AceTraderForex Apr 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GPB/USD

Trading Discussion Currencies
1

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GPB/USD[/B]

[B]16 Apr 2014[/B] [I]02:21GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD - 1.6721.. [/B]We mentioned in y'day's update short-term specs sold the pound in Asia in anticipation of a soft U.K. inflation number, European traders did the same when they entered the market n when CPI came out at a 4-year low of 1.6% as per market consensus, cable staged a ferocious rebound fm 1.6657 (Reuters) to as high as 1.6731 on broad-based short-covering/profit-taking (depending where you had ended there trade !), pric later ratcheted higher to session high of 1.6749 b4 retreating.

The intra-day sideways move despite y’day’s strg rebound suggests Asian players are respecting the Tue’s high print as offers were reported at 1.6745/55 with stops abv there, however, more selling interest is noted at 1.6780/90. On the downside, some bids are reported at 1.6710-00 n more below, so range trading is expected ahead of another batch of U.K. jobs data.

Pay attention to U.K. jobless claims, employment change & the unemployment rate at 08:30GMT, the employment change data is probably the more important figure to watch, street forecast is looking for an increase of 90k vs previous reading of 105k, if the increase falls short of expectation, then expect (pun intended) another round of sterling bashing to come in.

2

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD[/B]

[B]28 Apr 2014[/B] [I]06:34GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD - 1.6807.[/B]. Cable swung fm early loss to slight gain at European open. Despite falling in tandem with eur/usd initially at Asian open to 1.6777 (Reuters), short-covering quickly lifted the pound n early European birds were spotted buying sterling vs usd, eur & yen as w/end FT news of Pfizer's public offer for U.K. AstraZeneca came back to the forefront - just like when the news first broke last Tue (pushing cable fm 1.6785 to 1.6839).

Although cable has basically risen on this speculative news, reported heavy offers at 1.6835/45 need to be absorbed for the pound to make a new print on 2014 high. For now, trading fm long side is the way to go with bids now touted at 1.6800-1.6790 n more below with stops below 1.6760.

28 Apr 2014 [I]02:51GMT[/I]
GBP/USD - 1.6790… Cable pares intra-day loss on short covering ahead of Tokyo lunch after intra-day euro-led retreat fm 1.6807 (NZ) to 1.6777 (Reuters) after tripping stops below Fri’s low at 1.6790. Traders reported selling by st specs at Asian open on stop hunting as despite Fri’s brief jump to session high of 1.6834 after stronger-than-expected U.K. retail sales, report of lumpy offers at 1.6835/40 spooked st buyers n the pound later ratcheted lower to 1.6795 in NY afternoon. The lack of follow-though selling below 1.6790 suggests intra-day selling is done as traders are aware of near term bids abv last week low at 1.6762.

Range trading with mild upside bias is seen until European open n w/end FT news of U.S. phaurmaceutical giant Pfizer could make a public bid to purchase U.K. durgmaker AstraZeneca, buying cable on dips is preferred. No major U.K. data is due out today although we have Lloyds Bank Business Confidence Barometer for Apr at 08:30GMT, the index hit an all-time high of 66 in Feb but retreated to 44 in Mar. Traders are keeping their powder dry ahead of release of Tue’s key U.K. preliminary Q1 GDP.

3

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD [/B]

29 Apr 2014 [I]06:50GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD - 1.6818.[/B]..  BoE Governor Mark Carney says 'recovery broadening; BoE officials prudently optimistic on outlook; it's important we see longer term growth; consistent growth requires substantial wage rises; early signs are that recovery is sustainable; BoE interest rate rises will be gradual, limited.'

29 Apr 2014 [I] 02:49GMT [/I]
GBP/USD - 1.6814… Cable moves narrowly in subdued Asian trading as Asian traders are on the sideline after seeing the pound pulling back rather sharply fm a fresh 4-1/2 year peak of 1.6858 to 1.6801 in NY session Mon. As mentioned in y’day’s update, short-term specs bot sterling broadly at European open on news of a mega M&A deal, however, as many had pointed out earlier, market is long on cable, longs quickly took profit when no strg follow-through buying materialised n the release of upbeat U.S. pending sales triggered further long liquidation in NY.

