which probably requires some hours, and then all we have to do is read this and then digest it.
    Well, I just wanted to tell you that this stuff is very, very interesting.
    You just might bring me into it.

    GOOD JOB MANXX!!!

    Mike
    Hi Mike! Good to see you here! I have been spying in on your journal from time to time - an interesting journey you have been making as well!

    I am glad you find the content interesting here. I enjoy exploring the sources of information and the entire industry fascinates me. It also leads to a lot of new learning about, for example, countries that I previously knew little about, organisations, economies, geological and technological matters, transportation and maybe a million other things.......

  6. #146
    Manxx's Avatar
    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    772
    We are seeing the current vulnerability to more bearish news following the EIA release which showed a smaller than expected draw in US Crude stocks (1 mill barrels v. expected 1.5 mill) as well as a higher than expected increase in gasoline stocks (rose by 1.5 mill barrels v. expected drop of 1.9 mill). Both figures describing larger stocks than anticipated.

    However, whilst prices are sagging and indeed looking vulnerable to further declines - it is not really happening - at least not yet!....there seems to be good support here around yesterday's lows and there simply doesn't seems to be any great selling enthusiasm here at all - but time will tell.........

    I am not going to sell at all, but will wait and see if we climb back above that 52.50 line again and, if so, then maybe that will prove sufficient buying interest to go long for the evening.
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  7. #147
    Manxx's Avatar
    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    772
    Update:

    Well I certainly underestimated the weakness here! .....and missed a reasonable short trade. But at least I wasn't long yet!!!

    Actually, I have noticed a movement characteristic over the last 2 months since I started watching oil movements. Compared with forex, although oil moves very fast when it does move, it often takes longer to get started and continues for longer than expected. There have been a few occasions where I have decided not to enter a trade because the market hasn't started acting immediately how I expected it to, only to see it move soon after abandoning the idea of placing a trade. Also, I have now several times closed a trade in profit much too soon, thinking the momentum has exhausted. These are good things to note.

    But, as I mentioned sometime before, I am treating oil trading as a kind of investment in a commodity and really pretty much only looking to buy. So a down move like this is good ,even if I don't trade it, as it provides better buy levels when the time comes - which it certainly will.

    I have come to like the idea of only looking at the market from one side, i.e. buying. For a start, it removes 50% of the problems of decision-making and also 50% of the mistakes! ....... or maybe I am just getting old!!!!!

    Funny though, just now, as the market broke those lows from yesterday, I was reading an article how OPEC and some other oil-producing countries are now targetting $60 a barrel as the minimum acceptable level to satisfy their revenues needs and to encourage additional investment in oil production for the future. That level is now looking a further 70 cents away......

    ....and I still wouldn't be surprised to see a rally back up again!!
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  8. #148
    Manxx's Avatar
    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    772
    Update to update:

    I surrender! I never expected quite such a drop! So no trade today and I feel a bit disappointed about that - and not just a little embarrassed, too! In my "former life" as a forex day-trader I would be going to bed with a big smile after such a classic chart move. But that is how it goes....

    I haven't really found much to explain the depth of this move yet and all the thoughts need re-evaluating tomorrow.

    But the one reassuring point from today was that in spite of my (wrong) fundamental belief that the market was still heading higher, the charts said the opposite and kept me out of the market. I always respect my technicals, otherwise they are a total waste of time. This is not some kind of technical "magic", we just have to always remember that the prime objective of our technical analysis is to inform us what the majority of the other market participants are actually doing right now. It is very humbling to accept that the market knows better, but to ignore that is to put your money down the toilet.......

    I am still sticking to my policy of being a "buyer-only" and in that light I am happy to have last closed out in the 53.70's and now in a position to repurchase from considerably lower when the signal comes. From an investing mode that is excellent - but from a trading mode? Hmmm, I really don't know. I admit I feel a bit amateur at missing out on a good and straight-forward move.......this is sooooooo different to forex day-trading! BUt there again if I was a stock market investor, I would be thrilled to bits about it!!

    Name:  1H 1904 4.png
Views: 0
Size:  20.3 KB

    In fact, I edited this to add the 15m chart just to show how easy this down move was!!!!

