Happy Corner: Aussie (AUD) pairs

I agree ST. I think the Aussie currency is fundamentally better off. So my other scenario is that it breaks to the upside because now all the sellers are exhausted. The stoch is close enough to the bottom to rally upwards. If thats the case then the highs towards the top of the triangle will probably hold. And the more I think about that, the more I think it to be the likely scenario.
If however it does break downwards, I think you are much more accurare than I, in that anyone should wait for a close well below all those support wicks before a short order.

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Hi guys! I noticed you were looking at the Aussie too so I decided to pitch in too!
I’ve been looking at this pair for a couple of days and I’m quite impatiently waiting for it to break as it has been ranging for quite some time now. I’m looking at it from a chaos trader’s point of view.
As you can see the alligator has been in a range for a long time and this often anticipates a large move. I’ve been waiting for a fractal to be broken (blue horizontal line). I call the bar that broke the line the “confirmation bar”. My entry will be the low of this confirmation bar at 1.0452 (green horizontal line). For the profit taking I’ve been lookin’ for relevant support and the 1.0200 psychological handle is a good candidate also because it has been a relevant support in the past. I will add to my position along the way when my indicators tell me to. If it turns out fine this will be an amazing trade, if it finally decides to move of course… I’ve seen snails that move faster than this pair lol! Have a good one guys! :slight_smile:

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As I type, it is 10pm EST 6/26. AUD fell to 1.0420 and is now bouncing up to 1.0450. I’m going to see how high this bounces over the next few hours and place a sell if it hits a nice Fib level (maybe 50%) from the 6/22 high. The fundamental calander has nothing for the AUD this week, so whatever USD news we get looks to move this pair all week long. Happy pip hunting to you guys and may the odds be with you.

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Yep, you’re right, I did get faked out with this pair sometime during the last week of May. The support zone seems to be much wider on this one (1.0450-1.0500) but it looks like its broken now. But I’ve learned my lesson with shorting on breaks so I’ll just wait for it to show signs of retracing.

I’m with ya and snook on taking a more conservative setup for this one, if it does show up!

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Wow, it’s certainly nice to see a chaos trader’s opinion on this thread! Welcome to my humble corner, Martinus!

It looks like AUD/USD (the alligator?) already broke below those levels you drew. Were you able to get in on a short trade? I’m eyeing the 1.0200 area too for my target but I still haven’t decided where to set my stop. Where did you place yours?

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I have my Fibs up, too! But this pair seems to be falling so fast now and isn’t showing signs of pulling back yet. Oh well, patience is a virtue, I suppose.

Not that much news on the US schedule either, but weak data could once again trigger AUD-selling like we saw last week. Keep me posted if you were able to jump in on a short trade, okay?

Happy pip-hunting to you as well!

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I went short early this afternon. I read through the “Gartman Letter” which apparently everyone in the commodity business subscribes to and it said that gold will probably be testing some 1450-1400 lows this week. It a very reputable letter and so that kind of helped to sway my short position. we’ll see how it goes this week.

Hi again HappyPip! Did you have a great weekend?
My short is now triggered and I will start to add to my overall position as the different signals start to show up! I will close the whole “campaign” at 1.0200 too. It seems like a reasonable place to put a Take Profit since it is a relevant support level. By then the position will have netted a great deal of pips. My only fear is the recent ranging behavior this pair has presented lately! Let’s hope it finally decides to make that great move :slight_smile: I will keep you updated! Happy trading!

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Good for you! It seems like it’s going your way now. That “Gartman Letter” sounds interesting, I should subscribe to that since I’m looking at commodities most of the time. Thanks for the tip!

Yep, an awesome weekend as always! How about you?

Great to hear your short AUD/USD trade already got triggered! My initial short entry on my demo account unfortunately didn’t. I entered half my usual position size at market though, since there’s a nice divergence on the 1h. Hoping this goes all the way down to 1.0200 like you predicted! Snook says “Gartman Letter” predicts a drop in gold prices, so that should be in our trade’s favor.

Happy trading!

Yiiiiiiikes. AUD/USD is back above 1.0500 again. Was that a false break??

Looks like it’s still inside the falling channel though. For those who shorted, where did you guys place your stops?

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I don’t know but I entered at 1.0550 with a 30 pip stop that just got triggered. I still feel bearish as long as it stays in that falling channel. Most likely I will short again at 1.0595 with another 30 pip stop. Unless there is a clear bullish continuation of course. I’m using Parabolic SAR, MACD, & STOCH for any reversal at that level to enter. What do you think? Next stop 1.0250?:smiley:

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Well, I’m looking at stochastic and it’s showing a bearish divergence on both the 1h and 4h timeframes. That 1.0600 level seems to be holding though. Did your second position get triggered too?

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I did not take the original Short, so excuse me for lobbing in thoughts from the outside, but my take is: I almost always take my trading bias, my overall position for the day, from the Daily chart. We have been in a sustained uptrend on AUD/USD since the double bottom a year ago. We did have a triangle forming, and we had a lower high, so it appeared that we might be reaching the end of the trend but to me, now, the picture looks more mixed. We have had mixed signals before - a head and shoulders formed in November, for instance, yet ultimately did not deter the trend - so the current two strong buying days, coupled with the low test on Monday, has me reluctant to short this pair right now. If I came to the pair fresh and stood back from my screen with a year or so’s data on there, I would say that we are in a stalled uptrend, which leads to an undecided market. So personally I am now flat on this pair until we get a clearer picture.

Of course, anything can happen, but I am just saying that my instinct today is to stay out and wait for a clearer signal of the overriding market sentiment. I don’t enter trades because of fundamentals (although I might stay out because of them), I much prefer to trade what I see, and the Daily is not giving me much today. Price seems very reluctant to close below 1.0500 and stay there, sufficiently so to be my overriding consideration looking at this pair.

(Incidentally, I did not take the initial short for two reasons - I did not see a close I liked below 1.0500, and I had entered a Long on EUR/AUD, as I preferred that setup, and did not want to double my exposure to one minor currency. My EUR/AUD trade hit my trailed Stop overnight for +0.25%/23 pips, so I am not much liking AUD this week - tough to predict!)

ST

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My second position was triggered. As for ST everything you are saying is for insightful although I have no intentions of closing this trade for the obvious reason that I need to stick to my trade plan. I can only hope I look at the market like you and happy pip do so I appreciate your thoughts. Maybe you could post your next setup on the this pair later on. Thanks

Obviously you are quite right, mainly for two reasons - 1) I don’t believe that anyone should ever enter or stay out of a trade because of someone else’s analysis, there are many reasons why it is essential only ever to trade one’s own analysis. 2) Noone is right every time, so Price could drop like a stone as I click ‘post reply’ on this post - it looks a little mixed to me right now, but it obviously has to go up or down at some point!

Anyway, it could be that you already look at the market with as much insight, or more, than happypip, myself, or anyone else - the joy of an internet forum is that we can all express our views with no hierarchy or any of that. When you make a few % on this one, I will be wishing I had not sat on my hands, after all…!!

Good luck with the trade.

I have to say I am quite disappointed with this trade as I never got confirmation on a reversal from my indicators. Maybe even a buy opportunity for some of you out there as there was a pretty bullish candle that broke through my descending triangle trend line although I would play it cautiously. As for me I need to take a breather and set up something a little more solid.

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Had Price not made a lower high on the Daily then I would probably have gone Long on the close of Monday’s bar, as you suggest, it being a low test into an area of Support, which corresponded with the 100ema and the 38.2 Fib level, but as we said earlier the picture was pretty mixed so I did not take it.

Very sorry to hear about your trade, but it was a credible setup, the market just doesn’t care, sometimes. Our strategies are quite different, perhaps, as that was quite a tight Stop, but the upside of that is that you don’t have to be right as often. So there will be plenty more fish in the sea, we all take losses so as long as we keep taking sensible setups it does not matter.

Sums up why I don’t use indicators, though - for me, they are just another thing to confuse the chart, and they are by no means always right, so I prefer to lean on a naked chart and some PA analysis. Emas are as close to indicators as I get, and that is because I like to see what Price has done previously, so I think of them as an historical data analysis tool, rather than an indication of what will happen next.

Sorry it did not work out this time.

ST

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I was stopped out with -30pips. No big deal in the grand sceme of things as my account is intact and I’ll be around for awhile. after looking at this from a loosing perspective, I remember saying that it looks to actually break above the descending triangle, and so thats kind of what it did. So my re-evaluation is that I should have listened to myself and went long yesterday morning not short.
Now that I take a step back and look at the daily chart, it looks to me that this pair is going to go in a downward channel at least in the short term, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to be a clean break to the downside, it looks more like a very slow curving downtrend. But I’m not sure how long that will last. So now, I’m just going to sit and watch and think and learn. I won’t place a trade until next week at the earliest given no big data is coming out of Aus this week and nothing from the US side that makes me want to play. So I’m going to watch where this pair ranges the rest of the week and see if next week brings a clearer picture.

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Yep, don’t sweat the 30 pips, snook! Aside from the downward channel that you spotted, there was also a nice bearish divergence, and even a nice overbought Stochastic signal on the chart. Hopefully we can get a clearer picture next week with lots of big U.S., Australia and Chinese data scheduled for release :slight_smile:

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