The UK retail m/m sales were up today 0.5% on the 0.3% consensus forecast. Whether the spike in the GBP is a trend reversal or a short term retracement i’m not sure yet. Ill be looking to see whether the pair hits resistance around the 1.9650-19660 price range(78.6% fib level). We seem to be stuck in this price channel on the daily chart, it could rally all the way to 1.9730. Interested to hear other opinions.
I’m watching this pair closely too. I noticed that resistance level also, if it breaks and holds it may be the start of a new trend. Seems like there are only buyers right now, I’m going to wait and see what happens, and if it cools off. What do you think?
This is my imagination of price action in cable for the short term:
Let us be certain that its strongly bearish (medium term)
But expect from here an eventual break to 2.0 levels where 50% fib reside, and a bearish bias from that level.
Longs are in favour ofcourse, but on dips…rather than breakouts. it bottomed near term at 1.93/4
I’m thinking of waiting for reversal confirmation from 1.9950 then go short to 1.9775 area.
With all the pressure on USD, you think it could possibly go back to 1.9400?
Not sure if it could do slight retrace then rally again. What do you think?
Jeff
Sounds good,
Went short at 1.9917 an hour ago, nice to see it dropped. Will watch the 9850 zone.
Are we heading toward 1.9950 and a possible move upwards or will price successfully break 1.9800 and find support around 1.9650?
Is that a giant head & shoulders on the one hour? And check out the 15’ another h&s … somethin’s about to give with this pair??
50% fib retrace so far.
The trouble with that thinking is that it sets up an expectancy bias. You start to preferentially look for the data that confirms your bias whether you realise it or not. There is NO research evidence to support patterns like head and shoulders as being predictive. Keep your analysis simple. What we can say is that the substantial pound sell off has held up between 9400 and 9500. That should be enough info to form the basis of a trading plan for this pair
