Happy Corner: Aussie (AUD) pairs - Page 2
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  1. #11
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    Sep 2010
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    Sorry, too late for anyone to do anything with this, but I made some pips on AUD/USD earlier this week and thought you would want to see the trade, in light of our discussion last week.

    We have been in a sustained uptrend on the Daily chart, which while currently stalled has not reversed. So my bias was for Long entries. We discussed last week the range on this pair, well this week the Hourly chart has shown a clear upper level of around 1.0615, with a rising trendline below that, giving us an ascending triangle.

    All timeframes have recently been showing a lower Support level of around 1.0500. So with my Long bias from the Daily, and the ascending triangle on the Hourly, I looked for Long entries off the Hourly chart.

    Monday morning (GMT) opened with a low test into the 1.0500 area on the Hourly chart, the 0900-1000 bar. I don't like trading first thing on a Monday morning, so I did not take this, preferring to give the market a couple of hours to sort itself out (Price had made a lower low on the Friday before, so Monday could have seen this Support line break). The 1200-1300 Hourly bar gave us a second low test into this same Support zone. This is the trade I took.

    My Entry was the break of the high of that bar, so the Entry was 1.0533, my Stop was below the low of the earlier low test (for only a few extra pips this is a lot safer), so at 1.0488, giving me a risk of 45 pips. I set my TP at 1.0600, just inside the established Resistance zone at the top of the ascending triangle (and five pips lower than the Weekly Pivot, which comes through at 1.0605). This gave me a 67 pip TP, for a 1.5:1 R:R. I risked 1% on the trade, so stood to make 1.5% if it went in my favour.

    I could have been bolder with the trade, by taking the entry off the first low test (which would have worked out), or by setting my Stop below the low of the Entry bar (which also would have worked out), but given that this was Monday morning, and that the setup still gave me a good R:R, I was happy with how I played it.

    It hit TP overnight Monday, so I started the week 1.5% up. I realize that this is in the past, so hope it does not just smack of showing off, but as you invited people to list their trades here, and given that we have just been discussing this pair, I thought that you might be interested in the trade. This was a very high probability setup, I'd take it every time I saw it.

    ST

  2. #12
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Houston,tx
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    37

    Default descending triangle

    I have been looking at the daily chart for this pair and have noticed a nice descending triangle forming with lower highs and some real test of support over the last few days. The stoch is around 25 and going lower.
    I haven't looked to the week ahead but it seems like fundamentaly we're headed into a risk off environment. My leaning is to a breakout through support. Noticing support, it has a LONG way to go, I think around 1.0250 for anything with any real strength.

    I haven't been doing this very long, so please tell me what I'm not seeing!

  3. #13
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    513
    Quote Originally Posted by snook View Post
    I have been looking at the daily chart for this pair and have noticed a nice descending triangle forming with lower highs and some real test of support over the last few days. The stoch is around 25 and going lower.
    I haven't looked to the week ahead but it seems like fundamentaly we're headed into a risk off environment. My leaning is to a breakout through support. Noticing support, it has a LONG way to go, I think around 1.0250 for anything with any real strength.

    I haven't been doing this very long, so please tell me what I'm not seeing!

    You're right, that's a descending triangle on AUD/USD's daily chart. I tried to short on the "break" a couple of times but I got faked out

    It seems that, with the risk off environment that you mentioned, we might just see a break to the downside soon enough. But I'd probably wait for a really big catalyst for that to happen. For now, it looks like traders are uneasy about buying risky currencies, but at the same time AUD is still fundamentally stronger than USD. That's probably why the 1.0450-1.0500 support refuses to give way.

    But if you're waiting for a breakdown, where do you plan to set your sell stop orders? I just might jump in with ya!

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  4. #14
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    Sep 2010
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    I have been watching this, too, and for me the wicks (I use a candlestick chart for my Daily) are a little long to make the triangle that clean, so I would want to use Price Action to support my Entry to any Short.

    happypip, presumably you tried entries on a couple of the recent low tests, say 25th May, 16th June or yesterday? For me, with everything else that is going on, and with the long wicks making Stop placement tricky, I would probably be inclined to play this one more cautiously - I would wait for a close below the Support level around 1.0500, then maybe even look for it to be retested with a high test bar. If we get that, I would happily enter off that bar. If it high tests then falls, then the Entry will be as efficient as playing it on the initial break (as it would enable a tighter Stop), and if it does not high test but just falls away, well, there are plenty more fish in the sea.

    Risking 1% per Entry, I prefer to wait for confirmation of breaks from consolidation where the picture is slightly unclear, rather than just take them live, as it protects against fakeouts, the cost of which mounts up. I will enter live for a cleaner triangle, but this one is a bit of a mess, imho, so would rather wait for confirmation.

    As Snook pointed out, there is potentially a long way for this pair to drop, so I think that there is room for a more conservative Entry.

