HUCKDATE: Thoughts on EUR/USD - Page 3
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  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by FringFX View Post
    curious... what happened to your last short?
    which charting software are you using?
    Thanks Huck!
    I use Xtick! See what happened to my trade a few posts up!

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Bergen, Norway
    Posts
    456
    Good luck with the trade. The major risk events coming up make this a 50/50 play.

  3. #23

    Default HLHB Weekly Update - August 6, 2012

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    Awesome, awesome week for the HLHB Trend-Catcher! Thanks to the trending EUR/USD, the system was able to bag a net total of 297 pips!

    With the number of high profile economic events lined up last week, the pair exhibited a lot of volatility. I thought the HLHB Trend-Catcher would get faked out a lot, but thankfully, the pair made a lot of intraday trends. That, of course, was good for my system.

    Here's a rundown of the trades it took:

    1. Invalid signal since RSI was below the 50.0 level the candle prior.
    2. Long at 1.2273. Closed at 1.2259 due to new crossover. -14 pips.
    3. Invalid signal since RSI was already below 50.0 the candle prior.
    4. Long at 1.2283. Closed at 1.2292 due to new crossover. +9 pips.
    5. Short at 1.2292. Closed at 1.2318 due to new crossover. -26 pips.
    6. Long at 1.2318. Closed at 1.2297 due to new crossover. -21 pips.
    7. Short at 1.2297. Closed at 1.2262 due to new crossover. +35 pips.
    8. Long at 1.2262. Closed at 1.2354 when 50-pip trailing stop was hit. +94 pips.
    9. Short at 1.2213. Closed at 1.2184 when 50-pip trailing stop was hit. +29 pips.
    10. Long at 1.2193. Closed when 200-pip target was hit. +200 pips.

    Total Gain: +297 pips

  4. #24

    Default Bearish Confluence on EUR/USD?

    Trade Idea: 2012-8-8 23:20

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    Will you look at that?!? ***y, ain't it? EUR/USD, after touching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, formed two dojis. Right after that, a bearish candlestick formed, telling me that the pair could be headed down. To add to my downside bias, there also seems to be a bearish divergence going on as price has been making "lower highs" while the Stochastic has been "higher highs."

    I believe that the fundamentals are also in my favor. Yesterday markets were once again reminded that the European debt crisis is still far from being over. The euro gave up ground to most of its counterparts following rumors that the ECB would hold off purchasing bonds until the German Constitutional Court approves the ESM. On top of that, S&P also lowered its credit rating outlook for Greece from stable to negative.

    Sure, the shared currency sometimes rallies when risk appetite is up. But looking at the bigger picture, both fundamentally and technically, I think that markets are still bearish on the euro. That's just me though!

    Because my technical and fundamental analysis have lined up, I've decided to sell at market. I'm ultimately aiming for 1.2100, but I'll be taking part of my position every now and then if the trade goes my way. As for my stop, I've placed it 100 pips away, just a couple of pips above the 61.8% Fib.

    To recap:

    Sell at market (1.2380), PT 1 at 1.2200, PT 2 at 1.2100, SL at 1.2480. Risk disclosure.

    There ya go! That's my trade idea for today. What's yours?


    XOXO,

    Huck

  5. #25

    Default HLHB Weekly Update - August 13, 2012

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    Remember the still-open trade that I cited in my last update? It closed with a 47-pip win at 1.2243 when the 50-pip trailing stop got hit.

    The HLHB Trend-Catcher system's gains were only limited last week because there were no big trends that materialized on EUR/USD. But I'm still pretty happy with my system's performance because the RSI was able to filter a couple of fakeouts. Here's a quick rundown of the signals that materialized:

    1. Invalid signal since RSI did not cross 50.0.
    2. Long at 1.2392. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2388. -4 pips.
    3. Invalid signal since RSI did not cross 50.0.
    4. Invalid signal since RSI did not cross 50.0.
    5. Short at 1.2390. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2424. -34 pips.
    6. Long at 1.2425. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2398. -27 pips.
    7. Short at 1.2398. Trailing stop hit at 1.2377. +21 pips.
    8. Invalid signal since RSI was not above 50.0.
    9. Short at 1.2351. Trailing stop hit at 1.2291. +60 pips.
    10. Long at 1.2314. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2275. -39 pips.

