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  1. #221
    Manxx's Avatar
    Manxx is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by RISKonFX View Post
    Do you ever find Fridays are pathetic, at least that's my point of view regarding FX movements.

    I rarely trade on a Friday, and in most instances Mondays too - but then again a three day week cant be complained about...

    I have a significant correlation between the day of the week and averaged returns and yield of trades taken for these two days, it's not rosy
    Hiya! Thanks for stopping by!

    Yes, I totally agree, I also used to recommend traders to ignore Mons and Fris. as I usually did myself. But I am in a transient stage at the moment. I had only ever traded currencies for many years, but I have now swapped over to crude and I am only in my 3rd month so far. So I am trying and testing and evaluating everything from scratch. Mons are clearly a non-event but I am not yet sure about Fridays, especially with the Baker-Hughes release on Fris which is, or at least has been, traditionally very relevent.

    I would even go so far as to suggest that the mornings generally are not very active and it is worth just turning up for the NY session.

    But not only have I swapped from forex to commodities, well oil anyway, but I am also trying to extend my trade lengths from intraday to several days or more - which is why I am also tracking Turbo's High-5 method here (on paper so far). It has gone well so far, but when backtesting it during the latter parts of last year it didn't do so good in Crude Oil! So I am trying to combine the best of my own methods with the High-5 principles.

    But I suspect you are right and Fridays are probably a waste of time here as well....

    Have you ever tried any commodities?

  2. #222
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    Quote Originally Posted by Manxx View Post
    I had only ever traded currencies for many years, but I have now swapped over to crude and I am only in my 3rd month so far. So I am trying and testing and evaluating everything from scratch.
    And how do you find the transition from FX to Brent from a PA point of view. I've often tried to simply overlay my FX trading system onto Brent, Nat.Gas & WTI; admittedly with little success [on demo]. The parameters certainly would require some quantified adjusting, which I just dont have the time do at the moment. Ironically though, my FX system is 'self-adjusting' from a volatility point of view.

    Unfortunately, the key driver of my FX system is using round number levels as areas of interest - if a certain commodity doesn't follow this routine then it's back to the drawing board when considering anything else other than FX.

    I have no reason to move away from FX at this point in time, but in the medium term future I would like to open up to opportunities within commodities and perhaps indices.
    Last edited by RISKonFX; 05-13-2017 at 01:06 PM.

  3. #223
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    Quote Originally Posted by RISKonFX View Post
    And how do you find the transition from FX to Brent from a PA point of view. I've often tried to simply overlay my FX trading system onto Brent, Nat.Gas & WTI; admittedly with little success [on demo]. The parameters certainly would require some quantified adjusting, which I just dont have the time do at the moment. Ironically though, my FX system is 'self-adjusting' from a volatility point of view.

    Unfortunately, the key driver of my FX system is using round number levels as areas of interest - if a certain commodity doesn't follow this routine then it's back to the drawing board when considering anything else other than FX.

    I have no reason to move away from FX at this point in time, but in the medium term future I would like to open up to opportunities within commodities and perhaps indices.
    So far, the transition has worked out better than I expected. I am trading cfd's on WTI rather than Brent. I chose WTI over Brent only because there is only a 1-hour break each evening whereas with Brent there is a 3-hour daily break. But I have been wondering whether Brent would afterall be better since it is a more widely used global standard than WTI and therefore levels like $50 are more relevant from a PA point of view.

    To be honest, I don't really have a "system" as such. I treat my charts as the "tools of my trade" and use them as guides rather than rules. They keep me disciplined but not incarcerated. Therefore they tend to fit anywhere, it is my interpretation that needs adapting to different circumstances.

    I think I am in a minority of one on BP since I just use a few MA's and their crossovers and don't really get on with PA at all in terms of S & R levels and patterns, etc. I tend to mess around a bit with my MA's but my core trading method has been the same for years, ever since I started drawing my own daily charts by hand in my banking days! My main interest is in using multiple timeframes, though, and I jump from daily/4H to 1H/15m/5m etc depending on how I see the current overall movement potential - as you saw last Friday, that was definitely a 15m/5m day!

    But I do feel that Crude Oil does tend to "honour" technicals. I have seen some S & R lines respected and the widely watched 200SMA does seem to carry some influence. But I think there are some very different fundamentals and practices in Oil that I have not seen before in forex. A lot of this is due to the size of interest from the industry itself. For example, after OPEC started its production cuts last December the price rose sharply but then fizzled out. It was not that the market changed from bullish to bearish but simply that the US producers, who have a B/E of $20-$40 per barrel started to lock in their profits for 2017 and 2018 and even apparently partly for 2019, too! This apparently is why the US producers can carry on massively increasing their production towards record levels regardless of where the prices go. Naturally, there is also the huge money management and hedge funds that are more speculative!

