I use Xtick 
I just posted an update! It looks like EUR/USD broke higher at least on the 1hr tf. But it hasn’t closed yet.
Noticed the higher lows just today. Thanks for the heads up!
I see that a move as a fake out, trigger some longs above Asia high then head back down.
fake break out?? that means we are going south? let see i like the northern part anyway enjoy
Did ou notice the bounce off the 4h trend line plus a bearish divergence on 1hr?
enjoy
Xtick charting platform? How is it compared to MT4 (if you use MT4)?
Thank you!
are we seeing a new low? there is a break out in the triangle on the 4hrs
enjoy
HLHB Trend-Catcher
Remember what I said about Trend-Catcher trades which are left open over the weekend always closed as winners? I think I jinxed it! The last signal that I pointed out last week (long at 1.2234) turned out to be a 7-pip loser. Boo!
But, I have to say that I’m pretty happy with how the Trend-Catcher performed. Despite EUR/USD being in consolidation for the most part of the week, it still closed with a 7-pip win.
Here’s a breakdown of the trades:
- Short at 1.2227. Trailing stop hit at 1.2225. -2 pips.
- Long at 1.2239. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2282. +43 pips.
- Invalid short signal since RSI did not cross 50.
- Long at 1.2288. Closed on new crossover at 1.2275. -13 pips.
- Short at 1.2275. Trailing stop hit at 1.2266. +9 pips.
- Invalid long signal since RSI did not cross 50.
- Short at 1.2272. Trailing stop hit at 1.2279. -7 pips.
- Long at 1.2281. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2258. -23 pips.
- Short 1.2258, still open…
Having a 50-pip trailing stop in place kept my losses limited. Also, the RSI did a pretty good job filtering out fakeouts too!
After dropping to its lowest level in more than 2 years, it looks like EUR/USD is starting to pullback. I think this is the perfect opportunity to consider jumping in on the overall trend!
Truth be told, I’d like to sell right at market. But with Stochastic showing that conditions aren’t overbought yet, I’ve decided to wait for the pair to trade a little bit higher. I’m going to sell at around 1.2160, which is the area between the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels.
I’m also thinking that the broken support level could potentially serve as an inflection point. Remember, whenever price passes through a major support level, that level usually turns to resistance.
Fundamentally, there hasn’t been any real positive development in Europe. Pip Diddy reported that the euro rallied from its lows yesterday following ECB Member Nowotny’s remarks about the advantages of giving the ESM a banking license. However, the fact is, Germany hasn’t even approved the rescue fund yet!
On top of that, Spanish bond yields are still at unsustainable levels. Although borrowing costs for 10-year bonds retreated from their euro-era highs of 7.62%, they are still above the crucial 7% mark, the level which forced Greece, Ireland, and Portugal to ask for bailouts.
And so, I believe that the pick-up in risk appetite yesterday won’t last and has only given me the perfect opportunity to sell EUR/USD at a better price!
Here’s what I plan to do:
Short EUR/USD at 1.2160, PT1 at 1.2050, PT2 at 1.1900, SL at 1.2240. As usual, I will risk 1% of my account. (Risk disclosure.)
XOXO,
Huck
*Cross-posted from my blog, The Loonie Adventures of a Forex Noob
Connection went down when I was about to enter my trade! Drats! I jumped in at market instead and sold EUR/USD at 1.0250. Wish me luck!
curious… what happened to your last short?
which charting software are you using?
Thanks Huck!
My HLHB Trend-Catcher System’s performance last week was as action-packed as the Olympics! Although there were no big trends on EUR/USD, it still closed with a 150-pip gain! Well that is adding the last trade from the week prior.
Remember trade number 12 from my HLHB update last week (short at 1.2258)? It closed at 1.2117 when the 50-pip trailing stop got hit and garnered a 141-pip win.
For last week, my system generated 11 trades and finished with a net win of 9 pips. Not bad if you ask me since EUR/USD was pretty volatile.
Here’s a rundown of the trades that materialized:
- Long at 1.2126. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2111. +15 pips.
- Short at 1.2111. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2077. +34 pips.
- Invalid long signal since RSI was not above 50.
- Invalid short signal since RSI did not cross 50.
- Long at 1.2090. Trailing stop hit at 1.2120. +30 pips.
- Short at 1.2130. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2156. -26 pips.
- Long at 1.2156. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2124. -32 pips.
- Short at 1.2124. Trailing stop hit at 1.2167. -43 pips.
- Long at 1.2224. Trailing stop hit at 1.2281. +57 pips.
- Short at 1.2248.Traling stop hit at 1.2292. -44 pips.
- Long at 1.2310. Trailing stop hit at 1.2328. +18 pips.
Total Gain (including last week’s open trade): +150 pips
As for my EUR/USD trade…
Unfortunately, my discretionary trading did not perform as well. I struck out again, bringing my losing streak to three.
This time, it was the result of ECB President Mario Draghi’s pledge. According to him, the central bank would do everything in its power to make sure the euro remains intact. This proved to be extremely beneficial for the euro, as it staged a major rally versus the dollar.
Stopped out at 1.2250: -100 pips / -1.0%
Ah, well… I hope there are better days ahead. My confidence is shot, and I need to come up with a winning trade soon…
XOXO,
Huck
I’ve been wrong a lot lately, so this time I’m gonna play it safe. My account has taken a hit with three straight losses. But hopefully, this time around, I’ll be able to score a win.
My plan is to buy GBP/USD. If you zoom out to the 4-hour timeframe, you’ll actually see the pair making higher lows. A rising trend line also becomes apparent when you connect them. I’m anticipating the pair to find some support at it, around 1.5500.
