HUCKDATE: Thoughts on GBP/USD
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  1. #1

    Default HUCKDATE: Thoughts on GBP/USD

    Hi guys! I'll be re-posting all of my trade ideas on GBP/USD in this thread from my blog, The Loonie Adventures of a Forex Noob. Wee! I'm so excited to hear your thoughts about them.

    XOXO,

    Huck

  2. #2

    Default GBP/USD: Betting on an Ascending Triangle Break

    Is there anything ***ier than a breakout? A breakout setup, I mean! I spotted one on GBP/USD and I have to say I'm smitten. Today, I'm buying GBP/USD!

    Trade Idea: 2012-7-19 00:10

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    Similar to the EUR/USD setup that Big Pippin pointed out in his Daily Chart Art, there's also an ascending triangle on GBP/USD in the hourly time frame. The pair has been making higher lows since the start of the week but hasn't been able to close above 1.5670.

    I've learned in the School of Pipsology that this is usually taken as a bullish pattern, so I'm going long! But I'm going to wait for the pair to make a new high first, just to be safe.

    My plan is to go long at 1.5690 (above Tuesday's high). If I get triggered, I'll take profit on half of my position at June's high around 1.5780 and let the remainder ride the trend. (Hopefully, it rallies back up to 1.6000!) I'll place my stop at 1.5600, below support at the rising trend line.

    The fundamentals also line up. In the most recent MPC Meeting Minutes, it was revealed that the vote to extend the central bank's asset purchase program was NOT unanimous.

    It was actually 7-2, with Spencer Dale and Ben Broadbent opting to keep the program at 325 billion GBP. The split decision was in sharp contrast to the last two occasions when the decision to ease was unanimous.

    I think the upcoming retail sales report will serve as the catalyst for the breakout. If it comes in better-than-expected, we could see the pair rally strongly and break through major resistance levels.

    To recap, I plan on buying GBP/USD at 1.5690, SL at 1.5600, PT1 1.5780, PT2 1.6000, 1% risk. Risk disclosure.

  3. #3

    Default GBP/USD: Betting on an Ascending Triangle Break

    Is there anything ***ier than a breakout? A breakout setup, I mean! I spotted one on GBP/USD and I have to say I'm smitten. Today, I'm buying GBP/USD!

    Name:  gbpusd.jpg
Views: 648
Size:  33.0 KB

    Similar to the EUR/USD setup that Big Pippin pointed out in his Daily Chart Art, there's also an ascending triangle on GBP/USD in the hourly time frame. The pair has been making higher lows since the start of the week but hasn't been able to close above 1.5670.

    I've learned in the School of Pipsology that this is usually taken as a bullish pattern, so I'm going long! But I'm going to wait for the pair to make a new high first, just to be safe.

    My plan is to go long at 1.5690 (above Tuesday's high). If I get triggered, I'll take profit on half of my position at June's high around 1.5780 and let the remainder ride the trend. (Hopefully, it rallies back up to 1.6000!) I'll place my stop at 1.5600, below support at the rising trend line.

    The fundamentals also line up. In the most recent MPC Meeting Minutes, it was revealed that the vote to extend the central bank's asset purchase program was NOT unanimous.

    It was actually 7-2, with Spencer Dale and Ben Broadbent opting to keep the program at 325 billion GBP. The split decision was in sharp contrast to the last two occasions when the decision to ease was unanimous.

    I think the upcoming retail sales report will serve as the catalyst for the breakout. If it comes in better-than-expected, we could see the pair rally strongly and break through major resistance levels.

    To recap, I plan on buying GBP/USD at 1.5690, SL at 1.5600, PT1 1.5780, PT2 1.6000, 1% risk. Risk disclosure.

    XOXO,

    Huck

    Cross-posted from my blog, The Loonie Adventures of a Forex Noob

  4. #4
    My trade just got triggered at 1.5690!

  5. #5
    I just moved my stop from 1.5600 to 1.5620. Keeping it open over the weekend!

  6. #6
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    The long GBP/USD trade that I took last week closed as a loser!

    It seems that my prayers were heard and GBP/USD was able to trade past resistance around 1.5670, triggering my orders to go long at 1.5690.

    The U.K. retail sales report came in worse-than-expected but I chose to keep my trade open after finding out that bad weather weighed down consumer spending during the month. I adjusted my stop to 1.5620 from 1.5600 though. And boy am I happy that I did!

    Risk aversion brought about by concerns from the euro zone kicked in on Friday. Consequently, higher-yielding currencies, including the pound, traded lower and stopped out my trade.

    Long GBP/USD at 1.5690: stopped out at 1.5620, -1%/ -70 pips

  7. #7

    Default GBP/USD: Will the Rising Trend Line Hold?

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    I've been wrong a lot lately, so this time I'm gonna play it safe. My account has taken a hit with three straight losses. But hopefully, this time around, I'll be able to score a win

    My plan is to buy GBP/USD. If you zoom out to the 4-hour timeframe, you'll actually see the pair making higher lows. A rising trend line also becomes apparent when you connect them. I'm anticipating the pair to find some support at it, around 1.5500.

    But I don't want to get ahead of myself so I won't pull the trigger until I see reversal candlesticks materialize around the psychological handle. I have the candlestick cheat sheet from the School of Pipsology printed so I know what to look for!

    Another reason I'm very cautious on going long is because of the Bank of England (BOE)'s interest rate decision later. It's widely expected that the central bank will hold rates at 0.50% and hold off on any additional stimulus measures.

    If the BOE doesn't say anything bearish and drops clues that its quantitative easing program is working, the pound could rally. On the other hand, if the central bank shows concern on the economy, the pound could sell-off again. I think anything can happen really!

    In any case, if I do decide to buy the pair, I'll set my stop well below its most recent low at 1.5440. Should price go down to this level, my trade idea would already be invalidated as it would mean that support at the trend line failed. As for my profit target, I'll be aiming for the resistance area around 1.5720.

    To recap, my plan is to:

    Buy GBP/USD at 1.5500, SL at 1.5440, PT at 1.5720. Risk 1%. Risk disclosure.

    XOXO,

    Huck

  8. #8

    Default GBP/USD: Trade Update

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    As for my GBP/USD trade idea, I wasn't able to take it. Yeah, I missed the rally on the pair but I'm not beating up myself for it.

    I stuck to my plan. I had my eyes peeled for dojis and bullish marubozus but they didn't form so I didn't pull the trigger. On top of that, the BOE and ECB rate decisions also failed to boost the pound.

    There's no use in sulking about missing the boat on GBP/USD. After all, today's the start of a brand new week and I'm hopeful it will be better than the last.

    How did you do? Lemme know!

  9. #9

    Default Will resistance on GBP/USD break or will it hold?

    MPC meeting minutes and UK employment due for the GBP today. Are they gonna be game-changers for GBP/USD? Lemme know what you think!

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  10. #10
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Bergen, Norway
    Posts
    456
    I am also watching the 1.5720 level for a possible short. But we ll need a strong catalyst to push the pair that high today.

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