    Name:  15m 1904.png
Views: 0
Size:  28.5 KB
    Last edited by Manxx; 04-19-2017 at 04:00 PM.

  9. #149
    Manxx's Avatar
    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    772
    Yesterday's significant drop in prices, it seems, was sparked (perhaps not the best term to use when talking about gasoline!) by the surprise large increase in gasoline stockpiles rather than any change in crude inventories.

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 1.54 mill barrels last week, compared with an expected 2 mill decrease. Whilst crude inventories did fall, crude production levels rose to the highest since August 2015.

    This is what makes trading so delicious:

    One day we can be talking of higher prices from OPEC cuts starting to bite, geopolitical tensions, and investment bank upward projections (Goldman Sachs and Citigroup predicting $65-70 by year-end)...and the next day we are looking at a seemingly bottomless drop due to US increasing production and inventories, a Syria attack that meant nothing other than an impact on US domestic politics and a naval armada that wasn't steaming towards North Korea afterall! That's what's called dynamic brain stimulation (I just made that up!)

    Crude oil prices had indeed recently climbed significantly into the $50-60 range and the charts have been indicating a top-out vulnerability for a couple of days as discussed in above posts. This price rise was built mainly on the successful high compliance with the current OPEC/NOPEC production cuts. But this week's US production figures have again raised the idea that rising U.S. output is undermining and neutralising these efforts to reduce the global glut and achieve a state of balance in the market - all at a sensible price level.

    WTI ended up dropping by nearly $2 and was the biggest drop for some weeks.

    But behind these figures, the other current factors are still unchanged.Globally, the market is moving closer to a balance and OPEC will still be deciding in May whether to extend production cuts for a further period (and by how much).

    Needless to say, all charts are still in negative territory after such a sharp turnaround and I am watching the 1H/15m for the first signs of any return to buying - but it could be a longish wait and, of course, we may still see some continued weakness first!

    Whilst my own account equity "stockpile" didn't see any build from yesterday's move, it didn't suffer any draw either. So far this month, as at 19.04. we have had only 12 trading days and a long holiday weekend. I have made 12 trades so far, all long. Of these, only one was a small loss of 9 pips, and that was kind of technical as I didn't want to take an overnight risk and closed out and re-opened the following day. So I am reasonably happy about that.

    My main problem has been closing positions too soon, which is due to this phenomena that oil moves further per "leg" than I am used to from forex day-trading. I need to work more on my exit strategies! I guess this is also partly psychological as this is only my second month in oil and I am dedicated to the principle of "earn while you learn" so maybe I am too eager to take profits.

    Whilst it is often said that it is "never wrong to take a profit" - it can actually be very wrong in the long term. Because it destroys the risk/reward ratio that should underpin anyone's trading strategy! By cutting short the profits but not simultaneously adjusting stop-loss policy, then eventually your losses will start to degrade you profit potential and even destroy it totally. It is extremely important always to keep in mind that money management is not about one particular trade, but about an overall level of performance over a number of trades.

  10. #150
    Manxx's Avatar
    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    772
    A quick word on the Daily chart:

    We have now broken downwards away from that earlier range, and I am now focusing on what appears to be another significant range here at 51.35 to 50.75 that goes back a long way. I have circled several areas where this seems to have previously resulted in congestion and reversals, and may well be significant here, too.

    The daily ribbon is certainly weakening but we are still above that 200 SMA. On balance, it would seem we are more in the middle of a broad, level range rather than a new down trend as such.

    Name:  1D 2004.jpg
Views: 0
Size:  42.9 KB

Forum Sponsors

Similar Threads

  1. Commodity Market Trading Tips (gold, silver, crude Oil) Today
    By kittycriston in forum Trading Systems
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 03-21-2014, 08:38 AM
  2. Crude Oil Day/Swing Trading Thread
    By DailyCrudeOil in forum Trading Systems
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 10-22-2013, 11:15 AM
  3. Replies: 1
    Last Post: 10-16-2007, 04:38 PM
  4. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 05-31-2007, 04:47 AM
  5. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 04-24-2007, 05:00 PM

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
"Experience is what you get when you don't get what you want."
Dan Stanford