Trading Crude Oil - Page 18
Page 18 of 18 FirstFirst ... 8 16 17 18
Results 171 to 176 of 176
  1. #171
    Manxx's Avatar
    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    762
    Quote Originally Posted by av0224 View Post
    With your experience, do you see a way to get to know traders sentiment? I am just thinking . May be vague but testing is needed.

    1. identify good number of forums ,
    2. Fix the time frame like day or from start time to end time
    3. Fix the key word by experience or the down the line can be changed
    Later this can be further sliced with particular type of users based on forum rating
    4. Do simple analysis with those key words , may be simple count would be good enough
    5. Combine that with your knowledge and decide

    No Manual work, just run few scripts that will do this kind of tasks in seconds.

    May I know your thoughts?
    So you mean gathering views from commentators on various forums?

    To be honest, the idea does not inspire me. Generally, commentators can be divided into two groups: those basing views on fundamentals and news, and those interpreting their own technical analysis of price.

    With fundamentalists, hardly anyone posting on forums actually has any first hand information on which their views are based. Everyone checks through their various favourite information sources and compiles their view from that information second hand. If various people happen to access the same info sources and come to the same conclusions it does not make their view any more correct. Also there are almost always views in both directions and it doesn't make any sense to try and rank or "average" these.

    Also, what some people think and say is a different matter to what the same and, more importantly, other people are actually doing in the market.

    If you are already using technical analysis then you are really only attempting to achieve the same result through a different avenue - and one which, in my opinion, is far more unreliable.

    With technical analysis, my philosophy is that no matter how much I read or communicate with other people, I will never know what the majority opinion is, nor what the majority of people are actually going to do in the market - but I can see what they are all actually collectively doing.

    I can assume that, regardless of what people think, the only thing that really affects price is what they each actually do in the market. And the end result is that the price will move in the direction of the majority force at any one time. Therefore by analysing price I am analysing what the majority of participants are doing even though I don't know who they are or what they think. I do not need to also try and ask them.

    Therefore my own technical analysis will identify which direction the market is moving and how strong that trend is at present. It is then a simple probability exercise to establish which way it is most likely to go next and what risk/reward management to apply.

    And, naturally, if one is trading off a technical method then it is essential to have trust in it. And if you trust your own analysis, what benefit is there is also seeking other people's technical analysis?

    However, I do see an element of difference in what you are saying in that opinion does carry an element of predictive analysis of where we might be going next. But I am not at all convinced that there is any reliable source of opinion, or indeed a collective analysis of various opinions, that would reliably act as a sentiment indicator for trading purposes.

    There are various sources of traders' open positions data like, for example, COT and FXCM's Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI), etc, but I have not personally studied those much at all.

    But this is all just my own humble personal view, I don't know if it helps at all.......

  2. #172
    Manxx's Avatar
    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    762
    Quote Originally Posted by av0224 View Post
    Great and clear move today , have you tried sir? I did after seeing the nice down side cloud
    Well done!

    As I said this morning, the Hourly chart was still looking vulnerable to the downside and the price had stayed below the daily Pivot all day. The short trade signal confirmation really came on the 15m chart after price spiked very briefly above the Pivot but then closed firmly back down below again. A short position with stop above that spike and........

    Name:  15m 2104.png
Views: 0
Size:  19.3 KB

  3. #173
    Join Date
    Apr 2017
    Posts
    13
    Thanks Manxx for sharing your thoughts and it makes more sense to stick to what you are good at it.
    Sorry if I am spoiling your thread as this is my first interaction in forums. Getting back to silent mode and will read your writings.

  4. #174
    Manxx's Avatar
    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    762
    Quote Originally Posted by av0224 View Post
    Thanks Manxx for sharing your thoughts and it makes more sense to stick to what you are good at it.
    Sorry if I am spoiling your thread as this is my first interaction in forums. Getting back to silent mode and will read your writings.
    You are certainly not spoiling the thread in any way! You are more than welcome to bring your thoughts and ideas here anytime. You have already added to the overall content here - thanks

  5. #175
    Manxx's Avatar
    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    762

    Default Is OPEC in a lose/lose situation?

    Even a casual glance at the daily chart shows that we have seen a significant drop in prices this week, in spite of continuing strong opinions that the OPEC/Non-Opec agreement will be continued as from June.

    Prices have dropped considerably back towards lows seen in March and also discounting over half the increases seen after the OPEC agreement was first announced at the end of November last year.

    Name:  1D 2104 2.jpg
Views: 0
Size:  33.7 KB

    But the concerning factor here is that this is in spite of fact that the OPEC led group has achieved an extremely high level of compliance with the agreed cuts. The conclusion being that continuing increases in other countries' production, notably the US, is compensating for these reductions.

    The problem for OPEC is that if they continue their reduced production levels for a further 6 months, will they start losing their market share as other producers fill the gaps - and without necessarily even achieving the desired price rise that should already be starting to appear.

    On the other hand, if they abandon their production cuts in order to preserve and protect their market share they risk pushing prices further down and reducing their revenues in spite of their higher exports.

    Whichever way they choose to go, there is a risk that they will fail in managing to reduce global oil reserves, and in driving prices higher, and that they will continue to feel pressure on their overall state revenues and available resources for future development of their industry.

  6. #176
    Manxx's Avatar
    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    762
    Not much change in oil after an otherwise important and eventful weekend in politics.

    Technically, the charts are, naturally, still negative.

    We are now approaching the daily 200 sma and the upper edge of the support range earlier this year. The further we drop into this range and below $50 the more likely we are to see some buying appearing and maybe more "peptalk" from OPEC.

    For today I am not really expecting anything major one way or the other in the early hours, but let's see where NY takes us this afternoon. We may well see a touch on that 200 sma around 49.00. On the upside, we could reach the bottom of that broad range around 50.70....

    Here's the current daily chart.

    The 5-day short (entry level 52.275 on 18.4.) now has a stop way up there at 53.185 (high from 17.4. WTI) so not much chance of seeing that today (with the caveat of the ever-present unexpected geopolitical events) - just shows how fast and furious the fall has been.

    Name:  1D 2404.jpg
Views: 0
Size:  53.3 KB
    Last edited by Manxx; Today at 03:18 AM.

Forum Sponsors

Similar Threads

  1. Commodity Market Trading Tips (gold, silver, crude Oil) Today
    By kittycriston in forum Trading Systems
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 03-21-2014, 08:38 AM
  2. Crude Oil Day/Swing Trading Thread
    By DailyCrudeOil in forum Trading Systems
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 10-22-2013, 11:15 AM
  3. Replies: 1
    Last Post: 10-16-2007, 04:38 PM
  4. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 05-31-2007, 04:47 AM
  5. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 04-24-2007, 05:00 PM

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
"Tough times never last but tough people do."
Robert Schuller