Crude Oil and oil markets

Indeed - very much so. I actually (slightly) know someone who lives in Venezuela, and she says that everyday life there (including internet access, quite widely) is an absolute nightmare and a disaster, at the moment. :33:

It seems that the earlier caution regarding the dubious upside potential mentioned above was indeed relevant and merited (at least so far!)!

After a brief upmove there was a clear sell signal and the price has fallen since then and is now back below the daily pivot (which is more or less the same level as the daily 200 SMA, which is also flat at present). Happy to say I am in on this move :slight_smile:

This is the 15m chart with the sell signal from both the ribbon and the MACD:


…and here was the exit from the above trade (5min chart signal) :). Now waiting for the next move:


…and with all those resources! Unbelievable!

…Carrying on from the above trade. There was a further drop and I couldn’t resist another entry (below). But it was a quick in and out this time. I left the green pips showing this time just to “prove” I’m not just inventing these things! :smiley:

Naturally, with the CFD’s 5-pip spreads these are expensive if one takes many of these kinds of multiple short moves - and by comparison, for example, if I were trading just from the daily charts, I would still be short the same one trade that started from level 53.60 on 2.3. and, of course, would be very content!! - but not all daily signals last so long or move so far! I am still happier (and mentally more stable!) chasing these short chunks from the main move rather than holding long term positions in such a volatile commodity even though, at least on this occasion, I am earning less than I would have now in that daily position if I had taken it.

The problem with short term trading here is that one has to try to be anticipatory rather than simply following (or chasing) the price, otherwise you are usually in either after a big chunk of the move has suddenly happened or, even worse, at the end of it!


I watched this dramatic film last night called “Deepwater Horizon”, about the true story events of the semi-submersible mobile offshore drilling unit called Deepwater Horizon that began on April 20, 2010.

The rig was built in 2001 to drill subsea wells for oil exploration and production. It was particularly notable for its advanced systems such as remote monitoring and information transmission from Houston, Texas, as well as in the rig’s operation and automation.


On that day, the rig was about to begin drilling off the southern coast of Louisiana. Soon after commencing operations a series of equipment malfunctions resulted in a massive blowout of seawater, drilling mud and methane gas. The gas component ignited into a series of explosions and then a firestorm. Finally, the mechanism for plugging the well was activated but failed…

There were 126 crew on board the rig and eleven workers were killed in the initial explosion. The rig was evacuated and the fire burned uncontrollably for a further 36 hours before the rig finally sank on 22 April 2010.

But the underwater oil spill continued until 15 July when it was finally closed by a cap. The Deepwater Horizon oil spill is considered the largest accidental marine oil spill in the history of the petroleum industry. In spite of massive operations to protect beaches, wetlands and estuaries from the spreading oil, extensive damage occured to marine and wildlife habitats and fishing and tourism industries. Even many years later various studies continue to reveal damage and deformities to marine life as a result of the oil spillage.

The results of numerous investigations into the causes of the explosion and record oil spill blamed defective cement on the well, cost-cutting decisions and an inadequate safety system,and systemic root causes.


According to Wikipedia, the ensuing legal proceedings resulted in 11 counts of manslaughter and a record-setting $4.525 billion in fines and other payments. In addition, apparently, as of February 2013, criminal and civil settlements and payments to a trust fund had amounted to $42.2 billion.

In September 2014, a U.S. District Court judge ruled that the oil company concerned was primarily responsible for the oil spill because of its gross negligence and reckless conduct and in July 2015, the company agreed to pay $18.7 billion in fines, the largest corporate settlement in U.S. history.

Charts continue mixed. Still not impressed with upside potential based on daily and 4H charts, but still waiting for 1H chart to confirm a sell signal before entering. Later today is the US oil rig count release which is sometimes provocative…

[I]“The Baker Hughes Rig Counts are an important business barometer for the drilling industry and its suppliers. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for products used in drilling, completing, producing and processing hydrocarbons. This particular case represents the number of rigs drilling exclusively for oil.”[/I]

Well nothing interesting developed for me today. So I’m done for the weekend and wish anyone dropping by a sunny one. :slight_smile:

Actually, I’ve been thinking. This has been an incredible personal journey into starting commodities and surprisingly easy has been the transition! I know now already that I will not be returning to forex - ever. Crude was my starting point in life and now it will eventually be my end too, I am so at home here in the oil markets! :slight_smile:

But, I am thinking, it is [I]not [/I]forex and this [I]is [/I]a forex site, and [I]especially [/I]for Newbies in [I]forex[/I]. So this Friday feels very much like a crossroads, I find myself no longer reading other threads here and I am sure my stuff here about crude is of no interest to others either :). So like the proverbial ships that pass in the night (or was it oil tankers? :slight_smile: ) I feel a parting of ways here. It has been a real experience to be here on BP in very many ways. But all things end and this is that time…

Good luck to all newcomers to trading and may your careers be for you as long and as rewarding and as fruitful as mine has been for me!..

What a loss to BP that will be Manxx! You have so much knowledge to share and I’m sure there are many people here who are also interested in oil and in need of different perspectives. I’ve enjoyed your thoughtful and insightful posts (and this thread) and wish you well. Between the walks on your beautiful frozen lakes I hope you will find the time to pop back in occasionally ?:slight_smile:

Indeed - I agree with your entire post; thank you.

