AceTraderForex April 7: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD[/B]
[B]07 Apr 2014[/B] [I]07:50GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD [/B]- 1.3715 ... Although cross-buying of euro lifted price fm Asian low at 1.3696 to 1.3720 in European morning, comments fm ECB's Nowotny capped intra-day gain there so far n the single currency eased to 1.3713.  

Bids are noted at 1.3710-00 with mixture of bids n stops located around 1.3680, whilst offers are placed at 1.3730-40 n then 1.3750 with stops emerging just abv 1.3770.

ECB’s Nowotny says ‘ECB following inflation closely, sees no immediate need to act; further ECB ratecut not ruled out; all possible steps to be considered, no sequencing; economic improvement should reduce deflation issues peronal reference for unconventional measures is sterngthening abs market.’

[B]09 Apr 2014[/B] [I]02:52GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD [/B]- 1.3789
The single currency pares yesterday’s gain in Asian morning after yesterday’s rally to 1.3812 in NY due to broad-based weakness in the greenback as many investors were closing their bets ahead of Fed’s March meeting minutes later today.

Bids from various accounts are placed at 1.3780-70 n then 1.3755/50 with stops emerging below 1.3730. On the upside, offers from profit-taking are seen around 1.3800 with cross-related selling interest noted at 1.3805/10 and then 1.3820.

Germany will release trade data for Feb at 06:00GMT with forecast of an increase of trade surplus to 17.5B from 15.0B in previous month. However, exports and imports are expected to be -0.5% m/m and 0.1% m/m vs previous readings of 2.2% and 4.1% respectively.

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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views [/B]
14 Apr 2014 [I]05:28GMT [/I]

[B]EUR/USD - 1.3854.. [/B]Whilst ECB President Draghi n fellow policymakers ratcheted up their rhetorics over the w/end on recent euro's strength, in a rare move for the usually soft-spoken Japan's FinMin Taro Aso, he told the IMF panel by drawing on Japan's own experience of a protracted period of deflation - directly warned the euro zone about the dangers of falling prices. 

Aso said “Based on our experience, once a deflationary mindset takes hold, it is easy to fall into a vicious cycle, whereby people start to postpone consumption n investment, leading to further deflationary pressures”. There are striking parallels between 1990s Japan n the euro zone’s plight now: weak bank lending, fragile economic growth, a rising exchange rate, n the central bank’s insistence that deflation is not on the horizon.

While Japan has been mired in deflation for most of the last 15 years, the price declines in the early years were so mild that the BoJ was slow to acknowledge deflation had set in. That is why Japanese policymakers warn against complacency even if, as Draghi points out, long-term inflation expectations in the euro area appear to remain “well-anchored.”

German FinMin Schaeuble says ‘Ukraine is the greatest geo-political risk facing the economy by a great margin; further euro strengthening could have negative effect on economy; says Draghi made a convincing case at IMF meeting that Europe’s low inflation rates hold no deflation fears; no signs at all of deflation spiral in Europe.’

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD[/B]

[B]23 Apr 2014[/B] [I]08:00GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD - 1.3824[/B]... Eurozone Apr manufacturing PMI came in at 53.3, better than the forecast of 53.0. Apr Service PMI came in at 54.0, stronger than the forecast of 52.5.

The single currency found renewed buying at 1.3799 in Asian morning n strengthened to 1.3819 n rose briefly to 1.3837 at European open, however, the release of weaker-than-expected French manf. PMI pressured the pair lower n price retreated to 1.3799 again. Euro found support there after the release of upbeat German manf. PMI n price recovered to 1.3820.

Offers are now seen at 1.3830/40 n more abv at 1.3850/60 with stops building up abv there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.3785/90.

German Apr Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.2, better than the forecast of 53.8. Service PMI came in at 55.0, stronger than the foreacst of 53.3.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD, USD/JPY [/B]
[B]24 Apr 2014 [/B] [I]08:32GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD - 1.3836.[/B].. The single currency traded with a firm bias in Asia today n despite a brief but sharp move lower to 1.3812 at European open on the release of weak French data, price found renewed buying there and rose to an intra-day high at 1.3841 after the release of better-than-expected German IFO business climate. 

Bids are now seen at 1.3815/20 n more below at 1.3790/00 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.3860/65.

Germany IFO business climate n expectations came in better-than-expected at 111.2 n 107.3 vs forecasts of 110.4 n 105.8 respectively.

IFO economist Wohlrabe says ‘Ukraine crisis is currently having no effect on German economy but is a background factor; positive fundamental mood prevails, Germany is in upturn.’

[B]24 Apr 2014[/B] [I]08:31GMT[/I]

[B]   USD/JPY - 102.42[/B]... Japan EconMin Akira Amari says 'U.S. n Japan made progress in trade talks, but problems remain; Japan will continue trade talks with U.S.; cannot resolve remaining issues in U.S. trade talks in short period of time.'

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views [/B]

[B]28 Apr 2014[/B] [I]09:33GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD - 1.3872..[/B].  German gov't spokesman says 'Russia shud use its influence on separatists in Ukraine to ensure OSCE observers are released.'

The single currency found renewed buying at 1.3818 at European open n jumped to 1.3876 in early European morning in tandem with cable after tripping stops at 1.3850/55. Bids are now raised to 1.3855/60 n more below at 1.3840/50 with stops building up below there.

Mkt focus is now on the release of EU inflation figures later this week, as that wud give some indication on the possibility of ECB deploying unconventional measures to manage the Eurozone.

ECB's Constancio says 'have no target in mind for April inflation data; it is not just one or two numbers that matter but medium-term outlook; we are not entirely out of the danger zone, it is too soon to declare the crisis over; Eurozone challenges include a low inflation period that threatens to aggravate debt overhand besetting some gov'ts; there are several policy instruments available, we will act if we see we need to.'

ECB’s Noyer says ‘euro strength is a powerful deflationary factor; ECB willing to use unconventional measures if needed; Hollande’s plan to cut charges, spending unavoidable.’

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views[/B]

[B]30 Apr 2014[/B] [I]01:58GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD - 1.3809[/B] ... The single currency remains under pressure in Asia today after yesterday's sell off from 1.3879 to 1.3806 due to the release of 'soft' Germany's inflation data. Selling interest is seen at 1.3820-30 n more at 1.3840-50. On the downside, some stops are reported below 1.3800, 1.3790 n 1.3785. 

Further sideways trading is expected until European open as market players are awaiting the release of German retail sales data at 06:00GMT. Germany and euro zone will release its unemployment rate at 07:00GMT n estimated CPI at 09:00GMT respectively.

[B]30 Apr 2014[/B] [I]01:44GMT [/I]
[B]USD/JPY - 102.50[/B] … Despite initial firmness to 102.66 at Tokyo open on improved risk appetite due to the rise in Nikkei, following the rally in global stock markets on Tuesday. Selling interest below yesterday’s high at 102.79 capped dlr’s upside. The pair retreated to 102.48 in Asian morning, however, trading is relatively thin as investors are waiting for the BOJ rate decision, to be released at around 3:00-3:30GMT.

Some market players are expecting the BOJ to deliver further “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing” (QQE) on Wednesday, in the form of a further 10 trillion yen increase in the monetary base, biased towards riskier assets.

Besides, BOJ Governor Kuroda is due to hold a post-meeting news conference at 06:30GMT.

Orders book shows some offers are tipped at 102.70 with stops seen above 102.80 but mixture of offers n stops is tipped at 102.95/00. On the downside, some bids are located at 102.30/35 n 102.05/10 with stops seen below 102.00 n 101.90

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views [/B]

[B]05 May 2014[/B]
President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas who is a voting member of the FOMC, said on the Fox News program Sun the U.S. economy is “moving in the right direction” and “getting stronger” as private-sector payrolls increase.

Fisher added “the private sector is beginning to hire,” and “we’d like to see that continue and, in fact, increase.”

On Fed QE, Fisher then said “I personally expect us to end that program in October.” He then said “And then we have to see how the economy is doing, including these broader measures of unemployment, n where we stand, before we can talk about how we might move the short-term rate.”

Despite euro’s brief drop to 1.3812 after Fri’s release of upbeat US jobs report, the single currency rebounded strongly to 1.3881 due to dlr’s broad-based weakness on renewed tensions in Ukraine. Euro rose further to 1.3889/90 in Asian morning today b4 retreating to 1.3865. Some bids are reported at 1.3860-50 n more at 1.3835/40 with stops only seen below 1.3810. On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.3890-00 with stops seen abv Apr’s high at 1.3906.

