AceTraderForex Apr 14: Weekly Technical Outlook on Major – EUR/USD

Trading Discussion Currencies
1

WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
Last Update At 14 Apr 2014 00:17GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
1.3875

55 HR EMA
1.3864

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Falling

13 HR RSI
34

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias

Resistance
1.3948 - Mar 17 high
1.3906 - Last Fri’s high
1.3864 - Last Fri’s low, now res

Support
1.3838 - Today’s low in NZ
1.3780 - Last Wed’s low
1.3748 - Last Mon’s high

. EUR/USD - 1.3850… Euro climbed strongly last week due to dlr’s broad-based weakness, price rose for 5 consecutive days fm Mon’s 1.3696 low to 1.3906 on Fri b4 retreating to 1.3864 on profit-taking. Euro gapped-down to 1.3838 in NZ Mon after w/end euro-bearish comments fm ECB President Draghi b4 stabilising.

. Looking at the bigger picture, last week’s breach of pivotal res at
1.3877 (Mar 24 high) to 1.3906 confirms early correction fm Mar 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3967 has ended at 1.3672 (Apr 4 low) n as daily oscillators are currently rising, suggesting price is en route to re-test said 2014 top. A daily close abv 1.3967 wud confirm MT uptrend fm 1.2042 (Jul 2012) has resumed n further gain to ‘psychological’ res at 1.4000 wud follow, break wud extend gain twd 1.4052 (the 50% projection of MT intermediate rise fm 1.2745-1.3894 measured fm 1.3477) but reckon 1.4100 wud hold n yield retreat later this month.

. Today, as the retreat fm Fri’s high of 1.3906 to 1.3838 (NZ) suggests
near term upmove fm 1.3672 has made a temporary top, selling on recovery for a retracement twd 1.3780 is cautiously favoured but 1.3761 (61.8% r) shud contain weakness n bring rebound later. Only abv 1.3906 wud extend gain twd 1.3948.

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3

WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
Last Update At 15 Jun 2014 23:25GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Down

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
1.3541

55 HR EMA
1.3546

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Falling

13 HR RSI
44

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias

Resistance
1.3620 - Jun 06 low (now res)
1.3602 - Last Tue’s high
1.3579 - Last Fri’s high

Support
1.3512 - Last Thur’s low
1.3503 - Hyn 05 4-month low
1.3477 - Feb 3 low

. EUR/USD - 1.3533… Despite rallying fm a near 4-month low of 1.3503 to 1.3677 in the previous week, euro came under renewed broad-based selling at the start of the week n fell back to 1.3512, however, profit-taking abv 1.3503 lifted price n euro recovered to 1.3579 on Fri b4 retreating to 1.3521 in NY.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, euro’s weakness to 1.3512 strongly suggests the correction fm 1.3503 has ended at 1.3677 n as long as this reaction high holds, bearishness remains for decline fm May’s 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 to retrace MT uptrend to resume n yield subsequent weakness to 1.3477 (Feb 03 low). Having said that, as prominent ‘bullish convergences’ wud appear on the hourly oscillators on such a move, sharp fall below there is unlikely to be seen this week n reckon 1.3445, this is the ‘dynamic’ 61.8% r of intermediate rise of 1.3105-1.3995, wud hold n bring a much-needed correction.

. Today, although euro may come under pressure on Mon initially, unless euro bears are able to take out 1.3503 sup, odds still favour further choppy sideways move abv there b4 prospect of a downside break later. Below 1.3503 wud encourage for weakness twd next daily obj. at 1.3477 (Feb low).

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