(I’m sorry not to have taken more part in this thread, by the way - I haven’t been so well, this week - and sorry to have seen Manxx’s post above only this morning :8: ).

told you a year ago manxx, once you go commodities you never go back to forex.

you should have listened to my advice earlier :stuck_out_tongue:

heres another advice (i didnt read the entire thread, so excuse me if you already mentioned it etc)
become a master in reading the cot report.
especially in commodities its the best tool you can ever find.

yes forex forum.
wish a happy time and sucess everyone trading 1/100 of a cent.

Hi Turbo!!! been a long time! :slight_smile:

You are probably right there! :smiley:

I just got [I][U][B]so[/B][/U][/I] bored with forex. Nothing else but Brexit (will it/won’t it work), Trump (will he/won’t he make US great again), EU elections (will they/won’t they be populist), add a sprinkling of terrorism issues here and there and a stumbling from one Central Bank statement to another and I wasn’t sure whether to be depressed or just hibernate for a few years…

But Crude Oil is a total industry, so many things to learn and wonder at besides just the price - it is [I][B]exciting[/B][/I]! :).

But, alas, it is (naturally) of no interest to anyone here, so I took it “home” and am building my own pdf on it instead of posting here where it is just in everyone’s way.

But one thing I do [I][U]still [/U][/I]enjoy about this site is the quotations at the bottom of each page. By way of example, I’ll leave you with a slightly modified one that I thought was funny:
[I]
“Trading is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration.”
[/I]

Ok, Jazzman, so if you have got this far from Turbo’s thread then: welcome! :slight_smile:

I ceased posting here since it seemed a bit selfish to occupy space concerning a commodity that is only of interest to me on a site dedicated to forex, but if it interests you, too, then that makes two of us - which maybe then constitutes a quorum? :slight_smile:

Not to say three of us, which constitutes a quorum 50% larger than the aforementioned one. :slight_smile:

Lexy, you could never be only 50% of anything! rather,at least 500%! :slight_smile:

We have a seemingly curious situation regarding the outlook for oil prices over the near term! :slight_smile:

Supporting the market, we have OPEC and the 11 other non-OPEC producer countries continuing their reduced production levels in order to stabilize prices - and will possibly be extending these cuts to the end of the year. In addition, we also have a number of analysts predicting that increasing demand will remove the current global oil supply glut and support prices around the $60 a barrel level. But if prices do start to rise significantly then that will immediately place temptation in the way of these OPEC and NOPEC countries to start increasing their production to avoid losing market share and to increase badly needed revenues.

But we also have US producers increasing production and drill rigs and thus countering to some extent the OPEC reductions and also reducing US oil imports from e.g. Saudi Arabia. However, whilst the US administration is committed to energy policies that will maintain lower prices and reduce oil imports, the US oil industry itself will not wish to see prices falling too low and damaging their own revenues.

Therefore, on balance, one could start to see evidence that prices may well be near their lows for the time being as we approach the summer increase in demand, and maybe see a gradual increase towards the year-end.

I was therefore curiously surprised to read an article this weekend reporting that Russia has now planned its federal spending budget for 2017-2019 based on an oil price of $40 a barrel continuing throughout this 2-year period…

My charts finished last week still with a negative trend on the daily - requiring a price rise now through 49.45 to cancel it (Turbo’s 5-day method). But there was a clearly neutral/positive end-week close on the one hour and shorter term charts.

There is also an interesting situation on the long-term daily chart going back to the middle of last year:


My own thoughts are that we could possibly now be entering a consolidation period, which will see strong oscillations between broad extremes from now until the OPEC decision in May concerning extending their production cuts.

The question is which goes first, the 5-day 49.45 (high from 21.3, which if not touched on Monday, will drop anyway on Tuesday to 48.25,the high from 23.3.) - or that daily support line, which could lead to a substantial reactive fall…

Going into the new week I am still too wary to buy until and unless the daily turns upwards and so I continue to watch the 1H chart for a downturn…


Manxx, the JMMC met today in Kuwait - their communique could affect price tomorrow, worth being aware of it although maybe the market will just shrug it off.

Thanks, yes, Peterma, I have been watching that. So far there has only been talk of them analysing the degree of compliance so far from partners, especially the non-OPECs like Russia. I somehow doubt that they will end by saying anything that could be construed as negative for prices given that their interest is entirely the opposite - but then there is always the contrarian view - if they say positive things that dont have market credibility then it is negative! :smiley:

It still seems that the problem is the increase in US production cancelling out the deliberate shortfall from OPEC/NOPEC. They have said that OPEC’s compliance rate was 106% in February and 64% for the non-OPEC nations including Russia - but that is not having any impact so far on prices and it all feels very heavy…but there are still plenty of long-term interests anticipating an eventual rise in prices and are buying. But on the other hand, I read that there are very high long positions at present and if these start to liquidate then we could easily see a fall towards $40 in a very short time. That’s why I am still only looking for sell opportunities …and thankfully can rely on charts (and blame them!) instead of having to form a fundamental “smart-view”! :smiley:

Yeah, I agree on the smart view, having said that sometimes it helps when you see price move and you can figure the reason.

I’m not a fan of old stuff except when I can learn from it, so here is an old piece, with some good info.

Thanks! I was just off to bed (I’m 2 hours ahead of the UK) so I’ll take it with me…:smiley: