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  1. #151
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    Hi Manxx,

    Thanks for sharing your knowledge and trying to find the reason for a huge price drop. I am also in the learning phase of commodity but not with your style of learning frankly saying. I am novice in technical. What i used to do is, look for strong trend on any one of the commodity (NG, Crude, copper, nickel) and go for a trade. So far it is working good. Trade Opportunities are limited with this approach but at least 2-4 in a week.

  2. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by av0224 View Post
    ...... What i used to do is, look for strong trend on any one of the commodity (NG, Crude, copper, nickel) and go for a trade. So far it is working good. Trade Opportunities are limited with this approach but at least 2-4 in a week.
    Hi av0224, and thanks to you, too for sharing here!

    If TA is a relatively new field for you, what methodogy do you use to identify the strong trends? Do you just rely on a experienced eye on a plain price chart? I often use the toggle switch on my platform that hides the indicator "skin" so's I can just look at the price chart alone and then replace the indicators again over it - it does help a lot!

    I guess you keep you trades open for longer periods than just day trades? How do you judge when is a good time to exit your trades?

    Personally, I think 2-4 trades per week is an excellent amount. It indicates that you are very disciplined with your entry decisions and give adequate thought as to its potential beforehand rather than spontaneously or intuitively just reacting ona moment's whim!

    Great to hear that it is working for you Feel free to talk more about your experiences, if you wish!

  3. #153
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    Discipline after losing some amount of money without having minimum required knowledge. I just regularly watch the price of these commodities just to get feel of it. Keep an eye on forum discussions (i know only investing.com now babypips.com) for any important news or to see the mood of the traders as a sample.

    As a newbie just tried almost all the technical (not in depth) approaches and finally ended with ichimoku (learned very basic) . Whenever i see close to 20-30 degree up / down on the lines with cloud in 5m chart enter the trade. Else no trade. Use 1H 4H 1D to know S/R. The same should be supported with news/ opinions from forum along with my guts feeling.
    No carry position since i use leverage.
    Today is copper's day it was bottomed out and now moving up.

  4. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by av0224 View Post
    As a newbie just tried almost all the technical (not in depth) approaches and finally ended with ichimoku (learned very basic) . Whenever i see close to 20-30 degree up / down on the lines with cloud in 5m chart enter the trade. Else no trade. Use 1H 4H 1D to know S/R. The same should be supported with news/ opinions from forum along with my guts feeling.
    No carry position since i use leverage.
    Today is copper's day it was bottomed out and now moving up.
    Interesting that you should mention Ichimoku. I used to also find that useful in forex, at least on longer TFs. I didn't abandon it as such, it just naturally evolved into the MA bands that I nowadays prefer. (I have always been an MA fan - people often moan about them because they are so-called lagging indicators, but that is precisely why I like them, because they do lag! - and thereby show the current v. the previous ).

    My only difficulty with Ichimoku was finding a reasonable exit basis with it and it was through that need that I ended up developing my ribbons (now pipelines!).

    Just for interest, here are a couple of 4H charts showing how the ribbon crossovers actually complemented the cloud rather nicely, especially with regard to optimising exits (in fact I had forgotten how nicely! )

    The red circle highlights the region where the price started to look vulnerable a few days back and ready for the drop that materialised yesterday - it was already there in the charts!

    Maybe the ribbon crossovers don't show too clearly on these charts, as I tried to get as big a range in as possible.

    This shows the current period of strong trending:

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    This shows the period at the start of the year when the nmarket was tight ranging, the ribbon crossovers still helped to overcome the late entry lagging effect of the cloud in these conditions:

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  5. #155
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    I thought of asking about your approach using the band which is new for me.
    By the way the T & K cross over confirms the same, ichi might be little late than your band.
    For intraday 1H 4H S/R are the exit points i follow.

    Today crude is also showing good up move as i prefer in 5M but not convinced due to yesterday's fall.
    Last edited by av0224; 04-20-2017 at 07:03 AM.

  6. #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by av0224 View Post
    Today crude is also showing good up move as i prefer in 5M but not convinced due to yesterday's fall.
    Yes, there has been some upside in London this morning but stopped, at least for now, at that 51.35.