Expect cable to trade abv 1.6801 until European open n market may well test the upside ahead of the release of the blockbuster advanced U.K. Q1 GDP, street forecast is calling for an annual growth of 3.2% vs prev. reading of 2.7%. Even if the data comes in as per expectation, as cable is now a crowded trade, more profit-taking offers shud limit the pound’s upside today n downside risk seems to weigh on cable more. For now, bids are noted at 1.6805/00 n more below with fairly large stops touted below 1.6760. On the upside, initial offers are reported at 1.6840/50 n more abv with a mixture of stops n offers at 1.6860/65.

4

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD[/B]

02 May 2014 [I]06:45GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD - 1.6887[/B].. Another piece of breaking news which may 'trigger' another bout of st speculative buying of cable.   
    U.K. drug maker AstraZeneca says board will review Pfizer offer. A spokeswoman for the company said today AstraZeneca board will be reviewing a sweetened takeover offer fm Pfizer but the company has no further comment at this stage.

Sterling was the ‘star currency’ in y’day’s holiday-thinned trading. Despite initial quiet start due to closure of many major centres for Labour Day holiday, the pound sprang to life at European open n jumped to a near 5-year peak of 1.6921 after U.K. Apr manufacturing PMI beat forecast, however, the bullish euphoria quickly faded when long liquidation emerged, knocking the pound to 1.6876 in NY morning.
Cable has moved narrowly with a soft bias as Asian traders are on the sideline ahead of a slew of eco. data in Europe. We have several eurozone manufacturing PMIs ahead of the release of U.K. Apr construction PMI at 08:30GMT (street forecast is calling for 62.5 vs prev. reading at 62.5) n not to mention the world’s most important data, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data at 12:30GMT. Initial bids are noted at 1.6870-60 with some stops touted below 1.6850, on the upside, offers are reported at 1.6910/20 n more abv, suggesting near term range trading wud continue but buying cable on dips is till the preferred strategy after clocking up 6 consecutive days of winning streak on Thur.

5

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views[/B]

[B]13 May 2014[/B] [I]04:47GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD - 1.6878[/B]
Sterling traders are keeping their powder dry ahead of Wed’s key event when BoE releases its Inflation Report. U.K. Telegraph reported BoE may need to raise interest rates b4 2015 May’s general election, 6 months earlier than predicted, amid fears of a housing bubble (London house prices have risen 25% on their 2008 high, fueling speculation of a bubble).

According to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), this could force the BoE to raise interest rates in the first 3 months of next year, before the general election, as opposed to the third quarter previously forecast.
This has been echoed by economists, who claim that Bank governor Mark Carney will confirm interest rises on Wed, when the bank lifts its growth forecasts as part of its scheduled inflation report.

While the growth is encouraging, the CBI said that a housing bubble could still derail the recovery. “We have to remain alert to the risks posed by unsustainable house price inflation,” said CBI director-general John Cridland. He added, “Housing has come back under the spotlight as annual house price inflation figures have reached double digit figures on some measures.”

Buying cable looks a wee bit tricky as last week’s sharp retreat fm a fresh near 5-year peak of 1.6996 to 1.6832 signals a temporary top is in place, however, buying sterling vs the euro looks like a good bet after eur/gbp touched a near 16-month trough of 0.8143 y’day.

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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

15 May 2014[/B] [I]02:56GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD - 1.6772[/B]
Cable languishes near a 4-week low of 1.6753 hit yesterday. Sterling came under very heavy broad-based selling after U.K. jobs data came in below market consensus, intra-day decline accelerated when BoE Governor Mark Carney disappointed sterling bulls by brushing off market expectation of bringing forward U.K. rate hike any time soon.
As market had already set the bar very high for hawkish comments from Carney, his mildly dovish tone at the BoE Inflation Report press conference sent the pound tumbling, cable tanked to 1.6759 after his remarks and despite a brief short-covering bounce to 1.6812, renewed selling pressured price to session low of 1.6753 in NY morning.

