Happy Corner: Aussie (AUD) pairs
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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    Default Is AUD/USD ranging?

    AUD/USD is moving sideways on the 1-hour time frame, but it's right at the 1.0650 minor psychological resistance now. It looks like a reversal candle is forming right on that level and stochastic is overbought. Do you think it'd be a good idea to short just for a day trade?

    Here's the setup I'm looking at:



    I heard PBoC just hiked their RRR (again!) and, based on previous price action, this has been negative for the Aussie. What's your take on this pair?

  2. #2
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    For what it is worth, personally I would not go Short this pair just yet. The Monthly Pivot comes through the chart at around 1.0704. On the Daily chart, this pair has been ranging, recently, between that sort of level and around 1.0520. On the Daily, we are in an overall uptrend, and Price is low testing off the 50ema. So while I absolutely see where you are coming from with your analysis, for me there are other, higher-probability setups out there right now. The chances of Price retracing up to around the 1.0704 level is too great for me to want to go Short from the current level.

    Sorry to be negative, and hope that this is okay - first-time poster on this thread, not sure I am supposed to be presuming to advise one of the FX-Men lol!!

    ST

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by SimonTemplar View Post
    For what it is worth, personally I would not go Short this pair just yet. The Monthly Pivot comes through the chart at around 1.0704. On the Daily chart, this pair has been ranging, recently, between that sort of level and around 1.0520. On the Daily, we are in an overall uptrend, and Price is low testing off the 50ema. So while I absolutely see where you are coming from with your analysis, for me there are other, higher-probability setups out there right now. The chances of Price retracing up to around the 1.0704 level is too great for me to want to go Short from the current level.

    Sorry to be negative, and hope that this is okay - first-time poster on this thread, not sure I am supposed to be presuming to advise one of the FX-Men lol!!

    ST
    That's totally cool SimonTemplar! Don't sweat it! I posted this here because I really wanted to get some feedback from other traders. You see, my trading has been on a slump lately and I could really use your help.

    Thanks for the insights. I see that bigger range on the daily time frame now, and it looks like price broke above that resistance I pointed out. What other higher-probability setups are you seeing out there? Care to share?

  4. #4
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    Mar 2007
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    513

    Default Happy Corner: Aussie (AUD) pairs

    Happy day, guys!

    Since I've been getting tons of trade ideas from my friends on my @Happy_pip Twitter and Playing with Comdolls Facebook page, I decided to post some of my good trade ideas here.

    I'm not restricting the setups to AUD/USD though. As long as it's Aussie-related, then I'm all for it! After all, I like to watch AUD crosses too.

    I look forward to getting your feedback on these trade ideas of mine. Everyone is welcome to share their opinion so don't be shy!

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
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    3
    noob here; but i think 1.0730 could trigger a drop to, depending on how quickly price reaches this level, 1.0675. the highest probability trade is probably at 1.0850, down the yellow brick road to, 1.0675. good for almost 175 pips.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by happypip View Post
    That's totally cool SimonTemplar! Don't sweat it! I posted this here because I really wanted to get some feedback from other traders. You see, my trading has been on a slump lately and I could really use your help.

    Thanks for the insights. I see that bigger range on the daily time frame now, and it looks like price broke above that resistance I pointed out. What other higher-probability setups are you seeing out there? Care to share?

    Yes, AUD/USD seems to have respected the Resistance zone on the Daily and could be turning around, peeped above the Monthly Pivot and stalled around 1.0719, so could be looking at some downside now, but there are recent highs above the current level so I would still have mixed emotions about it.

    I find that the sort of range-bound approach out of horzontal Resistance that you suggested for the AUD/USD setup does work better, for me at least, when that range is taken from the Daily chart. A good example of this is the middle of February this year - I had 5% trades Short on CAD/CHF, GBP/CHF and USD/CHF around that time, applying exactly what you spotted on this occasion for AUD/USD but on the Daily chart. It really doesn't take many setups like that to make a good return - I was on around 15% for February just on those three trades. Once one has the confidence to know that setups like that will come along, it is easier to sit tight and resist taking any setup that seems to have any counter-argument.

    Recent trades I have taken - I shorted EUR/CAD out of the strong Resistance level at around 1.4340, I was Long on AUD/NZD from the Support at around 1.2815, and I was Short a couple of days ago on SGD/USD, out of some Support become Resistance that high-tested out of the Monthly Pivot. I had Fib support for each of those trades, and now have good pips locked in, have closed SGD/USD for around 1.5% profit I think.