But I don’t want to get ahead of myself so I won’t pull the trigger until I see reversal candlesticks materialize around the psychological handle. I have the candlestick cheat sheet from the School of Pipsology printed so I know what to look for!
Another reason I’m very cautious on going long is because of the Bank of England (BOE)'s interest rate decision later. It’s widely expected that the central bank will hold rates at 0.50% and hold off on any additional stimulus measures.
If the BOE doesn’t say anything bearish and drops clues that its quantitative easing program is working, the pound could rally. On the other hand, if the central bank shows concern on the economy, the pound could sell-off again. I think anything can happen really!
In any case, if I do decide to buy the pair, I’ll set my stop well below its most recent low at 1.5440. Should price go down to this level, my trade idea would already be invalidated as it would mean that support at the trend line failed. As for my profit target, I’ll be aiming for the resistance area around 1.5720.
To recap, my plan is to:
Buy GBP/USD at 1.5500, SL at 1.5440, PT at 1.5720. Risk 1%. Risk disclosure.
XOXO,
Huck
I use Xtick! See what happened to my trade a few posts up!
Good luck with the trade. The major risk events coming up make this a 50/50 play.
Awesome, awesome week for the HLHB Trend-Catcher! Thanks to the trending EUR/USD, the system was able to bag a net total of 297 pips!
With the number of high profile economic events lined up last week, the pair exhibited a lot of volatility. I thought the HLHB Trend-Catcher would get faked out a lot, but thankfully, the pair made a lot of intraday trends. That, of course, was good for my system.
Here’s a rundown of the trades it took:
- Invalid signal since RSI was below the 50.0 level the candle prior.
- Long at 1.2273. Closed at 1.2259 due to new crossover. -14 pips.
- Invalid signal since RSI was already below 50.0 the candle prior.
- Long at 1.2283. Closed at 1.2292 due to new crossover. +9 pips.
- Short at 1.2292. Closed at 1.2318 due to new crossover. -26 pips.
- Long at 1.2318. Closed at 1.2297 due to new crossover. -21 pips.
- Short at 1.2297. Closed at 1.2262 due to new crossover. +35 pips.
- Long at 1.2262. Closed at 1.2354 when 50-pip trailing stop was hit. +94 pips.
- Short at 1.2213. Closed at 1.2184 when 50-pip trailing stop was hit. +29 pips.
- Long at 1.2193. Closed when 200-pip target was hit. +200 pips.
Total Gain: +297 pips
Trade Idea: 2012-8-8 23:20
Will you look at that?!? Sexy, ain’t it? EUR/USD, after touching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, formed two dojis. Right after that, a bearish candlestick formed, telling me that the pair could be headed down. To add to my downside bias, there also seems to be a bearish divergence going on as price has been making “lower highs” while the Stochastic has been “higher highs.”
I believe that the fundamentals are also in my favor. Yesterday markets were once again reminded that the European debt crisis is still far from being over. The euro gave up ground to most of its counterparts following rumors that the ECB would hold off purchasing bonds until the German Constitutional Court approves the ESM. On top of that, S&P also lowered its credit rating outlook for Greece from stable to negative.
Sure, the shared currency sometimes rallies when risk appetite is up. But looking at the bigger picture, both fundamentally and technically, I think that markets are still bearish on the euro. That’s just me though!
Because my technical and fundamental analysis have lined up, I’ve decided to sell at market. I’m ultimately aiming for 1.2100, but I’ll be taking part of my position every now and then if the trade goes my way. As for my stop, I’ve placed it 100 pips away, just a couple of pips above the 61.8% Fib.
To recap:
Sell at market (1.2380), PT 1 at 1.2200, PT 2 at 1.2100, SL at 1.2480. Risk disclosure.
There ya go! That’s my trade idea for today. What’s yours?
XOXO,
Huck
Remember the still-open trade that I cited in my last update? It closed with a 47-pip win at 1.2243 when the 50-pip trailing stop got hit.
The HLHB Trend-Catcher system’s gains were only limited last week because there were no big trends that materialized on EUR/USD. But I’m still pretty happy with my system’s performance because the RSI was able to filter a couple of fakeouts. Here’s a quick rundown of the signals that materialized:
- Invalid signal since RSI did not cross 50.0.
- Long at 1.2392. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2388. -4 pips.
- Invalid signal since RSI did not cross 50.0.
- Invalid signal since RSI did not cross 50.0.
- Short at 1.2390. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2424. -34 pips.
- Long at 1.2425. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2398. -27 pips.
- Short at 1.2398. Trailing stop hit at 1.2377. +21 pips.
- Invalid signal since RSI was not above 50.0.
- Short at 1.2351. Trailing stop hit at 1.2291. +60 pips.
- Long at 1.2314. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2275. -39 pips.
Total (including the trade from the previous week): +24 pips
I’d be lying if I told you that I’m contented with how my HLHB Trend-Catcher is doing though. I mean I’m happy with it, but I think I can tweak it more to make it even better.
I’m thinking about removing the 50-pip trailing stop for weekend trades like what I did last week. I’ll replace it with a regular 50-pip stop if the trade remains open over the weekend.
As I’ve said in my HLHB Q2 2012 review, all weekend trades that materialized during the quarter closed as winners. Also, the open trade that I pointed out in my last update could’ve hit my 200-pip profit target at 1.2396 had there been no trailing stop in place.
What do you think? Please lemme know what your thoughts are by voting in the poll! Thank you!
As for my EUR/USD trade, it’s currently up 89 pips. That may seem a lot, but I also have a wide 100-pip stop.
This means that I need to let it ride the downtrend further so that my reward-to-risk ratio is more than 1:1. I am trading the daily time frame, which means I’ll be holding on to the trade longer than usual.