    Total (including the trade from the previous week): +24 pips


    I'd be lying if I told you that I'm contented with how my HLHB Trend-Catcher is doing though. I mean I'm happy with it, but I think I can tweak it more to make it even better.

    I'm thinking about removing the 50-pip trailing stop for weekend trades like what I did last week. I'll replace it with a regular 50-pip stop if the trade remains open over the weekend.

    As I've said in my HLHB Q2 2012 review, all weekend trades that materialized during the quarter closed as winners. Also, the open trade that I pointed out in my last update could've hit my 200-pip profit target at 1.2396 had there been no trailing stop in place.

    What do you think? Please lemme know what your thoughts are by voting in the poll! Thank you!
    Last edited by Huck; 08-13-2012 at 11:57 PM.

  6. #26

    Default EUR/USD Trade Update

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    As for my EUR/USD trade, it's currently up 89 pips. That may seem a lot, but I also have a wide 100-pip stop.

    This means that I need to let it ride the downtrend further so that my reward-to-risk ratio is more than 1:1. I am trading the daily time frame, which means I'll be holding on to the trade longer than usual.

  7. #27
    It looks like the trend line held. Yikes! I'm moving my stop to breakeven to be safe.

  8. #28

    Default HLHB Weekly Update - August 20, 2012

    HLHB Trend-Catcher

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    There were a lot of fakeouts last week, but thankfully, the HLHB Trend-Catcher still ended up positive. The gain wasn't impressive though, as the system only bagged a grand total of 15 pips.

    Here are the trades and their corresponding results:

    1. Invalid signal since RSI was already below 50.0 before the downward crossover.
    2. Another invalid signal since RSI was over 50.0 before the upward crossover.
    3. Invalid signal since RSI was below 50.0 before the downward crossover.
    4. Long at 1.2296. Closed when 50-pip trailing stop was hit at 1.2225. +71 pips.
    5. Short at 1.2326. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2342. -16 pips.
    6. Long at 1.2342. Closed when 50-pip trailing stop was hit at 1.2337. -5 pips.
    7. Short at 1.2334. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2333. -1 pip.
    8. Long at 1.2333. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2323. -10 pips.
    9. Short at 1.2323. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2334. -11 pips.
    10. Long at 1.2334. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2311. -23 pips.
    11. Short at 1.2311. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2304. +7 pips.
    12. Long at 1.2304. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2283. -21 pips.
    13. Invalid signal since RSI was below 50.0 before the downward crossover.
    14. Long at 1.2325. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2349. +24 pips.
    15. Invalid signal since RSI was already above 50.0.
    16. Another invalid signal since RSI did not cross the 50.0 level.
    17. RSI was above 50.0 during the crossover. Invalid signal.

    Total gain: +15 pips

    As you can see, there were numerous fakeouts, especially during the middle of the week. What I've learned from the months I have been testing the system is that fakeouts are normal. Systems catch them from time to time, but you can't completely eliminate them. I'm just glad that the system had another positive week.

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Bergen, Norway
    Posts
    456
    I believe its about time you opened a thread to get the programming wizards to make this system into an EA...

  10. #30

    Default HLHB Weekly Update - September 3, 2012

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    You could say it was a "so-so" week for the HLHB Trend-Catcher. It came out with a gain at the end of the week, but its win wasn't spectacular. Here's the list of trades that the system generated:

    1. Invalid signal since RSI was above 50.0 before the crossover candle.
    2. Invalid signal since RSI was below 50.0 before the crossover candle.
    3. Long at 1.2507. Closed at 1.2556 due to new crossover. +49 pips.
    4. Invalid signal since RSI was above 50.0.
    5. Long at 1.2538. Closed at 1.2499 due to new crossover. -39 pips.
    6. Short at 1.2499. Closed at 1.2516 due to new crossover. -17 pips.
    7. Invalid long since RSI was below 50.0.
    8. Invalid signal since RSI did not cross the 50.0 level from above.
    9. Long at 1.2546. Closed at 1.2588. +42 pips.

    Total Gain: +42 pips

    Am I bummed out that my system hasn't been raking in a lot of pips? To an extent, yes, but I have to understand that it is the summer. During this time, the market tends to range, which means less trend plays and big moves.

    I should even be happy now that my system ISN'T losing. Most trend-following systems normally experience huge drawdowns in times like this.

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