Traders reported ‘heavy’ volume in yesterday’s session, suggesting long liquidation was the theme on Wed n last Fri CFTC report showed there are still a lot of stale-long positions out there as cable has been a ‘crowded’ trade in recent weeks, so selling on intra-day recovery is the way to go.
Initial offers are noted at 1.6780/90 n more at 1.6800/10 with some stops reported abv 1.6820. On the downside, a mixture of bids n stops is touted at 1.6750/45. No U.K. economic data is due out today n tomorrow, so stop hunting will be the near term favourite pastime activities of the sterling bears.

7

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

21 May 2014 08:37GMT

GBP/USD - 1.6913... BoE releases its meeting minutes, which state 'MPC voted 9-0 to keep rates unchanged; for some MPC members, decision on whether to raise rates becoming more balanced; all members agree need to see more evidence of slack reducing before raising rates; considerable uncertainty n range of views about BoE's 1-1.5% of GDP estimate of slack; cud be argued that the more gradual the intended rise in rates, the earlier BoE needs to start; but premature rise in rates cud also risk a substantial cost in lost output; raising rates slowly carries greater risk of housing mkt imbalances, but mitigating this is FPC role; sterling above top of post-crisis range, mkt contacts note due to stronger growth in UK than elsewhere; nearly all sterling appreciation likely to be passed into lower prices, but firms may instead increase profit margins.'

Cable edges higher ahead of Asian lunch break in tandem with eur/usd. Sterling was bot broadly at European open on Tue as st specs were looking for U.K. Apr inflation data to show a small increase. Although cable briefly jumped to 1.6870 (Reuters) after CPI ticked higher abv prev. reading of 1.6% to 1.8% (consensus was 1.7%), however, profit-taking quickly emerged, price retreated to 1.6822 at NY open n ratcheted higher to 1.6849 b4 moving narrowly in NY afternoon.

Although Asian traders are on the sideline as market keenly awaits the release of BoE MPC minutes n the Apr retail sales, the retail sales data are expected to show strg growth (MoM ex-auto forecast is 0.5% n YoY ex-auto is 5.4% vs prev. readings of -0.4% %& 4.2% resp.), so cable is likely to maintain a biddish tone into the figure n we may well see a repeat of y’day’s price action i.e briefly higher n then coming off after the release.
Bids are noted at 1.6830-20 n more below with stops reported below 1.6800. Offers are tipped at 1.6860/70 n more abv with some stops touted abv 1.6900.

8

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

26 Jun 2014[/B] 09:31GMT

GBP/USD - Cable briefly rose to intra-day high of 1.7030 after the BoE Financial Stability Report were released.

Statement from BoE Financial Stability Report, quote:

  1. " to set from october loan to income ratio at 4.5 for 85 pct of new mortgages".
  2. “new cap would apply to lenders who grant more than 100 mln stg of home loans a year”.
  3. “home loans granted from today but completed from october will count towards total volume for setting planned cap”.
  4. “toughens affordability tests for new home loans from thursday by taking into account potentially higher interest rates”.
  5. “most lenders already operate within the lti cap”.
  6. “does not believe that household indebtedness poses an immediate threat to stability, measures aimed to insure against this risk”.
  7. “eight top uk lenders must maintain core equity ratio of 7 pct, leverage
    ratio of 3 pct”.
  8. “sets first formal countercyclical capital buffer for banks at 0 pct”.

Earlier, BoE’s Carney begins his news conference n says, quote:
‘the biggest risk to the UK economy relate to the housing mkt;
it is not the FPCI’s role to control house prices;
the FPC is concerned that a marked loosening in underwriting standards n increase in household debt cud pose major risk;
today’s measures shud not constrain current housing activity, actions will bite if sustained momentum in housing mkt;
these measures will prevent slide into riskier lending, higher indebtedness; monetary policy does not need to be diverted to address a sector-specific risk in the housing mkt;
today’s actions don’t affect the central outlook for the economy;
today’s actions are less likely to have implications for monetary policy path, which anticipates limited n gradual rate rises;
we expect the momentum in the housking mkt to continue for the next year or so;
this is the limit of our tolerance on the housing mkt, if we need to recalibrate, we will.’