    Anyway, sorry to ramble on, just thought a different view might be interesting.

    ST

  5. #15
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Houston,tx
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    I agree ST. I think the Aussie currency is fundamentally better off. So my other scenario is that it breaks to the upside because now all the sellers are exhausted. The stoch is close enough to the bottom to rally upwards. If thats the case then the highs towards the top of the triangle will probably hold. And the more I think about that, the more I think it to be the likely scenario.
    If however it does break downwards, I think you are much more accurare than I, in that anyone should wait for a close well below all those support wicks before a short order.

  6. #16
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Oslo, Norway
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    Hi guys! I noticed you were looking at the Aussie too so I decided to pitch in too!
    I've been looking at this pair for a couple of days and I'm quite impatiently waiting for it to break as it has been ranging for quite some time now. I'm looking at it from a chaos trader's point of view.
    As you can see the alligator has been in a range for a long time and this often anticipates a large move. I've been waiting for a fractal to be broken (blue horizontal line). I call the bar that broke the line the "confirmation bar". My entry will be the low of this confirmation bar at 1.0452 (green horizontal line). For the profit taking I've been lookin' for relevant support and the 1.0200 psychological handle is a good candidate also because it has been a relevant support in the past. I will add to my position along the way when my indicators tell me to. If it turns out fine this will be an amazing trade, if it finally decides to move of course... I've seen snails that move faster than this pair lol! Have a good one guys!




  7. #17
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Houston,tx
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    As I type, it is 10pm EST 6/26. AUD fell to 1.0420 and is now bouncing up to 1.0450. I'm going to see how high this bounces over the next few hours and place a sell if it hits a nice Fib level (maybe 50%) from the 6/22 high. The fundamental calander has nothing for the AUD this week, so whatever USD news we get looks to move this pair all week long. Happy pip hunting to you guys and may the odds be with you.

  8. #18
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    513
    Quote Originally Posted by SimonTemplar View Post
    happypip, presumably you tried entries on a couple of the recent low tests, say 25th May, 16th June or yesterday?

    Risking 1% per Entry, I prefer to wait for confirmation of breaks from consolidation where the picture is slightly unclear, rather than just take them live, as it protects against fakeouts, the cost of which mounts up. I will enter live for a cleaner triangle, but this one is a bit of a mess, imho, so would rather wait for confirmation.

    As Snook pointed out, there is potentially a long way for this pair to drop, so I think that there is room for a more conservative Entry.

    Anyway, sorry to ramble on, just thought a different view might be interesting.

    ST
    Yep, you're right, I did get faked out with this pair sometime during the last week of May. The support zone seems to be much wider on this one (1.0450-1.0500) but it looks like its broken now. But I've learned my lesson with shorting on breaks so I'll just wait for it to show signs of retracing.

    I'm with ya and snook on taking a more conservative setup for this one, if it does show up!

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  9. #19
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Martinius View Post
    Hi guys! I noticed you were looking at the Aussie too so I decided to pitch in too!
    I've been looking at this pair for a couple of days and I'm quite impatiently waiting for it to break as it has been ranging for quite some time now. I'm looking at it from a chaos trader's point of view.
    As you can see the alligator has been in a range for a long time and this often anticipates a large move. I've been waiting for a fractal to be broken (blue horizontal line). I call the bar that broke the line the "confirmation bar". My entry will be the low of this confirmation bar at 1.0452 (green horizontal line). For the profit taking I've been lookin' for relevant support and the 1.0200 psychological handle is a good candidate also because it has been a relevant support in the past. I will add to my position along the way when my indicators tell me to. If it turns out fine this will be an amazing trade, if it finally decides to move of course... I've seen snails that move faster than this pair lol! Have a good one guys!
    Wow, it's certainly nice to see a chaos trader's opinion on this thread! Welcome to my humble corner, Martinus!

    It looks like AUD/USD (the alligator?) already broke below those levels you drew. Were you able to get in on a short trade? I'm eyeing the 1.0200 area too for my target but I still haven't decided where to set my stop. Where did you place yours?

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  10. #20
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    513
    Quote Originally Posted by snook View Post
    As I type, it is 10pm EST 6/26. AUD fell to 1.0420 and is now bouncing up to 1.0450. I'm going to see how high this bounces over the next few hours and place a sell if it hits a nice Fib level (maybe 50%) from the 6/22 high. The fundamental calander has nothing for the AUD this week, so whatever USD news we get looks to move this pair all week long. Happy pip hunting to you guys and may the odds be with you.
    I have my Fibs up, too! But this pair seems to be falling so fast now and isn't showing signs of pulling back yet. Oh well, patience is a virtue, I suppose.

    Not that much news on the US schedule either, but weak data could once again trigger AUD-selling like we saw last week. Keep me posted if you were able to jump in on a short trade, okay?

    Happy pip-hunting to you as well!

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