    My 15m chart reflects this move but the 1H warns me that it is too soon to buy yet, so I'm waiting to see NY action before doing anything more risky than washing my car in a day of brilliant sunshine here!

    15M chart small optimism showing, but:

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    1H chart, dark clouds still overhanging for now:

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  7. #157
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    Today is bad day , many of SL have been eaten it seems, No trade in Crude from my end.

  8. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by av0224 View Post
    Today is bad day , many of SL have been eaten it seems, No trade in Crude from my end.
    It has certainly been a roller-coaster - especially for anyone trading just off the short-term charts! Although I guess for a "floor trader" type scalper it was a fun ride!

    As mentioned above, the 1H chart had the shadow over it and that was not broken at all so there were no buying temptations at all today. and the 15m chart shows what a "yes it is/ no it isn't" day it has been.

    But it is not really surprising, there are very contradictory pressures in the frame right now and, although it has been an erratic day, the price range has been pretty tight within that new Daily range of 51.35 to 50.75 that we have landed in yesterday - if you look at the candle bodies on the 15m chart (when talking about S/R on a daily chart one cannot, of course, expect precision to the exact pip) - but "someone" seems to be finding value here. But it is clear there is still significant downside risk potential even here, at least in the near term.......

    In term of fundamentals, it really is hard to say where we go from here. Thankfully, we have charts! Personally, I am still convinced that the OPEC/Non-OPEC alliance will still do whatever they can to keep prices somewhere at least nearer $60 because their own government revenues are desperately in need of it....but it might be months of similar roller-coasters before that!

    Av0224, do you trade futures through a futures broker or CFD's?

    15M chart update:

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    1H chart update:

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    Last edited by Manxx; 04-20-2017 at 01:27 PM.

  9. #159
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    Here is one article with an explanation for yesterday's surprise sell-off, for anyone interested:

    Crude: Saudis go for the save | Futures Magazine

    Here are the highlights for those only mildly curious!

    - Saudi Arabia is trying to talk up the markets saying an output extension is all but done.

    - a 1.0 million barrel drawdown in oil inventory overall and in Cushing, Oklahoma the inability of the market to move higher started a cavalcade of selling.

    - At first, the movement was modest but an hour after the report, a big spike in volume started the market of its downward trek.

    - Part of the selling was perhaps due to the May Crude contract at the NYMEX is expiring,

    - but also due to a spike in computer related sell signals.

    - This morning we are seeing a bit of a rebound. After falling over 3% the market is now up over 1%. The reason is because Saudi Arabia is jawboning the market higher trying to remove any doubt that the OPEC and non-OPEC producers are on track to extend the historic production cut. Saudi minister of energy and industry Khalid A. Al-Falih said that “though there is a high level of commitment [to cuts], we haven’t reached our goal, which is to {get supply}to reach the five-year average. There is an initial agreement that we might be obligated to extend to get to our target.”

    So that's about it concerning yesterday! Time to move on to tomorrow......
    Last edited by Manxx; 04-20-2017 at 03:27 PM.

  10. #160
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    Here is an interesting graphic by EIA demonstrating the size of the cumulative production cuts by the OPEC/Non-OPEC group of producers. It is easy to see from this how these significant cuts should have effectively reduced the global oil glut......and also explains why record increases in US oil production are seen to be neutralising the overall impact by replacing a large proportion of these cuts.........

    Name:  EIA OPEC cuts.jpg
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    OPEC-NOPEC Have Cut 1.8 mmb/d Liquids Since November 2016.
    Source: EIA April 2017 STEO, EIA International Data and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

    Saudi Arabia has cut 619 kb/d (35 percent of total) and the Gulf States Cooperation Council—including Saudi Arabia—has cut 1,159 kb/d (65 percent of the total). Other significant contributors outside the GCC include Iraq (12 percent), Russia (12 percent) and Mexico (9 percent) (Table 1). Nigeria’s cuts are probably involuntary since it was exempted from the OPEC agreement. Iran and Libya–also exempted–and both increased production.

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