Happy Corner: Kiwi (NZD) pairs - Page 2
Page 2 of 32 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 12 ... LastLast
Results 11 to 20 of 315
  1. #11
    littlebopip Guest

    Default NZD/USD Day Trade

    I shorted at .8075 already. That's the 38.2% Fib on the 1-hour and the previous day high, too. There's also a bearish divergence. Just aiming for .8000 for a quick day trade, wish me luck!

  2. #12
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Peak District, UK
    Posts
    2,405
    I was Long this pair for quite a while. There is a pretty solid rising trendline on the Daily going back to last Summer. The only real blip on this is March, around the time of the Japan 'quake, but other than that it has been pretty sustained, and has given some nice setups when zeroing down to the lower timeframes for a nice Entry. I find that strong trendlines are often respected both sides of some big event causing a blip, even if at first glance at the chart it appears that the trendline has been broken. So while I like the double top for a Short, I would be wary of the inherent upward bias in the pair when setting TP/managing the trade, in case this continues and any fall turns out to be a retracement rather than a reversal. There is still room to trade, I would just take it into account.

    The rising trendline on my chart looks as though it could intersect with Price, the 38.2 Fib, the 100ema and a line of horizontal Support/Resistance somewhere around the 0.7850-0.7900 area (tough to predict so far ahead!!). Not saying that there won't be a Setup, there might well be, just saying that I have that in the back of my mind when I come to managing a trade - this could turn out to be countertrend, which is fine when played carefully, imho.

    The recent Christchurch aftershocks are another variable - my instinct is to sit on my hands for a while as I don't like placing myself in front of major news.

    I have preferred AUD/NZD to trade, recently.

    (I'm another Kiwi, btw, or rather a half, I have both UK and NZ passports, although have lived my whole life in Europe so am not claiming anything like peterthepipeater's credentials. Maybe we are just drawn to the pair?!)

    ST

  3. #13
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    513
    Quote Originally Posted by SimonTemplar View Post
    The rising trendline on my chart looks as though it could intersect with Price, the 38.2 Fib, the 100ema and a line of horizontal Support/Resistance somewhere around the 0.7850-0.7900 area (tough to predict so far ahead!!). Not saying that there won't be a Setup, there might well be, just saying that I have that in the back of my mind when I come to managing a trade - this could turn out to be countertrend, which is fine when played carefully, imho.

    The recent Christchurch aftershocks are another variable - my instinct is to sit on my hands for a while as I don't like placing myself in front of major news.

    I have preferred AUD/NZD to trade, recently.

    (I'm another Kiwi, btw, or rather a half, I have both UK and NZ passports, although have lived my whole life in Europe so am not claiming anything like peterthepipeater's credentials. Maybe we are just drawn to the pair?!)

    ST
    I see what you're referring to. That long-term rising trend line seems to be holding for now even though New Zealand's economy faces downside risks from that recent Christchurch quakes. Must be the carry trade, still?

    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 signatures.

  4. #14
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    513

    Default June 21, 2011

    It's the start of a brand new week, my forex friends! Do you have any trade ideas for Kiwi pairs? Post 'em here! Scalp trades and swing setups are both welcome!

    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 signatures.

  5. #15
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Peak District, UK
    Posts
    2,405
    Quote Originally Posted by happypip View Post
    I see what you're referring to. That long-term rising trend line seems to be holding for now even though New Zealand's economy faces downside risks from that recent Christchurch quakes. Must be the carry trade, still?

    Not sure that the carry trade alone is enough to keep the pair high in the current climate. There is no real USD strength, at the moment - their were great Short trades to be had on EUR/USD, recently, but that was because the Euro is so weakened by having relaxed the entry criteria for some of the weaker members (eg. Greece) than because of any inherent USD strength. The recent quake has not really created any new NZ problems that the original quake had not already given them, so perhaps the impact of the quakes as a whole has already been absorbed by the market? Anyway, there could be many reasons, I will just only trade a technical setup (as am not Short this pair as of now), and will not trade against a major fundamental event, so I am sitting on my hands for now, seeing which bias wins.

  6. #16
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    513
    Quote Originally Posted by SimonTemplar View Post
    I will just only trade a technical setup (as am not Short this pair as of now), and will not trade against a major fundamental event, so I am sitting on my hands for now, seeing which bias wins.
    Hmm, I see. It looks like it's consolidating tightly for now, no clear direction just yet. I'll be sitting on my hands for this pair, too. Thanks for your insight, it was really helpful in avoiding another losing trade. See ya around!

    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 signatures.

  7. #17
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Peak District, UK
    Posts
    2,405
    Quote Originally Posted by happypip View Post
    Hmm, I see. It looks like it's consolidating tightly for now, no clear direction just yet. I'll be sitting on my hands for this pair, too. Thanks for your insight, it was really helpful in avoiding another losing trade. See ya around!

    Yes, and on the Daily chart we made a higher high on 9th June, then a lower low on 16th June. Even when I don't trade directly off the Daily, I let my overall trading direction be informed by it. So I am certainly waiting.

  8. #18
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    513

    Default Symmetrical Triangle on NZD/USD 4H

    Hey all!

    Big Pippin told me there's a symmetrical triangle forming on NZD/USD's 4-hour chart and I'd like to know what you think of this setup:



    Do you think we'll see an upside breakout or will this just fall to the bottom?

    Stochastic is almost in the overbought area, but risk seems to be on lately. I'm torn!

    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 signatures.

  9. #19
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Peak District, UK
    Posts
    2,405
    Quote Originally Posted by happypip View Post
    Hey all!

    Big Pippin told me there's a symmetrical triangle forming on NZD/USD's 4-hour chart and I'd like to know what you think of this setup:



    Do you think we'll see an upside breakout or will this just fall to the bottom?

    Stochastic is almost in the overbought area, but risk seems to be on lately. I'm torn!

    Morning happyhip. Looking at the Daily, we are in an overall uptrend on this pair, and Price low-tested both yesterday and Monday, seemingly finding Support a whisker above the significant 0.8000 level. This area is also currently supported by the 50ema. Yesterday's low test was also off the 50 fib level. So all of this would support an upside breakout.

    However, 0.8120 or so has been a major Resistance level going back a few years, with Price really not wanting to move above 0.8200 - last month was the first time that it has managed it, and it was sent back south again pretty quickly. Given that Price is currently around 0.8150, I would not feel confident going Long at the current level.

    When all-time highs and lows are reached for a Pair, there is often a good trade to be had trading a high- or low-test out of this new level.

    So my instinct would be either to wait for a retracement and some clear reasons to go Long from a lower level, or wait for a test of a new high and look to take a Short up there. For me, at the moment, the picture is a bit mixed.

    I realize that this might well be redundant, as your Triangle has presumably been broken by the latest bar, so you are either in the trade already or have junked the setup, but thought I would share my thoughts, for what it is worth!!

    ST

  10. #20
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    513
    Oh wow, it did break out already! I didn't take any trades on this pair since I couldn't really pick a clear direction. Decided to watch the USD/CAD and AUD/USD channels instead

    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 signatures.

Forum Sponsors

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
"You have brains in your head. Your feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself in any direction you choose."
Dr. Seuss