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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

GBP/USD [/B]- .. Sterling's stellar performance in 2014 is backed up by positive fundamentals as U.K. growth is the strongest in the G7 countries n recent upbeat eco. data adds to market speculation of a first hike in Britain's interest rate sooner rather than later.

The Telegraph reported on Tuesday U.K. manufacturing sector expanded for a 16th consecutive month amid swollen order books n increased production. Strong demand for orders both at home and abroad also meant manufacturers took on staff at their quickest pace since March 2011.

Survey compilers Markit’s senior economist Rob Dobson said “UK manufacturing continued to flourish in Jun, rounding off one of the best quarters for the sector over the past two decades.” He added “With levels of production surging higher, and order books swollen by a further upswing in demand from both domestic and overseas clients, job creation accelerated to its highest for over 3 years.”

The pound eases in Asia in tandem with intra-day retreat in eur/usd after yesterday’s rally to a fresh 5-1/2 year peak of 1.7167. The pound jumped from 1.7102 to 1.7136 after U.K. mfg PMI beat estimate n climbed to 57.5 vs forecast of 56.8, st specs were reported buying cable on the data, price later rose to session high of 1.7167 near NY midday b4 pulling back on profit-taking.

Looks like the usual range trading in Asia would continue b4 sterling’s recent strong ascent resumes as the trend is your trend. Initial bids are noted at 1.7140-30 n more below with stops reported below yesterday’s low at 1.7096.
On the upside, a mixture of selling interest n stops is touted at 1.7465/70. Pay attention to U.K. construction PMI, forecast for Jun is 59.5 vs previous reading of 60.0, although this is the least of the important 3 PMIs, if actual is higher than street estimate, this will give sterling bulls another reason to take the pound higher.

10

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

03 Jul 2014[/B] [I]08:30GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- .. U.K. services PMI for June came in at 57.7, below street forecast of 58.3 (previous reading was 58.6), cable slipped after the data to 1.7134 after tripping light stops below 1.7140.

Current weakness suggests a long-overdue correction of recent strong uptrend has taken place, stops below 1.7130 are now in focus, however, as mentioned in previous, fairly large stops are reported below 1.7095, so until the latter stop lvl is tripped, do not get overly bearish on the pound. For now, offers have been lowered to 1.7150/60 n more above with stops above yesterday’s fresh 5-1/2 year peak at 1.7180.

Breaking news from Reuters earlier, Bank of England’s Deputy Gov Sir Jon Cunliffe says biggest risk to the UK economy is house prices rising faster than income; we don’t forecast or set out when interest rates will next change, we make decision on basis of information coming in; we have said we are looking at the amount of spare capacity when deciding on monetary tightening; when interest rates start to go up, the pace is going to be gentler than in past and it will be to a lower level.

Jon Cunliffe will deliver a speech at the International Festival for Business conference at 11:00GMT, Liverpool today.

11

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

16 Jul 2014[/B] [I]02:42GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- .. BoE Governor Mark Carney told lawmakers at a hearing in Britain's parliament on Tue said the central bank's forward guidance policy aimed to signal how interest rates might change over the medium term, not pinpoint the timing of a first hike.

He said “We don’t know exactly when the rate cycle is going to start. It will be driven by the data. We do expect markets to react to that data.” When asked about comments he made last month that a first rate hike might come sooner than markets were thinking, Carney said he wanted to make investors think about the chance of an early increase in borrowing costs as U.K.'s economy recovered.
“We were concerned that markets were not reacting to data, a fairly long run of data, that was as good as expected, if not slightly better.” Carney added "The only guidance that the new MPC is now giving is around the expected medium-term path of interest rates, not the timing of the first rate rise.

