HUCKDATE: Thoughts on USD/CHF
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  1. #1

    Default HUCKDATE: Thoughts on USD/CHF

    Hi guys! I'll be re-posting all of my trade ideas on USD/CHF from my blog, The Loonie Adventures of a Forex Noob in this thread. Wee! I'm so excited to hear your thoughts about them.

    XOXO,

    Huck

  2. #2

    Default USD/CHF: Upward Trend About to End?

    I took this trade last week but since it's still valid, I decided to post it here too! (It was originally posted on my blog.)

    Since I'm a little dry on trade ideas this week, I'm going to try out a setup pointed by the great Big Pippin. I normally don't do counter-trend plays on the daily but this setup just looks too sweet.

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    As you can see, the pair is currently hovering around the .9800 major psychological level after forming a doji. Technically speaking it isn't a real doji since it has a body, but it does have long upper and lower shadows. This shows that traders were indecisive, which could mean that a reversal could happen soon.

    My bearish bias is confirmed by the bearish divergence that just appeared. The pair made "higher highs" but Stochastic failed to do the same.

    I'm ultimately aiming for .9500, but since the level is about 300 pips away, I'll be sure to manage my position carefully. This means I may add or reduce my position depending on the market environment. As for my stop, I'll be placing it 100 pips or so away, above the .9900 major psychological handle.

    On the fundamental side of things, I believe that the dollar's fate on the charts still pretty much rests on the prospect of QE3.

    Pip Diddy reported that the FOMC minutes hinted that the Fed is less inclined to pull the trigger on another round of quantitative easing. I thought that this should have spurred a wave of dollar-buying. However, a look at the daily chart of USDX reveals that the currency barely moved. Heck, it wasn't even able to close above its previous high.

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    I've read that despite the lack of urgency from FOMC members, QE3 is still not off the table. And so, I think that the dollar could get sold off when disappointing reports roll in as they could convince the Fed that more stimulus is needed.

    With that, I'll be sure to keep tabs on our forex calendar and be on my tippy toes for U.S. reports in the coming days!

    To recap, here's my plan:

    Short USD/CHF at market (.9809) , PT at .9500, SL at .9909. (Risk disclosure.)

    XOXO,

    Huck

  3. #3
    There really much anything to say or show on my USD/CHF trade. After I had entered, the pair surged higher 50-pips. On Friday, however, the price dipped again, bringing the pair right back to where I entered.

    Take note that I took the trade on the daily time frame, which means that I'll be holding this trade longer than usual. I could be hold on to this trades for weeks even! In any case, I will be sure to update ya'll if I make any trade adjustments.

    XOXO,

    Huck

  4. #4
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    While I give myself a pat on the back for managing my GBP/USD trade, I'm not ecstatic about how I handled the one I had on USD/CHF.

    I took this short USD/CHF trade a couple of weeks ago following the release of the FOMC minutes. Confident that risk appetite would continue to dictate market sentiment, I also kept it open for a few days when I saw that the pair had formed a tweezer top as well as a handful of dojis on the daily timeframe.

    But as I said, risk aversion came into play and boosted the dollar. I could've minimized my loss if I closed it on Friday when it made a new high. Drats!

    Short USD/CHF at .9809: stopped out at .9909, -1%/-100 pips

  5. #5

    Default USD/CHF: Potential Breakout Play?

    I noticed that the pair has just been ranging since yesterday. This has led me to think that USD/CHF may breakout soon. However, I don't see any potential catalyst on the calendar.

    What do you guys think?

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  6. #6
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    1
    Hi. Just wondering what your thoughts are on the divergence between price and the 14 period RSI on the one hour USD/CHF chart? Thanks!

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    6
    i sell at 0.8932

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 2015
    Posts
    104
    Support 1: 0.9477
    Support 2: 0.9440

    Resistance 1: 0.9568
    Resistance 2: 0.9622



    Current fall is near an end of wave around 0.9477 zone, a rally should then procede to above 0.9568. Fall below 0.9440 would cancel this scenario.

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