    I generally don't like tipping specific setups ahead of time - I am strongly in favour of doing one's own research, not as a selfish thing, but rather as it is important for my psychology to find my own setups and know why I am in a given trade and, importantly, that I could replicate that same trade later. But what am I looking at now? If USD/CHF retraces up to around the 0.8555 level then I would look at shorting it, there are quite a few factors coming together, there. Am being cautious, though, as Price might want to retrace higher to continue the downward channel/intersect with a more powerful ema, perhaps the 50, which is has previously respected. CAD/CHF is currently retracing, will look for a similar setup there. 0.8920 is looking like Support become Resistance, Monthly Pivot, Fib, 50ema all coming together within a downtrend, so I am eying a Short there once the current retracement plays out. CHF/JPY has also been trending nicely, recently, so has given some nice intraday opportunities.

    So that is a couple that I am looking at. I find that cross pairs work very well on the Daily, they give good, concerted moves when they do go. I like intraday trades on the Majors, as the moves are quite concerted and one can find 'clean' spaces between the big news announcements.

    I am not surprised that you are finding something of a slump at the moment - the market is in a bit of a state of flux, the Eurozone is very uncertain, many currency pairs have hit all-time/recent year highs or lows, and that always introduces a bit of uncertainty to the market. I am finding intraday setups harder to come by - EUR/USD and Cable have both been a bit of an unpredictable mess, recently, compared with easier times, and that obviously communicates to much of the rest of the market. USD/JPY has not been giving much compared with recent months, either - imho it was nice and clean to trade prior to the March earthquake, but has still not quite decided what it is doing since. I am not saying that there are no good opportunities on the Majors, there absolutely are, I have made some decent intraday pips on the EUR Hourly chart recently, but the picture is not as clear as it could be.

    Anyway, apologies, I am both rambling on and beginning to sound like a Forex preacher, when noone knows the answer, really, we just grab the successes where we can and try to limit the losses.

    I hope that you have found some of the above of interest, at least, and don't find it condescending at all, that is absolutely not my intention.

    As you will know, slumps happen, it will just be a blip. The market always gives setups, they are just sometimes rarer than others. I think that we are in a bit of a thing period currently. For me, the picture also gets clearer through the month - I make better pips in the second half than the first, as a rule.

    Anyway, apologies for the extreme length of this post!

    Kind regards,

    ST

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    No worries, SimonTemplar! I didn't find it condescending at all! In fact, I enjoyed reading your post thoroughly, hoping to find some clues that can help me with my trading. You're right, it seems that the markets have been very fickle lately and sentiment just keeps changing. It's sometimes tough to identify which particular factors are driving the comdolls and even the major pairs. Thanks for the comforting words, too! I do hope my trading performance picks up during the second half of this month.

    Happy trading and see you around!

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by samk090905 View Post
    noob here; but i think 1.0730 could trigger a drop to, depending on how quickly price reaches this level, 1.0675. the highest probability trade is probably at 1.0850, down the yellow brick road to, 1.0675. good for almost 175 pips.
    Hey samk090905! I've been eyeing that 1.0730-1.0750 area, too. It looks like resistance on the 4-hour time frame. I'm not so sure about 1.0850 though, because AUD/USD could keep going all the way to 1.1000 if it breaks past 1.0750. Just my humble opinion.

    But if I were to short this pair, I'd probably set my sell order around 1.0730 like you said then aim for the support around 1.0550.

    Anyway, let's see how it pans out. We never know what the markets are up to, and we just might see that 175-pip drop that you predicted. I'd like to be on that "yellow brick road" that's for sure! Haha.

    See ya around!

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
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    3
    Good input...I am taking some range and retracement trades here on the AUDUSD but am also expecting a drop in Gold in the next couple of weeks. To that point, this pair may have time to cycle one more time up to 1.07 range. I am on board for that channel up currently...I seem to be drawn to bullish aud/usd like happy is to chocolate. Something about the carry trade just keeps me coming back.
    Trades in place, I'm off to grab my stash of chocolate morsels from my office freezer.
    Cheers, Y'all

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by foricks View Post
    I seem to be drawn to bullish aud/usd like happy is to chocolate. Something about the carry trade just keeps me coming back.
    Trades in place, I'm off to grab my stash of chocolate morsels from my office freezer.
    Cheers, Y'all
    LOL, you noticed?! I guess I really am THAT hooked to long AUD/USD trades. Aside from the carry trade, I think it's also the strength of the Australian economy in comparison to the U.S. But looking back on my long setups, I realized I should've been more flexible and should take risk sentiment into consideration.

    1.0500 seems to be holding on AUD/USD, plus a somewhat bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart. Then again, I don't know whether risk appetite is up. You could be right in saying that gold prices could drop in the near term.

    Anyway, good luck on your trades and enjoy those chocolates! Don't forget to share!

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