16 Jul 2014 [I]02:42GMT [/I]

Cable continued its volatile moves in Tuesday’s choppy session. Although renewed cross-selling of sterling vs euro knocked price lower at European open, stops below previous day’s 1.7070 low were tripped n cable hit a fresh 2-week low of 1.7059 ahead of key U.K. inflation data but when CPI surprised to the upside, sterling bears dived for covers n lifted cable to 1.7147, price continued to ratchet higher n touched a fresh near 6-year peak of 1.7192 immediately after Yellen’s dovish remarks but only to fall to 1.7138 on long liquidation due to usd’s broad-based strength.

Although euro’s intra-day weakness in Asia has pressured cable, some bids are touted at 1.7130-20 are likely to contained downside. On the upside, initial offers are tipped at 1.7150/60 n more abv, suggesting range trading wud continue until release of key U.K. jobs data at 08:30GMT.

[B]Data to be released on Wednesday: [/B]

New Zealand CPI, China GDP, retail sales, industrial output, Italy trade balance, UK ILO unemployment, claimant count, Swiss ZEW sentiment, U.S. PPI, core PPI, net L-T flows, capacity utilization, industrial output, NAHB housing market index, Fed beige book and Canada BoC rate decision.

12

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

23 Jul 2014[/B] [I]08:43GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD -[/B] .... Despite a brief spike up to 1.7095 after the release of BoE minutes, the British pound swiftly pared its gains n dropped to 1.7063 as the minutes were deemed as less hawkish than expected. BoE minutes showed that the MPC committee is still looking at the pros n cons for an early rate rise n that they were worried about hurting the country's economic recovery.

Offers are now seen at 1.7080/90 n more above at 1.7100/05 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.7040/45, suggesting selling cable on intra-day recovery is still favored.

BoE releases its minutes, Quote:
‘MPC have pre-set view on timing of a rate rise, will depend on data;
some MPC members feel decision on rate rise had become more balanced over past few months than earlier in the year;
growth generally looking more assured but tentative indications of slight slowdown forecast for H2;
one view was that risk of small rate rise derailing economy had receded, cud help assess response of economy;
size of labor market slack uncertain so pace at which it is used may be more relevant;
other view was that unexpected rate rise cud have outsize impact as global growth grows;
little indication of inflationary pressures building;
different MPC members put different weights on these interpretations;
expect Q2 GDP growth of 0.9% b4 slowing modestly in Q3 n Q4;
response of mkts to geopolitical events n economic risks surprisingly low.’

13

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

25 Jul 2014[/B] [I]02:43GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- ... Cable gains respite in subdued Asian trading after tanking to a 4-week trough of 1.6967 on Thur as a tepid 0.1% m/m growth in Jun retails sales (vs forecast of 03% increase) triggered broad-based selling of sterling vs usd n eur.

As retail sales account for just under 6% of U.K. economic output, market is keenly awaiting the release of the 1st reading of Britain’s Q2 GDP. Street forecast is looking for a q/q growth of 0.8% & an annual expansion of 3.1%. If actual quarterly figure disappoints, then recent expectation of the start of a rate hike near year-end wud be put in the back burner. If the reading is higher than forecast, then one can expect a short-covering rally back twd 1.7085/95.

Until then, offers are noted at 1.7000/10 n more abv, initial bids are reported at 1.6970-60 with more stops touted below 1.6950.

25 Jul 2014 02:21GMT

U.K. Telegraph :
The IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2014 from 3.7% to 3.4% in the latest update to its World Economic Outlook, warning that the advanced economies are still being weighed on by high levels of debt.

Ultra-low interest rates around the world are fuelling financial bubbles n pushing investors into overvalued assets, the IMF has warned in a marked shift of policy.

Olivier Blanchard, the IMF?s chief economist, said the fund is now watching financial markets “like a hawk” but said the world economy is still too fragile to withstand the introduction of tighter monetary policy. “The first line of defence should be macro-prudential tools; slowing down the housing market for example. The recovery is not very strong and really needs to be nurtured,” he said. The report also said “Global growth could be weaker for longer, monetary policy should thus remain accommodative in all major advanced economies.”