    I just like the fact that there is a concrete product and an entire, specific industry underlying my trading. It adds an entirely different dimension to trading and price movement. And the oil industry just happens to fascinate me. Its production, shipping, refining, companies, countries, environmental issues and general impact on global economics - it is never-ending!

    But it is scary, too! Oil sometimes seems strangely slow to react to fresh input compared with forex, but when it does move it is fast and far! Having spent the bigger part of my entire working career in risk analysis and control in banking and industry, I am more at home identifying and limiting risk rather than seeking it out - which is not maybe the best quality for a trader! So, although I would like to extend my trading horizons to days and even weeks, I am not ready for that yet! But on the other hand, the short term trading is quite ridiculous with 5-pip spreads on cfd's! I should, and probably will, swap to futures once I feel ready to continue long term with Oil, but that will mean changing brokers and I don't want to do that until I am convinced about this change.

    That's why this thread is just kind of me thinking out loud and not necessarily very reliable for anyone else! But it is great to chat with others like yourself sometimes too! So thanks again for your time and interest and you input is welcome any time!

  4. #224
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    Short-term trading still seems the best way as we approach the OPEC meeting (1Hour => 15m has been just great, but wearisome watching!)....but which means there is less to actually talk about!

    It is becoming difficult in the oil markets to understand why do organisations insist on reporting data which is not only contradictory to each other and but also totally out of line with the so-called "experts'" opinions. Is it that the data compiled by the organisations is so unreliable or that the industry analysts don't know how to compile it - or are they simply looking at different things? I mean, how difficult is it to add up the content of crude storage vessels at a certain date? Apparently very difficult!

    Yesterday's API release on oil stocks reported a build of 882,000 barrels in US crude oil inventories, compared to analyst expectations for a draw of 2.3 million barrels for the week ending May 12. Not only are these figures wildly different, but in totally different directions.......let's see tonight if the EIA is any closer to either of these figures!

    But the end result is we get headlines like these three, from the same author, only a few weeks apart:

    Oil Markets Whipsawed As API Reports Unexpected Crude Build - Apr 25, 2017
    Bullish API Data Prevents Oil From Falling Further - May 02, 2017
    Oil Prices Slip After U.S. API Reports Build In Crude Stocks - May 16, 2017

    OK, comment on issues like the likely impact on future stock levels and prices from OPEC developments, etc is educated opinion, but Oil stocks are current, concrete, factual data - so why are these reports so unreliable and, if unreliable, why bother reporting on them, or trade according to them?

    But, that is the nature of the trader animal, the elusive carrot and the eternal herd. It is hungry and wants feeding, and will eat whatever it is given - good, bad, or indifferent. And others are paid to feed it...................if nobody stirs the spoon we all get bored and go home hungry!

    We are close to the OPEC meeting now, and, as we already saw at the weekend, we can expect to see the surprise rabbits being pulled out of the hat. Russia and Saudi Arabia already pulled out the "extending the agreement beyond the anticipated year-end". There will no doubt be more of the same on and before the day....or should we say that if there is not more of the same then where will oil prices go then!

    The one thing that is for sure, oil price will continue its fluid dynamics in every which way it can - catch it if you can!

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    Whilst in the meantime the US just keeps on pumping like crazy!

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    Last edited by Manxx; 05-17-2017 at 04:51 AM. Reason: typos

  5. #225
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    So it is OPEC day at long last. Will be nice to have something different to focus on once this is out of the way. Since this thread is my kind of thinking-out-loud notepad, I haven't bothered putting anything here during the pre-OPEC meeting, but, when I came here now to write this, I am astonished........

    I have always been a little skeptical of the viewing statistics shown here on BP threads, but now I am really suspicious of their accuracy - how can the total views here have increased by about a thousand when I haven't even posted here for a week!!!!!!! This is not even a mainstream topic or commodity on this site that would have generated searches. Are there really people out there who have been reading this? If so I feel a little guilty as I have only really been writing to myself and not considered too much how what I am saying might be appearing in others' eyes!! Óops! I do believe that an OP does have a responsibility for their thread and I will try to be a bit more conscientious in the future - if, that is, these viewing stats are real and not phantom marketing stuff.......

  6. #226
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    Quote Originally Posted by susannair View Post
    Oil prices rose ahead of an OPEC meeting on Thursday that is expected to extend a production cut aimed at tightening the market well into 2018, adding at least nine months to an initial six-month cut in the first half of this year.

