Trading Crude Oil - Page 17
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  1. #161
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    I trade in MCX-India as I am a very small trader and in a learning phase. MCX is a exact copy of international market.It is like watch international market and trade in local.

  2. #162
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    I felt commodity carry position is for big guys as they move the market. We are just an audience and ride the big moves with our little money. This is what i observed so far in commodity. In big move if I can get 0.3-0.5 % would be good enough for me.

    In my view Day / swing trading also risk here without any strong news. I am not sure what is the name for my style of trading. But it saves me at least from BIG loses.
    Last edited by av0224; 04-21-2017 at 02:13 AM.

  3. #163
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    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Thanks av, I will come back to your comments a bit later......

  4. #164
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    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Although yesterday's price action was very erratic the range on the day was small and the close pretty much unchanged on the day. This new range which is loosely and very broadly around 51.50 to 50.50 seems again to be forming a stalling zone for both bulls and bears.

    The flavour of the moment seems to be back to the oil glut and OPEC/NOPEC's chances of reducing it back to the 5-year average and raising prices towards the $60-70 range. The bulls are banking on an extension to the current agreement that ends in June to the end of the year (meeting on May 25). Whereas the bears are focusing on the record increases in production in the US and increases among other countries not participating in the Non-OPEC group, which they see as countering the impact of OPEC-led cuts.

    The simple answer is: time will tell!

    One comment I saw seems to underpin the complexity of this issue of balance between supply and demand and whether prices rise as a consequence of balance or not:

    "The latest IEA Oil Market Report stated, “It can be argued confidently that the market is already very close to balance.” What does that mean?

    Market balance means that production and consumption are approximately equal. That is an important first step for a market in which production has exceeded consumption for most of the last 3 years but it hardly means that $70 oil prices are around the corner.

    Market balance must be expanded to be useful: production is not the same as supply, and consumption is not the same as demand. Supply is production plus inventory. Demand is the quantity of oil the market is willing to buy at a certain price–it may be either more or less than production.


    Daily chart shows the current zone. We are struggling at the bottom of this and there is clearly still vulnerability to further falls (as voiced by some senior people in the oil industry):

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    The 1H chart showing flattening but still no sign of an upward turn in prices:

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    ...and an interesting "spring" picture from Reuters that has nothing to do with Crude Oil at all (unless we extend content to include global warming issues):

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    Residents view the first iceberg of the season as it passes the South Shore, also known as "Iceberg Alley", near Ferryland Newfoundland, Canada April 16, 2017. REUTERS/Jody Martin
    Last edited by Manxx; 04-21-2017 at 02:56 AM.

  5. #165
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    Out of the topic but just to share , today I am in Natural Gas.

  6. #166
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    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by av0224 View Post
    I trade in MCX-India as I am a very small trader and in a learning phase. MCX is a exact copy of international market.It is like watch international market and trade in local.

    I felt commodity carry position is for big guys as they move the market. We are just an audience and ride the big moves with our little money. This is what i observed so far in commodity. In big move if I can get 0.3-0.5 % would be good enough for me.

    In my view Day / swing trading also risk here without any strong news. I am not sure what is the name for my style of trading. But it saves me at least from BIG loses.
    Sounds like you have a very pragmatic and sensible approach to your trading!

    Seems the MCX is quite a big exchange nowadays. What are the Crude Oil prices there based on? Do they follow Brent or WTI or is there a more local reference type?

    Yes, we are all only minor, insignificant participants in big markets, whether we are talking of currencies or commodities. But even though we are not, even collectively, big enough or coordinated enough to have any impact on market movements, we do have a noticeable role.

    It is because of our collective volume and varied positioning that we provide some of the liquidity and continuity that the markets, and brokers, thrive on. In the same way that even the biggest river accumulates from a multitude of tiny raindrops..............


    ...Good luck with your Natural Gas today!

  7. #167
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    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Price range has been very tight and directionless since last night's close (50.695) and is trading right now at 50.69. We are still under that green cloud and even below the Daily Pivot all day so far.

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    Since it seems that US production v. OPEC cutbacks is the current focal point, the Baker Hughes oil rig count later today could be very significant and if there is a significant increase from last week's count at 683 then we may well see a sell-off into the weekend.

    Here is one graphic showing how the rig count has been continually growing over the last year. There are however, a number of opinions that the actual number of rigs is no longer so critical as there are a number of wells that are dug but not producing (DUC's). For example, in order to maintain drilling and rental rights. But in the current climate, a high number will almost inevitably feed the current negative bias.

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    Last edited by Manxx; 04-21-2017 at 07:16 AM.

  8. #168
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    With your experience, do you see a way to get to know traders sentiment? I am just thinking . May be vague but testing is needed.

    1. identify good number of forums ,
    2. Fix the time frame like day or from start time to end time
    3. Fix the key word by experience or the down the line can be changed
    Later this can be further sliced with particular type of users based on forum rating
    4. Do simple analysis with those key words , may be simple count would be good enough
    5. Combine that with your knowledge and decide

    No Manual work, just run few scripts that will do this kind of tasks in seconds.

    May I know your thoughts?
    Last edited by av0224; 04-21-2017 at 09:29 AM.

  9. #169
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    Crude is tempting for intra, but no rule violation since the cloud is flat , no traders from forum has correct direction and i feel the temptation and not the direction.

  10. #170
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    Great and clear move today , have you tried sir? I did after seeing the nice down side cloud
    Last edited by av0224; 04-21-2017 at 11:03 AM.

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