[B]Friday[/B] will see the release of Japan National CPI, Tokyo CPI, Germany Gfk consumer confidence, Ifo current conditions, expectations, business climate, Italy unemployment, UK GDP and U.S. durable goods on Friday.

14

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

31 Jul 2014 [/B] [I]06:59GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - .... The British pound relinquished intra-day gain made in Asia after meeting renewed selling at 1.6927 shortly ahead of European open.

Despite edging higher from 1.6906 (Aust.) to 1.6927 on steady short-covering, sellers emerged after U.K. Nationwide house prices came in lower then consensus. Jul m/m was 0.1% vs forecast of 0.5%, previous month’s reading was 1.0%.

Judging from current weakness in early European trading, looks like st specs are testing cable’s downside n stops below yesterday’s 6-week low at 1.6890 are now in focus. Offers remained at 1.6925/30 with some stops above there, suggesting selling the pound is the way to go due to dlr’s broad-based strength in European morning…

31 Jul 2014 [I]06:03GMT[/I]
GBP/USD -… U.K. Jul house prices +0.1% m/m vs Jun +1.0% n +10.6% y/y vs 11.8% in Jun.

15

[B]Daily Market Moving New and Views

04 Aug 2014[/B] [I]03:20GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- ... For those news browsers in quiet Asian session, U.K. Telegraph reported Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London is to back a report that claims leaving the EU would be better than staying if PM David Cameron fails to negotiate reforms.

The report estimates that the UK leaving the EU wud be far fm catastrophic for the capital, n better than staying if Britain’s position in the organisation is not renegotiated.

The Mayor is on Wed set to outline an eight-point plan for reform of the EU, setting out the way in which the UK should renegotiate its place in the union. He will outline the points in a speech at Bloomberg’s London offices, focusing on the UK’s future relationship with Europe. At next May’s general election, Europe is likely to be a crucial battle ground.

Earlier the pound languishes near Fri’s fresh 6-week low of 1.6812 in subdued Asian trading on Mon. Despite staging a brief short-covering rebound to 1.6862 after U.S. Jul payrolls’ increase was below market forecast n unemployment increased by 0.1%, sellers quickly emerged n cable later ratcheted lower back to 1.6818 near NY close.

The narrow movement in Asia is expected to continue until release of U.K. Jun construction PMI. Cable rec’d renewed bashing on Fri after U.K. mfg PMI came in well below the lowest forecast n fell to 55.4 fm 57.2 in June (its lowest level since July 2013). If today’s construction PMI is below market consensus, then expect another round of selling to emerge. Even if the reading beats forecast, sterling bears will continue to sell the pound on intra-day rally. Bids are noted at 1.6815/05 with stops reported below 1.6800, on the upside, offers are tipped at 1.6850/60 n more abv with stops touted above 1.6990/95.

16

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

GBP/USD[/B] - .... Although Britons are finding EU goods & services cheaper this month as compared to a year ago when they take their vacation in Europe in this holiday Aug month after eur/gbp cross slid to a near 2-year low of 0.7874 in Jul, the flip side of this is the widening of Britain's trade gap esp vs the EU.

The U.K. Telegraph reported why the eurozone’s woes could hurt Britain. Growth in EU ground to a halt in the 2nd quarter of the year. This was mostly due to weaker-than-expected figures from the eurozone’s economic heavyweights.
Germany’s economy shrank by 0.2% in the quarter, while France’s flatlined. At the same time, the bloc is on the cusp of a deflationary spiral.
Prices are falling in Portugal, Greece n Spain, while Italy isn’t far behind.

Because the EU is still Britain’s single biggest overseas market, so an economic standstill in the eurozone will hit UK exports hard.
MPC member David Miles summed it up on Thur when he said British exports to the EU are “dead in the water”.

Britain’s overseas investments are also concentrated in the EU, so poor performing EU firms will hit the UK’s return on foreign investment hard, too. Both of these factors mean further pain for the U.K.?s current account deficit, which already stands near a record high at 4.4% of GDP.

