Happy Corner: Aussie (AUD) pairs - Page 3
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  1. #21
    Join Date
    May 2011
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    Houston,tx
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    37
    I went short early this afternon. I read through the "Gartman Letter" which apparently everyone in the commodity business subscribes to and it said that gold will probably be testing some 1450-1400 lows this week. It a very reputable letter and so that kind of helped to sway my short position. we'll see how it goes this week.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Oslo, Norway
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    76
    Quote Originally Posted by happypip View Post
    Wow, it's certainly nice to see a chaos trader's opinion on this thread! Welcome to my humble corner, Martinus!

    It looks like AUD/USD (the alligator?) already broke below those levels you drew. Were you able to get in on a short trade? I'm eyeing the 1.0200 area too for my target but I still haven't decided where to set my stop. Where did you place yours?
    Hi again HappyPip! Did you have a great weekend?
    My short is now triggered and I will start to add to my overall position as the different signals start to show up! I will close the whole "campaign" at 1.0200 too. It seems like a reasonable place to put a Take Profit since it is a relevant support level. By then the position will have netted a great deal of pips. My only fear is the recent ranging behavior this pair has presented lately! Let's hope it finally decides to make that great move I will keep you updated! Happy trading!

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    513
    Quote Originally Posted by snook View Post
    I went short early this afternon. I read through the "Gartman Letter" which apparently everyone in the commodity business subscribes to and it said that gold will probably be testing some 1450-1400 lows this week. It a very reputable letter and so that kind of helped to sway my short position. we'll see how it goes this week.
    Good for you! It seems like it's going your way now. That "Gartman Letter" sounds interesting, I should subscribe to that since I'm looking at commodities most of the time. Thanks for the tip!

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  4. #24
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    513
    Quote Originally Posted by Martinius View Post
    Hi again HappyPip! Did you have a great weekend?
    My short is now triggered and I will start to add to my overall position as the different signals start to show up! I will close the whole "campaign" at 1.0200 too. It seems like a reasonable place to put a Take Profit since it is a relevant support level. By then the position will have netted a great deal of pips. My only fear is the recent ranging behavior this pair has presented lately! Let's hope it finally decides to make that great move I will keep you updated! Happy trading!
    Yep, an awesome weekend as always! How about you?

    Great to hear your short AUD/USD trade already got triggered! My initial short entry on my demo account unfortunately didn't. I entered half my usual position size at market though, since there's a nice divergence on the 1h. Hoping this goes all the way down to 1.0200 like you predicted! Snook says "Gartman Letter" predicts a drop in gold prices, so that should be in our trade's favor.

    Happy trading!

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  5. #25
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    513
    Yiiiiiiikes. AUD/USD is back above 1.0500 again. Was that a false break??

    Looks like it's still inside the falling channel though. For those who shorted, where did you guys place your stops?

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  6. #26
    Join Date
    May 2011
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    Los Angeles
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    14
    I don't know but I entered at 1.0550 with a 30 pip stop that just got triggered. I still feel bearish as long as it stays in that falling channel. Most likely I will short again at 1.0595 with another 30 pip stop. Unless there is a clear bullish continuation of course. I'm using Parabolic SAR, MACD, & STOCH for any reversal at that level to enter. What do you think? Next stop 1.0250?
    Last edited by YoungGun1; 06-29-2011 at 03:43 AM.

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    513
    Quote Originally Posted by YoungGun1 View Post
    I don't know but I entered at 1.0550 with a 30 pip stop that just got triggered. I still feel bearish as long as it stays in that falling channel. Most likely I will short again at 1.0595 with another 30 pip stop. Unless there is a clear bullish continuation of course. I'm using Parabolic SAR, MACD, & STOCH for any reversal at that level to enter. What do you think?
    Well, I'm looking at stochastic and it's showing a bearish divergence on both the 1h and 4h timeframes. That 1.0600 level seems to be holding though. Did your second position get triggered too?

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  8. #28
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
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    Peak District, UK
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    2,405
    I did not take the original Short, so excuse me for lobbing in thoughts from the outside, but my take is: I almost always take my trading bias, my overall position for the day, from the Daily chart. We have been in a sustained uptrend on AUD/USD since the double bottom a year ago. We did have a triangle forming, and we had a lower high, so it appeared that we might be reaching the end of the trend but to me, now, the picture looks more mixed. We have had mixed signals before - a head and shoulders formed in November, for instance, yet ultimately did not deter the trend - so the current two strong buying days, coupled with the low test on Monday, has me reluctant to short this pair right now. If I came to the pair fresh and stood back from my screen with a year or so's data on there, I would say that we are in a stalled uptrend, which leads to an undecided market. So personally I am now flat on this pair until we get a clearer picture.

    Of course, anything can happen, but I am just saying that my instinct today is to stay out and wait for a clearer signal of the overriding market sentiment. I don't enter trades because of fundamentals (although I might stay out because of them), I much prefer to trade what I see, and the Daily is not giving me much today. Price seems very reluctant to close below 1.0500 and stay there, sufficiently so to be my overriding consideration looking at this pair.

    (Incidentally, I did not take the initial short for two reasons - I did not see a close I liked below 1.0500, and I had entered a Long on EUR/AUD, as I preferred that setup, and did not want to double my exposure to one minor currency. My EUR/AUD trade hit my trailed Stop overnight for +0.25%/23 pips, so I am not much liking AUD this week - tough to predict!)

    ST

  9. #29
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Los Angeles
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    14
    My second position was triggered. As for ST everything you are saying is for insightful although I have no intentions of closing this trade for the obvious reason that I need to stick to my trade plan. I can only hope I look at the market like you and happy pip do so I appreciate your thoughts. Maybe you could post your next setup on the this pair later on. Thanks

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
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    Peak District, UK
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungGun1 View Post
    My second position was triggered. As for ST everything you are saying is for insightful although I have no intentions of closing this trade for the obvious reason that I need to stick to my trade plan. I can only hope I look at the market like you and happy pip do so I appreciate your thoughts. Maybe you could post your next setup on the this pair later on. Thanks

    Obviously you are quite right, mainly for two reasons - 1) I don't believe that anyone should ever enter or stay out of a trade because of someone else's analysis, there are many reasons why it is essential only ever to trade one's own analysis. 2) Noone is right every time, so Price could drop like a stone as I click 'post reply' on this post - it looks a little mixed to me right now, but it obviously has to go up or down at some point!

    Anyway, it could be that you already look at the market with as much insight, or more, than happypip, myself, or anyone else - the joy of an internet forum is that we can all express our views with no hierarchy or any of that. When you make a few % on this one, I will be wishing I had not sat on my hands, after all..!!

    Good luck with the trade.

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