Happy Corner: Kiwi (NZD) pairs

Hmm, I see. It looks like itā€™s consolidating tightly for now, no clear direction just yet. Iā€™ll be sitting on my hands for this pair, too. Thanks for your insight, it was really helpful in avoiding another losing trade. See ya around!

Yes, and on the Daily chart we made a higher high on 9th June, then a lower low on 16th June. Even when I donā€™t trade directly off the Daily, I let my overall trading direction be informed by it. So I am certainly waiting.

Hey all!

Big Pippin told me thereā€™s a symmetrical triangle forming on NZD/USDā€™s 4-hour chart and Iā€™d like to know what you think of this setup:

[B]Do you think weā€™ll see an upside breakout or will this just fall to the bottom? [/B]

Stochastic is almost in the overbought area, but risk seems to be on lately. Iā€™m torn!

Morning happyhip. Looking at the Daily, we are in an overall uptrend on this pair, and Price low-tested both yesterday and Monday, seemingly finding Support a whisker above the significant 0.8000 level. This area is also currently supported by the 50ema. Yesterdayā€™s low test was also off the 50 fib level. So all of this would support an upside breakout.

However, 0.8120 or so has been a major Resistance level going back a few years, with Price really not wanting to move above 0.8200 - last month was the first time that it has managed it, and it was sent back south again pretty quickly. Given that Price is currently around 0.8150, I would not feel confident going Long at the current level.

When all-time highs and lows are reached for a Pair, there is often a good trade to be had trading a high- or low-test out of this new level.

So my instinct would be either to wait for a retracement and some clear reasons to go Long from a lower level, or wait for a test of a new high and look to take a Short up there. For me, at the moment, the picture is a bit mixed.

I realize that this might well be redundant, as your Triangle has presumably been broken by the latest bar, so you are either in the trade already or have junked the setup, but thought I would share my thoughts, for what it is worth!!

ST

Oh wow, it did break out already! I didnā€™t take any trades on this pair since I couldnā€™t really pick a clear direction. Decided to watch the USD/CAD and AUD/USD channels instead :slight_smile:

This is exactly what I wrote but then clicked the wrong button and it was all gone :frowning: AUD and CAD look more vulnerable at present with softer ā€œhardā€ commodities and oil. And letā€™s not forget about end of Q2 and H1 of 2011 ahead of long US weekend. Extra volatility guaranteed included Greece. :slight_smile: Next week could be pivotal for the future as big players start H2 2011 IMHO.

Now that you mention it, Iā€™m really convinced weā€™re in for some crazy moves! I totally forgot about that long weekend though. Maybe weā€™ll see a lot of profit-taking before the end of the week then? A midweek reversal perhaps?

Greek vote expected in an hour. Key for immediate direction. We have a lethal mix with a major event at this time of the year :slight_smile: Reaction might be sell the newsā€¦

that Kiwi learned to fly!

Looks like youā€™re right about the selling the news part! Those wicks arenā€™t looking good for the Kiwi right now. You have any positions on? :slight_smile:

I did not have Kiwi position. I positioned myself in the bed as it was past midnight here :slight_smile:

Though I put on a short AUD earlier because it looked more vulnerableā€¦ shot through my SL needless to say

Today seems to be a day for profit taking and position squaring after these massive rallies. Support comes in at 0.8170/80 on my chart. Broken resistance meets 50% FIB. But we may have to wait till next weekā€¦

Q2 GDP is due next week. I will do some research on how it progressed as it could have a significant impact on the pair.

Iā€™m keeping an eye out for that GDP release, too. Could be a big mover. Let us know if you have any setups for playing this report, all right? Happy pipping!

GDP data (which is Q1 not Q2 as I wrote earlier) has been delayed for another week to July 14. According to NZ Herald Statistics New Zealand, the government statistician needs more time to analyse the data having previously pushed out the scheduled June 23 release after the Canterbury earthquakes, which have severely damaged its Christchurch office.

This makes the Kiwi dependent upon risk sentiment. Which has kind of soured lately with milk prices dropped (the biggest export commodity of NZ) and China slowdown fears combined with debt crisis in Europe. Technically the pair has been consolidating below record highs after last weekā€™s rally. Resistance at 0.8315/25 and support at 0.8230. Longer term trend is still bullish but with risk of a deeper correction IMHO. Until this range gave up I am staying away from the Kiwiā€¦

Iā€™d second that - am staying out until we see some sort of retracement, then take a view on whether that is a trend reversal ahead of shorting opportunities, or simply a retracement within the overall uptrend. I am certainly waiting until the Support around 0.8100 or even 0.8000 is tested.

ST

Same here! Iā€™m marking my calendar for the July 14 release though, since this could push the Kiwi in a clearer direction.

Hmm, pretty quiet in my comdoll corners lately. Donā€™t tell me yā€™all are also spent the last few days re-reading the Harry Potter books like I did! Howā€™s everyone doing so far?

Took a few days out having made some pips on the back of the recent craziness elsewhere, but am back in the saddle now.

Obviously lots of news around at the moment, not least today, but we are currently at an all-time high for this pair - could be interesting to go short if todayā€™s bar on the Daily closes as a high test. Certainly one I am looking at, at the moment.

Iā€™m watching this pair too. Looking like an ascending triangle on the 1-hour and 4-hour time frames. Letā€™s wait and see :slight_smile:

Hey all!

What do you think of this NZD/USD retracement play?

The pair has been on a strong downtrend lately and there could be a chance to hop in on the retracement to the 61.8% Fib. That lines up with the former support level around .8725. Stochastic still hasnā€™t crossed nor reached overbought, which means there could be still room for the pair to climb.

That red candle is tempting thoughā€¦ Should I short at market or wait for it to reach .8275?

Good morning happypip. Is that an Hourly chart? I absolutely see what you are saying, but the Daily and 240 charts make me nervous. 0.8000 is a major level of Support, and each chart has low-tested out of it. There will be people looking at the low test on the Daily as a reason to go Long. There is often a correlation to AUD/USD, though, and obviously that is dropping, so I am not seeing a clear signal. Had the Hourly high-tested I might have looked for a short-term Short, but personally I am just finding the picture too mixed to see a clean setup. It is pretty slim pickings all round, at the moment.

If the Kiwi closes today as a low test on the Daily then there will be a lot of long orders placed. So much as we had with AUD a couple of weeks ago, I am going to wait for a clearer direction to emerge.

If you do want to go short, then certainly the 0.8275 figure you mention is at the Daily Pivot, so is an area where Price could react. But as I say, I am not going short with the Daily as it is currently.

Sorry to sound like an old stick-in-the-mud!! Iā€™m ā€˜onlyā€™ 37!! I just figure that I really donā€™t need that many setups in a month to make some good money, so I donā€™t like a mixed picture.

ST

Hahaha, itā€™s cool SimonTemplar! I definitely appreciate your longer-term thoughts on this pair, especially since I tend to forget to look at the daily charts for the overall trend.

I just thought Iā€™d get a quick scalp trade from this, but itā€™s a good thing I didnā€™t short because it just busted through those Fib levels I drew!