17

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

27 Aug 2014[/B] [I]08:43GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ..... Despite a marginal breach of yesterday's low at 1.6539 to 1.6537 at Asian open, lack of follow-through selling triggered short-covering and the British pound rose to 1.6575 in early European morning. However, renewed selling emerged there and pressured the pair lower to 1.6554. Further choppy trading is likely to be seen ahead of NY open due partly to the absence of eco. data releases from UK.

Offers have now been raised to 1.6590/00 and more above at 1.6610/15 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.6520/30.

This morning trading cable was tricky on Tue as despite an initial rebound from 1.6566 to 1.6595 in Asia, renewed broad-based strength in greenback capped intra-day gain and the pound later fell in tandem with euro to 1.6540 near NY close.
Price briefly weakened to 1.6537 shortly after Asian open on renewed decline in eur/usd, however, bids abv Mon’s fresh 4-1/2 month low at 1.6535 lifted price.

Bids are noted at 1.6540-35 with stop below 1.6530 but demand fm real money accounts are touted near 1.6500/05. On the upside, offers are located at 1.6560/70 and more at 1.6590/00 with stop reported abv 1.6620, therefore, selling cable on intra-day recovery is the way to go. No U.K. data are due out today, so the pound shud track intra-day move in eur/usd.

18

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views GBP/USD

29 Aug 2014
GBP/USD[/B] - … 2 pieces of news to suggest selling eur/gbp cross is the way to go after yesterday’s downbeat EZ economic sentiment. Earlier on Fri, data from research firm GfK showed consumer confidence edged up in the U.K. in Aug, driven by the fast improvement of the economy during the last year.

GfK’s consumer confidence index increased to +1 in August from -2 in previous month. GfK said the improvement in consumer confidence largely reflects a reassessment of the recent past by households, although people are also increasingly optimistic about the future. However, Nick Moon, MD of social research at GfK said ‘There is no guarantee how long this stable position will last - a rush of good or bad economic news could set off a marked rise or fall - but things could stay like this for a while,.’

The survey also registered an increase in the consumers’ will to both save and make major purchases, such as furniture or electrical goods. These results are consistent with the recent CBI Distributive Trades Survey, which showed a great majority of businesses reporting higher sales volumes, with furniture retailers ranking on top.

Reuters reported, ‘Of the 142 firms surveyed in the CBI’s distributive trades survey, a balance of +25% of retailers expected their overall business situation to improve over the next three months, which was the highest since May 2002.’ ‘The CBI added that 51% said sales in August were up on a year ago, while 14% said they were down. That gave a balance of +37%, up on July’s +21% n matching Feb’s 21-month high.’

Cable swung wildly in volatile session on Thursday. Although the pound rose in tandem with euro n briefly climbed above Wednesday’s high at 1.6606 to 1.6615 in Europe, renewed tensions in Ukraine triggered broad-based buying in dlr and cable briefly fell to 1.6567. Later, price rebounded to 1.6599 on cross-buying of sterling vs eur & yen and then chopped inside 1.6567-1.6599 in NY session.

The failure to close above 1.6600 level after a second day testing Thursday suggests consolidation with downside bias remains and selling cable on recovery for marginal weakness below Mon’s 4-1/2 is is recommended. Offers from various accounts are noted up from 1.6590 to 1.6610 and more at 1.6630-40 with stops emerging above 1.6650. On the downside, bids are placed at 1.6550-40 and then 1.6525/20 with demand from real money accounts located around 1.6500.

On the data front, U.K. will release the nationwide house prices in August at 06:00GMT. Market forecasts the reading to be unchanged at 0.1% in monthly basis but slightly lower to 10.1% from a year earlier.

19

[B]
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

02 Sep 2014 [/B] [I]08:32GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- .... Cable has stabilised after intra-day sell off from 1.6605 (Asia) to as low as 1.6554 in European morning due initially dlr's strength at Asian open, then broad-based selling of sterling vs euro & yen.