Trading is likely to be thin today as Japan and U.K are closed for holiday.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views[/B]

[B]06 May 2014[/B] [I]02:47GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD - 1.3880.[/B]. The European Commission (EC) gave a downbeat assessment of the eurozone in its spring forecast on Mon n traders’ reaction after reading the report wud be selling the eur/gbp cross.

Bloomberg reported The European Commission predicted on Mon low inflation will remain a threat to euro-area expansion for at least the next 2 years as it trimmed its economic-growth forecast n warned of the impact of tensions with Russia.

The euro zone’s inflation rate will be 0.8% this year n 1.2% in 2015, both lower than forecast in Feb n well below the ECB’s target of just below 2%. EZ GDP is projected to rise 1.7% in 2015, compared with the commission’s previous forecast of 1.8%.

Commission VP Siim Kallas told reporters in Brussels “Price pressures are expected to remain subdued as we expect energy prices to continue to decline n as demand is only gradually firming n unemployment is still high.” He added "When we consider what are the main risks for the European economy at this stage, the one main risk is clearly the external tensions n uncertainty which surrounds us, especially related to the crisis in Ukraine.

[I]02:22GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.3877 … The single currency traded inside a narrow range of 1.3865-1.3890 on Monday due to holidays in Japan and Britain. Trading is expected to be thin also in Asia today until European open as Italy, France, Germany n eurozone will release their services PMI at 07:45GMT, 07:50GMT, 07:55GMT n 08:00GMT respectively.

Market players shud pay attention to the release of eurozone retail sales data at 09:00GMT. The retail sales is expected to decrease by 0.6% m/m in March versus the previous reading of 0.4% m/m increase.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views[/B]

[B]06 May 2014[/B] [I]08:06GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - 1.3915
The single currency found renewed buying interest at 1.3875 at European open n jumped in early European morning to 1.3931 on earlier news of Russia deploying submarines near Crimea together with the release of upbeat services PMI fm Eurozone.

Bids are now seen at 1.3910/15 n more below at 1.3890/00 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.3940/45.

Italy n France services PMI came in better-than-expected at 51.1n 50.4 vs forecasts 50.2 n 50.3 respectively.

Russian Defence Minister says ‘new submarines, ships to be deployed by Crimea-based black sea fleet this year.’

News from RIA news agency, Russian deputy foreign minister says Russia, U.S. will abide by strategic arms reduction treaty; says Ukraine crisis will not affect it.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

14 May 2014 [/B] [I]02:24GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD - 1.3707[/B]

Despite staging a brief bounce to 1.3771 in European morning yesterday, the single currency tumbled after the release of much weaker-than-expected German n eurozone ZEW current expectations data, price nose-dived to 1.3700 b4 staging a minor recovery to 1.3730 in NY due to dlr’s weakness on much weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales, however, selling interest emerged there n knocked price lower to a fresh 1-month trough at 1.3689 in NY afternoon b4 recovering to 1.3709 in Asian morning today.

Some offers are now reported at 1.3725-30 n more at 1.3745 whilst some bids are located at 1.3700 n 1.3695 with stops seen below 1.3689 but demand is noted at 1.3670/75.

Germany will release its CPI data at 06:00GMT whilst eurozone will release its industrial production figure at 09:00GMT. Besides, ECB’s Mersch n ECB’s Weidmann will speak in Berlin at 07:30GMT n 14:30GMT respectively.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views [/B]

[B]19 May 2014[/B] [I]01:06GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - 1.3701
A piece of important w/end news worth noting. Reuters, together with our media reported ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet will recommend that the bank cut its main refinancing rate to a record low 0.15 percent from 0.25 percent at its policy meeting on Jun 5, according to the German magazine Der Spiegel.

Praet is also expected to recommend the introduction of a negative rate on bank deposits for the first time, Der Spiegel reported on Sun, without citing a source.

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- 101.55
Japanese gov’t. official says : machinery orders rise at fastest pace since comparable data available fm fiscal year 2005.
Japan’s Mar monthly & year-on-year machinery order surged to 19.1% n 16.1% respectively, way abv market consensus of 6.0% & 4.2% respectively, however, dlr has shown muted reaction to the data.

The ECB declined to comment. Last week Reuters reported that the ECB was preparing a package of policy options for its June meeting, including cuts in all interest rates.

Five people familiar with the measures being prepared described plans involving a potential rate cut, including the ECB’s deposit rate going negative for the first time, along with measures targeting small n mid-size companies.