Happy Corner: Kiwi (NZD) pairs - Page 3
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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Auckland, New Zealand
    Posts
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by happypip View Post
    Oh wow, it did break out already! I didn't take any trades on this pair since I couldn't really pick a clear direction. Decided to watch the USD/CAD and AUD/USD channels instead
    This is exactly what I wrote but then clicked the wrong button and it was all gone AUD and CAD look more vulnerable at present with softer "hard" commodities and oil. And let's not forget about end of Q2 and H1 of 2011 ahead of long US weekend. Extra volatility guaranteed included Greece. Next week could be pivotal for the future as big players start H2 2011 IMHO.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    513
    Quote Originally Posted by peterthepipeater View Post
    This is exactly what I wrote but then clicked the wrong button and it was all gone AUD and CAD look more vulnerable at present with softer "hard" commodities and oil. And let's not forget about end of Q2 and H1 of 2011 ahead of long US weekend. Extra volatility guaranteed included Greece. Next week could be pivotal for the future as big players start H2 2011 IMHO.
    Now that you mention it, I'm really convinced we're in for some crazy moves! I totally forgot about that long weekend though. Maybe we'll see a lot of profit-taking before the end of the week then? A midweek reversal perhaps?

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  3. #23
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Auckland, New Zealand
    Posts
    5
    Greek vote expected in an hour. Key for immediate direction. We have a lethal mix with a major event at this time of the year Reaction might be sell the news...

    that Kiwi learned to fly!

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    513
    Quote Originally Posted by peterthepipeater View Post
    Greek vote expected in an hour. Key for immediate direction. We have a lethal mix with a major event at this time of the year Reaction might be sell the news...

    that Kiwi learned to fly!
    Looks like you're right about the selling the news part! Those wicks aren't looking good for the Kiwi right now. You have any positions on?

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  5. #25
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Auckland, New Zealand
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    5
    I did not have Kiwi position. I positioned myself in the bed as it was past midnight here

    Though I put on a short AUD earlier because it looked more vulnerable... shot through my SL needless to say

    Today seems to be a day for profit taking and position squaring after these massive rallies. Support comes in at 0.8170/80 on my chart. Broken resistance meets 50% FIB. But we may have to wait till next week...

    Q2 GDP is due next week. I will do some research on how it progressed as it could have a significant impact on the pair.

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    513
    Quote Originally Posted by peterthepipeater View Post
    Q2 GDP is due next week. I will do some research on how it progressed as it could have a significant impact on the pair.
    I'm keeping an eye out for that GDP release, too. Could be a big mover. Let us know if you have any setups for playing this report, all right? Happy pipping!

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  7. #27
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Auckland, New Zealand
    Posts
    5
    GDP data (which is Q1 not Q2 as I wrote earlier) has been delayed for another week to July 14. According to NZ Herald Statistics New Zealand, the government statistician needs more time to analyse the data having previously pushed out the scheduled June 23 release after the Canterbury earthquakes, which have severely damaged its Christchurch office.

    This makes the Kiwi dependent upon risk sentiment. Which has kind of soured lately with milk prices dropped (the biggest export commodity of NZ) and China slowdown fears combined with debt crisis in Europe. Technically the pair has been consolidating below record highs after last week's rally. Resistance at 0.8315/25 and support at 0.8230. Longer term trend is still bullish but with risk of a deeper correction IMHO. Until this range gave up I am staying away from the Kiwi...

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Peak District, UK
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    2,405
    Quote Originally Posted by peterthepipeater View Post
    GDP data (which is Q1 not Q2 as I wrote earlier) has been delayed for another week to July 14. According to NZ Herald Statistics New Zealand, the government statistician needs more time to analyse the data having previously pushed out the scheduled June 23 release after the Canterbury earthquakes, which have severely damaged its Christchurch office.

    This makes the Kiwi dependent upon risk sentiment. Which has kind of soured lately with milk prices dropped (the biggest export commodity of NZ) and China slowdown fears combined with debt crisis in Europe. Technically the pair has been consolidating below record highs after last week's rally. Resistance at 0.8315/25 and support at 0.8230. Longer term trend is still bullish but with risk of a deeper correction IMHO. Until this range gave up I am staying away from the Kiwi...

    I'd second that - am staying out until we see some sort of retracement, then take a view on whether that is a trend reversal ahead of shorting opportunities, or simply a retracement within the overall uptrend. I am certainly waiting until the Support around 0.8100 or even 0.8000 is tested.

    ST

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    513
    Quote Originally Posted by peterthepipeater View Post
    Longer term trend is still bullish but with risk of a deeper correction IMHO. Until this range gave up I am staying away from the Kiwi...
    Same here! I'm marking my calendar for the July 14 release though, since this could push the Kiwi in a clearer direction.

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  10. #30
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    Mar 2007
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    513
    Hmm, pretty quiet in my comdoll corners lately. Don't tell me y'all are also spent the last few days re-reading the Harry Potter books like I did! How's everyone doing so far?

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"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgment."
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