    Brent crude futures were trading at $54.40 per barrel at 0118 GMT, up 44 cents, or 0.82 percent from their last close.

    U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $51.76, up 40 cents, or 0.78 percent.

    Both benchmarks have risen more than 16 percent from their May lows.

    Prices have risen on a consensus that a pledge by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers, including Russia, to cut supplies by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) would be extended into 2018, instead of just covering the first half of this year.

    The production cut, introduced in January, was initially only to cover the first half of 2017, but an ongoing glut has meant that OPEC and its allies who are meeting in Vienna on Thursday are expected to extend the cut by nine or potentially even 12 months.

    Get daily calls and information - deleted]
    Well that was a fast response after my first post in a week - only 15 mins later!!!!. I guess that makes you a Bot called susannair. Well, Bot, I am flattered by your enthusiastic appearance here - but this thread is not about your sales promotions ........
    Last edited by Manxx; 05-25-2017 at 01:12 AM.

  7. #227
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    So we have the confirmation of the extension to the OPEC + deal for a further 9 mths. This was followed by a significant sell off partly due to a lack of increase in the actual amount of the cuts. Also Libya and Nigeria are still excluded from the deal due to their domestic problems. There are also doubts (of course) about the continuing degree of compliance amongst members.....and of course the continuing growth in US shale production towards the 10 mill b/d level.

    Today was a special day, but not because of OPEC. Apart from closing out a last long trade before the OPEC meeting, today was dedicated to the memory of Finland's past president, Mauno Koivisto, whose State funeral took place in Helsinki today. A veteran of the 2nd World War, Chairman of the Bank of Finland, Minister of Finance, Prime Minister and 9th President of Finland.

    The markets had a good shake-out today with a drop that took us right back below even the Daily 200 SMA. This is good. Now we will see the price settle and move according to a new set of conditions and market forces.

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  8. #228
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    After the dust settles overnight on yesterday's OPEC meeting's outcome and the subsequent drop in crude oil prices, it is easier to see where we are now.

    In a way, it was a classic "buy the rumour, sell the fact" event. The market had been taking prices up based on strong indications that the current agreement to cut production levels amongst both the OPEC nations and other non-OPEC countries (incl Russia) would not only be extended, but may well be extended even further than the end of this year. In fact, it was extended by 9 months to March 2018. So why the sell-off?

    Since this extension was already fully anticipated, having been already publicly agreed in principle by many participants prior to the meeting, many watchers (including me) were anticipating an additional surprise "extra" from OPEC to excite the market and give it a good push upwards - but it didn't come. I was anticipating an extra boost from a surprise increase in the size of the cuts or even by the inclusion of additional participants. But I got a gut feel before the meeting that maybe this was not on the cards afterall, and closed out my long "bet" on the outcome. I am now flat.

    But the only conclusion was that a continuation of the same reduced production levels for a further 9 months would be sufficient to clear the current global oil glut and bring the market back into balance. But since the current agreement has failed to produce any significant reductions in stocks so far, and the US shale producers are still increasing strongly their own production levels, there is a feeling that little has changed - or will change - so, of course, disappointment means sell.....
    So what are we left with?

    Precious little I think. We are now in exactly the same pincer movement that has dominated markets since last December: The same OPEC agreement will put downward pressure on stocks and upward pressure on prices - which encourages US shale producers to increase their own production and put upward pressure of stocks and a consequent downward pressure on prices.
    Key points, I think, are:

    - That the principle OPEC ambition is to bring the market back into balance, not primarily and specifically just to push up prices, which would be more of a consequence of a balanced market rather than an objective in itself. Therefore any slow readjustments in the supply /demand equation do not necessarily equate with significant rises in prices.

    - Any significant collapse in prices would approach breakeven cost levels and start to retard production in US and elsewhere, which would accelerate the attempt to reduce oil stock levels globally.

    - If and when the extended OPEC/NOPEC agreement starts to balance oil stocks, will we continue to see the same, exceptional, level of compliance amongst the participants of the agreement - or will we see the cracks starting to appear and undermine the success of the project? Who will be the first with a false start to increasing pumping as the agreement ages.

    - And what happens after the agreement, next March. Do we return to a free-for-all with everyone pumping like mad to gain/regain market share or with some other form of market regulation.


    The only conclusion I can see at present is that we continue within the same broad range with a cap over price extremes on the upside from the US shale production and a floor supporting prices by the breakeven cost levels at which production taps are slowly turned off....

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