Happy Corner: Loonie (CAD) pairs - Page 3
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  1. #21
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    Mar 2007
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    513
    Quote Originally Posted by YoungGun1 View Post
    Well the positive CPI reports probably were responsible for killing my trade today as it dropped 40 pips in a matter of seconds blowing out my stop. Well into the books and on to the next trade!
    On to the next trade indeed! USD/CAD looks like it's bouncing off the channel that we've been watching since last week. Interested? Hihihi

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  2. #22
    Join Date
    May 2011
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    Houston,tx
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    Looks like we're right back where we started from last week, testing the channel support. It's like climbing a ladder and going down the slide, WEEEEEE!
    My Newb thought process is to wait until Thursday's fundamental reports, 2 from the US (Jobless claims and Chicago PMI) and the Canadian GDP to come out in the morning NY session. All 3 reports come out basically within the span of an hour. Then place a trade.
    But my technical thought process says to watch the next couple of 4hour candles and see if this is going back up. The next level of support is ~ .9670/.9650 and given the current price is .9707 thats a fairly tight stop.

    So now what to do?

  3. #23
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    Mar 2007
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    513
    Quote Originally Posted by snook View Post
    Looks like we're right back where we started from last week, testing the channel support. It's like climbing a ladder and going down the slide, WEEEEEE!
    My Newb thought process is to wait until Thursday's fundamental reports, 2 from the US (Jobless claims and Chicago PMI) and the Canadian GDP to come out in the morning NY session. All 3 reports come out basically within the span of an hour. Then place a trade.
    But my technical thought process says to watch the next couple of 4hour candles and see if this is going back up. The next level of support is ~ .9670/.9650 and given the current price is .9707 thats a fairly tight stop.

    So now what to do?
    I think the best thing to do would be to wait for those reports like you said. Risk appetite is looking really strong right now, mostly because of the approval of Greece's austerity program. Then Canada just printed a really good CPI report, which means that plenty of Loonie traders are anticipating a rate hike to come soon. Another strong report from Canada could trigger a break of the .9650-.9670 support.

    Just my two cents. I'll be keeping a close eye on those upcoming reports though

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  4. #24
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    Mar 2007
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    513

    Default USD/CAD Break and Retest?

    I think a bunch of us got clobbered by this pair last week but I'm not giving up on it just yet! What do you guys think of this break and retest strategy?



    USD/CAD already broke way below that rising trend line on the 4-hour time frame but it seems ready to retrace. I put up my Fib tool on the recent drop and noticed that the 38.2% level lines up with the .9700 major psychological level. Do you think this will be a good area to short?

    Recent data from Canada has been very strong, particularly the CPI which is at its highest in 8 years! Upcoming reports (Ivey PMI, employment report) could beat expectations, too.

    Any thoughts on my trade idea?

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  5. #25
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
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    Peak District, UK
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    After the very strong selling off from 27th June (the Daily chart will make very happy viewing for anyone who shorted that high test on 27th June!) I think that is is highly likely that we will get a decent retracement now. As we are in a strong overall downtrend, I won't look to take it long, personally, but I do like the idea of shorting following the retracement. It is slightly a case of watching to see how Price Action looks over the next few days, but your suggested 0.9700 level is a good candidate. We also have the Weekly Pivot at 1.9796, which lends extra weight to the idea. The Pair has previously hit Resistance at this level. I have 0.9648, 0.9722 and 0.9811 on my chart as levels from previous Price Action. Given that the current low has failed to take out the low of 2nd/3rd May, I doubt I will short from 0.9648, but I will be watching the 0.9700 level, yes. Of course, it is very possible that Price will climb right back up towards the 0.9900 level before falling back, but that is just one to monitor. If I try an Entry lower than that but get stopped out I would have another go up around there.

    But with an eye on Friday being NFP, of course - I don't trade those Fridays, and the 0.9700 level could come into play around then, sigh.

    ST

  6. #26
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    Mar 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by SimonTemplar View Post
    I have 0.9648, 0.9722 and 0.9811 on my chart as levels from previous Price Action. Given that the current low has failed to take out the low of 2nd/3rd May, I doubt I will short from 0.9648, but I will be watching the 0.9700 level, yes. Of course, it is very possible that Price will climb right back up towards the 0.9900 level before falling back, but that is just one to monitor. If I try an Entry lower than that but get stopped out I would have another go up around there.

    But with an eye on Friday being NFP, of course - I don't trade those Fridays, and the 0.9700 level could come into play around then, sigh.

    ST
    I'm watching those levels as well, particularly the .9700 and .9800. If I short there, I'll probably place my stop above .9900 then aim for .9600. Of course shorting at .9800 would offer the best reward-to-risk ratio, but let's see if price reaches that area.

    NFP Friday could push the pair to those levels so I'm setting my orders just in case. How come you don't trade those Fridays? Not a huge fan of extra volatility? Haha.

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  7. #27
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    Sep 2010
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    Peak District, UK
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    Quote Originally Posted by happypip View Post
    NFP Friday could push the pair to those levels so I'm setting my orders just in case. How come you don't trade those Fridays? Not a huge fan of extra volatility? Haha.

    Yes, exactly that - I find that the really big news announcements/events don't always have the effect that one expects, despite analysis (the Yen gave both Short and Long pips following the earthquake, for instance) so I just stay out. I see this as a probability game, I like high probability trades, so if there are too many variables that I don't feel confident predicting, I just stay away. I have back-tested this, and while I could make some heroic pips on some days, I would just get stopped out on others, and even the ratio between those two options is not something I feel I can predict with sufficient accuracy.

    I see this as a long-term career, I judge each month and year as a whole. I make a double-figure percentage return each month trading as it is, my account is growing as well as providing an income - so I just avoid some of the bigger variables, why mess with what works?

    I realize that a lot of people like to trade NFP, and they are happy that they make it work, but I prefer to avoid it. It's only one Friday a month, and I am generally in a happy place by cop Thursday, anyway, as there is generally something working - EUR/USD, GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY have been my trading focus this week, sorry for my Comdoll disloyalty!

    So this Friday I am taking my wife and youngest (pre-school) son out to lunch, then will reenter the fray on Monday. Beats working for a living!!

    ST

  8. #28
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    Mar 2007
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    513
    Quote Originally Posted by SimonTemplar View Post
    So this Friday I am taking my wife and youngest (pre-school) son out to lunch, then will reenter the fray on Monday. Beats working for a living!!

    ST
    Aww, that's so sweet SimonTemplar! Enjoy your time with your family, and I'll catch up with you next week!

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  9. #29
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    Mar 2007
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    513
    Hmm, pretty quiet in my comdoll corners lately. Don't tell me y'all are also spent the last few days re-reading the Harry Potter books like I did! How's everyone doing so far?

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  10. #30
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    Singapore
    Posts
    23
    Loonie prices are making Lower Low on daily chart. I think it will reverse very soon.

    Let be patient to wait for bottom fishing. Certainly quiet now.

    By the way, why I hardly see people use daily chart in Forex?

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