The fact that price is unable to stage a short-covering rebound after release of a much stronger-than-expected U.K. construction PMI (Aug actual came in at 64.0 vs forecast of 61.4 & prev. reading of 62.4) suggests the no. of sterling bears is greater than the bulls. Looks like sterling bears are targeting stops below last Mon’s 4-1/2 month low at 1.6535. For now, offers are tipped at 1.6585/95 n more abv with stop touted abv 1.6615. A mixture of bids n stops is reported near 1.6535-30, suggesting selling cable on recovery is the way to go.

Although sterling held well yesterday after a surprise downbeat U.K. manufacturing PMI where Aug reading dropped fm 54.8 to 52.25. We have construction PMI due out today n then the important services PMI on Wed.

The U.K. Telegraph reported a weaker outlook for the manufacturing sector has led some analysts to suggest that the best days of the U.K. recovery have now passed. Poor manufacturing data could signal the end of a hot streak for U.K. growth.

The survey pointed to a “broad slowdown” that is underway in the UK’s manufacturing sector, according to Markit, who compiled the report. Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, said: “It is also becoming increasingly evident that UK industry is not immune to the impacts of rising geopolitical and global market uncertainty, especially when they affect economic growth and business confidence in our largest trading partner the eurozone.”

With the Scottish referendum on Sep 18 a little more than 2-week away, more news n latest poll results will be reported. Reuters reported the British government said on Monday it was not drawing up contingency plans for a surprise vote in favour of Scottish independence.

One of the major debates has raised big questions such as what currency an independent Scotland would use and what would happen to Britain’s Scotland-based nuclear submarines. But the govt on Mon refused to discuss how it would handle a split.
“No such work (is being) undertaken,” PM David Cameron’s official spokesman told reporters when asked if the govt had drawn up contingency plans for a “Yes” vote. “The govt’s entire focus is on making the case for the UK staying together.”

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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views GBP/USD

08 Sep 2014
GBP/USD[/B] - … Cable was the biggest mover in Asian morning and continues to take centre stage at European open. Short-term specs (European early birds) were spotted selling sterling broadly earlier and intra-day sup at 1.6165 (NZ) gave way without heavy bashing, the pound touched a fresh near 10-month low of 1.6145 (Reuters).

Despite intra-day resumption of recent downtrend, as price is trading nearly 2 cents below Fri’s close of around 1.6331, further steep fall looks unlikely n risk is seen for another corrective bounce back twd Asian 1.6333 high later in the day.

Another piece of sterling-bearish news: British manufacturers are cautious about increasing levels of capital spending, a trade group said on Mon, raising questions as to whether a recent pick-up in business investment is sustainable in the long term.

A new survey by the EEF manufacturers’ group n Lombard Asset Finance (conducted between Apr 30 n May 14 with 173 companies responding) found that most firms had only moderate investment plans which focused largely on replacing outdated technology.

Business investment, key to boosting productivity, has grown for 5 quarters in a row but still lags well behind pre-recession levels and is below spending in other countries. Only 1 in 3 manufacturing firms taking part in the survey said they will invest the same on plant n machinery in the next 2 years as they did in the previous 2.

Earlier, the poll conducted by YouGov for the Sun Times forced those who had brushing off a lead by the supporters for Scottish independence eat humble pies at their breakfast tables yesterday.

Reuters reported showed supporters of independence had taken their first opinion poll lead since the referendum campaign began. With less than 2 weeks to go before the vote, the poll put the “Yes” to independence campaign on 51% n the "No: camp on 49%, overturning a 22-point lead for the unionist position in just a month.

British FinMin George Osborne said on Sun plans would be set out in the coming days to give Scotland more autonomy on tax, spending n welfare if Scots vote against independence in a historic referendum on Sept. 18. PM David Cameron had, ironically, vetoed a third ballot option for greater devolution, betting that the stark choice of yes or no to independence would deliver a clear victory for the status quo as cautious voters turned away from an uncertain future.

Osborne told the BBC “You will see in the next few days a plan of action to give more powers to Scotland … Then Scotland will have the best of both worlds. They will both avoid the risks of separation but have more control over their own destiny, which is where I think many Scots want to be.”