…Just dropping off here to say Thanks for making me note this pair.
Used to trade USDCAD but rarely make money off it like other comdolls so i abandoned it.
But this looks really good.
The channel is being re-tested now and if it holds then it’l be a nice double bottom on the one hour time frame, a close above that should be a comfortable place to enter with good enough Risk-Reward ratio.
Oh yeah! Thanks for pointing that potential double bottom on the 1-hour chart.
Nice hearing from ya, OTG. You can also post your own Loonie-related trades here if you want. See you around!
And if you used that low test off the Hourly chart as your entry (0900-1000 GMT) then you could have a Stop of around 35 pips, below the 0.9700 level you mentioned, so it would be a very good R:R. I didn’t take it, was not at the screen, but had I taken it that is maybe how I would have traded it. Looks a good setup, would prefer a clearer picture on the Daily but can’t have everything I guess! Looking at at it now, though, Price is bumping its head on the Daily Pivot, so that is something I would keep an eye on. I have a Resistance line on my Daily chart at around 0.9820, so would be a little more conservartive with my TP than you were suggesting, or at least trail up my Stop if Price approached that level.
Took your advice and placed my first target at .9820. Then I’ll trail my stop after that. Thanks SimonTemplar!
Thank me afterwards lol!
I went long on this at .9715 towrds the end of the Fed announcement. I noticed the dollar was up basically across the board and figured it was a good time. Then I woke up this morning at 7am to see oil had dropped $3!! and knew I had to check my charts. Sure enough it was already at .9800 so I’m up 85pips and loving it!! thank you all for your insight, it reassured me that I was on to something.
Wheee! Congratulations to ya, snook!
Where are you planning to take profit? I locked in some pips around .9820 but I’m keeping half my position open and aiming for .9920. How about you?
I had my TP at 100 pips so it was triggered at .9815. after that I figured “100 pips in one day, I’m done!”. I’ve been busy since but will look at it tonight and see what the stoch/time frames say as well as any fundamentals for Friday. I’ve only been doing this with live money for 2 months so when I hit something like 100 pips I feel successful enough. I need to learn more about when to add to my position or when to pull half and extend my TP.
Oh hey, don’t get me wrong, 100 pips in a day is hella awesome for newbies and seasoned traders alike! Even I would give anything to grab a hundred pips in a single day. Good thing this USD/CAD trade worked great for the both of us!
I hope you enjoy your learning process. It’s definitely gonna be challenging but that’s what your fellow traders are here for. As for me, I’m more than willing to guide you through it, so stick around and let’s learn from each other 
Thanks Happypips, you can guide me through as much as you would like. Right now I’m working on recognizing harmonic patterns, trying to overcome that hurddle.
I felt like the setup on this last trade was a no brainer, really nice support and price was in that area, the fed announcement was the fundamental that was going to move it one way or the other, the oil issue was clearly the icing on the cake. I expected the trade to possibly go into Monday, but that 'gift" by the IEA was what sped up the process in my opinion. They don’t get much easier. Too bad they’re all not like that!
Yep, we don’t get those “gifts” often, but gotta thank the markets when we do! Even I was pleasantly surprised by the IEA’s announcement yesterday!
Btw, how are you doing with those harmonic patterns? I found this section of the School that could provide the basics on the topic.
Hope this helps!
Harmonic Price Patterns | Harmonic Price Patterns | Learn Forex Trading
Hey I just wanted to talk about the rising channel for the USD/CAD. Just took a long position @97.850 w/ a 30 pip stop.
Hey YoungGun1, welcome!
It looks like the pair is in the middle of the channel (on the 4h timeframe) but the .9785 is the 61.8% Fib, which could be a nice bounce off point. Stochastic almost in the oversold too, which is good for your trade. If I’m not mistaken, that’s also the bottom weekly ATR for this week and that level USUALLY holds.
In short, from a technical standpoint, your trade looks pretty solid. Plus your stop’s nicely placed, too! Hopefully news from Greece doesn’t cause any wild moves. Good luck on your trade!
You also have a bounce off the 21ema on the Daily chart in your favour, which chimes with the recent (albeit rather choppy) rising trendline on there.
I missed a setup earlier in the week, I would have shorted following Monday’s high test off the 200ema/horizontal Resistance level - my TP would have been… 97.85! So via different routes we have both seen that as a level where Price might rise again.
ST
Well the positive CPI reports probably were responsible for killing my trade today as it dropped 40 pips in a matter of seconds blowing out my stop. Well into the books and on to the next trade!
On to the next trade indeed! USD/CAD looks like it’s bouncing off the channel that we’ve been watching since last week. Interested? Hihihi 
Looks like we’re right back where we started from last week, testing the channel support. It’s like climbing a ladder and going down the slide, WEEEEEE!
My Newb thought process is to wait until Thursday’s fundamental reports, 2 from the US (Jobless claims and Chicago PMI) and the Canadian GDP to come out in the morning NY session. All 3 reports come out basically within the span of an hour. Then place a trade.
But my technical thought process says to watch the next couple of 4hour candles and see if this is going back up. The next level of support is ~ .9670/.9650 and given the current price is .9707 thats a fairly tight stop.
So now what to do?
I think the best thing to do would be to wait for those reports like you said. Risk appetite is looking really strong right now, mostly because of the approval of Greece’s austerity program. Then Canada just printed a really good CPI report, which means that plenty of Loonie traders are anticipating a rate hike to come soon. Another strong report from Canada could trigger a break of the .9650-.9670 support.
Just my two cents. I’ll be keeping a close eye on those upcoming reports though
I think a bunch of us got clobbered by this pair last week but I’m not giving up on it just yet! What do you guys think of this break and retest strategy?
USD/CAD already broke way below that rising trend line on the 4-hour time frame but it seems ready to retrace. I put up my Fib tool on the recent drop and noticed that the 38.2% level lines up with the .9700 major psychological level. Do you think this will be a good area to short?
Recent data from Canada has been very strong, particularly the CPI which is at its highest in 8 years! Upcoming reports (Ivey PMI, employment report) could beat expectations, too.
Any thoughts on my trade idea?
After the very strong selling off from 27th June (the Daily chart will make very happy viewing for anyone who shorted that high test on 27th June!) I think that is is highly likely that we will get a decent retracement now. As we are in a strong overall downtrend, I won’t look to take it long, personally, but I do like the idea of shorting following the retracement. It is slightly a case of watching to see how Price Action looks over the next few days, but your suggested 0.9700 level is a good candidate. We also have the Weekly Pivot at 1.9796, which lends extra weight to the idea. The Pair has previously hit Resistance at this level. I have 0.9648, 0.9722 and 0.9811 on my chart as levels from previous Price Action. Given that the current low has failed to take out the low of 2nd/3rd May, I doubt I will short from 0.9648, but I will be watching the 0.9700 level, yes. Of course, it is very possible that Price will climb right back up towards the 0.9900 level before falling back, but that is just one to monitor. If I try an Entry lower than that but get stopped out I would have another go up around there.
But with an eye on Friday being NFP, of course - I don’t trade those Fridays, and the 0.9700 level could come into play around then, sigh.
ST