AceTraderForex Apr 22: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

Update Time: [B]24 Dec 2014[/B] [I]08:00 GMT[/I]

[B]DAILY OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD[/B]

Yesterday’s anticipated sell off to 1.2165 suggests MT downtrend from 1.3995 (May) remains in progress n further weakness to proj. target at 1.2146 is likely, however, ‘loss of momentum’ should limit downside to 1.2100 and yield a much-needed rebound later.

Sell again on recovery with stop as indicated and only above 1.2272 (Monday's high) signals low is made.

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK (EUR/USD) [/B]
Update Time: [B]19 Jan 2015[/B] [I]02:31 GMT[/I]

The single currency tumbled to a fresh 11-year low at 1.1460 on Friday on speculation that ECB’s president Mario Draghi will announce a 550 billion-euro ($635 billion) bond-purchase program this week.
However, short-covering in New York lifted the pair to 1.1589, suggesting further choppy consolidation would be seen.
On the upside, as long as 1.1648 resistance remains intact, bearishness remains for a retreat to 1.1500/10 but said temporary low at 1.1460 should hold from here.

Looking ahead, a breach of 1.1460 would extend weakness to 1.1400 and later 1.1350/57 before prospect of a much-needed correction later.

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK [/B]
Update Time: [B]20 Jan 2015[/B] [I]04:34 GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] -1.1590
Despite yesterday’s brief rise to 1.1639 on short-covering, renewed selling below previous res at 1.1649 capped euro’s upside.
The single currency fell again to 1.1573 in Asian morning on renewed speculation that ECB’s president Mario Draghi will announce a 550 billion-euro ($635 billion) bond-purchase program on 22 Jan, suggesting consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1540/50 and possibly towards, however, aforesaid low at 1.1460 should hold from here.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1649 resistance would bring stronger correction of medium-term downtrend to 1.1700.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Jan 2015[/B] [I]03:46GMT [/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ..... With the major market event of ECB massive bond purchase announcement out of the way, the next focus is this Sun's Greek election. 

Bloomberg reported the ECB set limits on accessing its bond-buying program that will exclude Greece for at least 6 months, raising pressure on whichever party wins Jan. 25 elections to heed the demands of official creditors.

The ECB decision locks Greece out of the QE program until policy questions raised by the vote have been resolved. Foremost among them is the strategy of Alexis Tsipras, whose Syriza party is leading PM Antonis Samaras’s New Democracy in polls after he pledged to wring substantial concessions from the so-called troika of creditors.

Also reported were 2 separate surveys by the Alco and Rass polling companies published Wed in Athens showed a lead of as much as 4.9 percentage points for anti-bailout Syriza party over the premier’s New Democracy party.

Greece’s next gov’t will have to decide on extending the international bailout program that expires at the end of Feb, with the country set to run out of cash by the end of Jun at the latest. While voters are attracted by a Syriza platform which includes opposing the terms attached to the aid, investors have been spooked by the implications of a potential Tsipras victory.

The two polls by Rass n Alco gave Syriza 31.2% n 32% respectively, compared with 27% n 27.1% for New Democracy. That suggests that even if Tsipras wins, he won’t have enough lawmakers for a majority in Greece’s 300-seat chamber.

Earlier the single currency nose-dived from 1.1651 to a fresh 11-year low at 1.1316 on Thursday after ECB President Mario Draghi told reporters in Frankfurt yesterday the central bank will buy 60 billion euros ($68 billion) a month of public and private debt until September 2016. Although short-covering bids above psychological level at 1.1300 provided brief support to euro, renewed selling at 1.1380 and more at 1.1400 shud cap euro’s upside and yield another sell off later.
On the downside, mixture of bids and stops were located at 1.1800.

Market focus may shift to the upcoming election of Greece on Jan. 25 as ECB’s president Mario Draghi said on Thursday that Greece will be ineligible for the ECB’s 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.3 trillion) program until at least July because of limits on how much debt the central bank buys from a single issuer.

The European Central Bank set limits on accessing its bond-buying program that will exclude Greece for at least six months, raising pressure on whichever party wins Jan. 25 elections to heed the demands of official creditors.

According to a statement on the ECB’s website, Greece must also complete a stalled review of its current bail out, as purchases from program countries will be suspended during such assessments.

Update Time: [B]30 Jan 2015[/B] [I]09:37 GMT[/I]
[B]DAILY OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD[/B] - 1.1310

Although euro has staged a strong rebound from 1.1262 to 1.1368, as long as 1.1383 res holds, another leg of decline from Tuesday’s high of 1.1423 to retrace corrective rise from Monday’s 11-yr low at 1.1098 would take place and yield re-test of said sup, below, 1.1224.

Sell on recovery with stop as indicated, break would signal pullback from 1.1423 is over, 1.1423.

DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 03 Feb 2015 23:53GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Down

Daily Indicators
Turning up

21 HR EMA
1.1422

55 HR EMA
1.1374

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up

Hourly Indicators
Rising

13 HR RSI
70

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias

Res
1.1651 - Jan 22 high
1.1587 - 100% proj. of 1.1098-1.1423 fm 1.1262
1.1534 - Y’day’s high

Support
1.1423 - Last Tue’s high, now sup
1.1368 - Last Thur’s high, now sup
1.1313 - Y’day’s low

. EUR/USD - 1.1467… Despite euro’s sideways trading in Tue’s Asia n European morning, hope for a breakthrough on recent standoff between the new Greek anti-bailout gov’t n its international creditors lifted the euro n triggered a ferocious rally to 1.1534 once previous top at 1.1423 was penetrated.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, euro’s rally abv last week’s top at 1.1423 (now sup) confirms the LT downtrend fm 1.6040 (2008 record high) has formed a temporary low at last Mon’s 11-year trough at 1.1098 n correction to 1.1587 is envisaged after consolidation, this is 100% projection of 1.1098-1.1423 measured fm 1.1262, however, as hourly oscillators wud be o/bot territory on such a move, reckon price wud falter below 1.1676/1.1680, being 50% r of 1.2254-1.1098 n daily res n yield retreat later this week. On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1423 wud indicate a top is possibly made n shift risk to downside for weakness twd 1.13662/68 but sup at 1.1262 shud remain intact.

. Today, intra-day retreat suggests initial consolidation is in store, however, as present price is abv both 21-he n 55-hr emas, buying euro on dips for further marginal gain to indicated upside target is favoured.

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Update Time: [B]26 Feb 2015[/B][I] 02:35 GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD [/B]- 1.1365
The single currency rebounded fm Tuesday’s low at 1.1289 to 1.1388 on Wednesday on short-covering, suggesting further choppy trading inside recent established broad range of 1.1543-1.1270 would be seen with neutral bias.
Above 1.1400 may bring gain to 1.1450, however, resistance at 1.1499 should cap upside.

On the downside, a breach of key daily support at 1.1270 would confirm the corrective rise from Jan’s 11-year trough at 1.1098 has indeed ended at 1.1534 and yield retreat to 1.1224 and then 1.1200.

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Update Time: [B]10 Mar 2015[/B] [I]01:45 GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - 1.0832
Despite euro’s brief rebound from Monday’s fresh 11-1/2 year low at 1.0823 to 1.0907 in Europe on short-covering, as renewed selling pressured price again, suggesting recent downtrend would resume after minor consolidation, yield re-test of said support, below would extend weakness towards projected downside target at 1.0752 later.

On the upside, only a breach of 1.0907 would signal temporary low is made and bring stronger rebound to 1.0929 and 1.0988.

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.0615[/B]
Update Time: [B]13 Mar 2015[/B] [I]00:56 GMT[/I]

Despite euro’s marginal weakness to a fresh 12-year trough at 1.0494 in Asia on Thursday, subsequent strong rebound to 1.0643 in European morning on active short-covering and then a brief jump to 1.0684 on release of weak U.S. retail sales signals mid-term downtrend has made a temporary low there and a long-overdue correction towards 1.0700 level is envisaged.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.0556 (previous resistance, now support) would indicate above mentioned recovery is over instead and yield re-test of 1.0494, break, 1.0430/40.

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK ON MAJOR EUR/USD[/B]

Update Time: [B]16 Mar 2015[/B] [I]01:20 GMT[/I]
[B]EUR/USD - 1.0515[/B]

Despite euro’s intra-day fall below Friday’s fresh 12-year trough at 1.0462 to 1.0457 (Reuters) in New Zealand, subsequent intra-day rebound suggests choppy trading would be seen in Asia.
However, reckon 1.0566 (previous sup, now resistance) would cap upside and bearishness remains for another decline later, below 1.0457 would extend weakness to 1.0436 and then 1.0400.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0636 would indicate a temporary low is made and yield retracement towards 1.0684 (last Thursday’s high).

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Update Time: [B]17 Mar 2015[/B] [I]01:13 GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD - 1.0555[/B]
Despite euro’s initial fall below Friday’s fresh 12-year trough at 1.0462 to 1.0457 (Reuters) in yesterday’s New Zealand, subsequent intra-day rally to 1.0620 (New York) signals recent strong downtrend has ‘finally’ made a temporary low there and stronger retracement towards chart objective at 1.0684 is likely before prospect of a retreat.

On the downside, only below 1.0498 (yesterday’s European morning support) would indicate correction is over instead and bring subsequent weakness towards 1.0457.

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major EUR/USD
Update Time: 18 Mar 2015 00:57 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0606

Despite euro’s rally from Monday’s fresh 12-year trough at 1.0457 to as high as 1.0651 yesterday, subsequent intra-day retreat to 1.0584 in New York suggests 1st leg of correction has ended there and choppy trading with mild downside bias remains.
Below 1.0584 would bring weakness to 1.0551 (yesterday’s low in Asia) but support at 1.0498 should remain intact.

On the upside, only above 1.0651 would yield stronger retracement of recent strong downtrend to 1.0684 but reckon resistance at 1.0717 would remain intact.

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major EUR/USD[/B]

Update Time: [B]20 Mar 2015[/B] [I]00:48 GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD - 1.0663[/B]

Despite euro’s rally from 1.0580 to as high as 1.1062 Wednesday, renewed broad-based strength in greenback pressured price sharply from there and the single currency tumbled to 1.0613 in yesterday New York.
This is suggesting the said correction has ended and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen.

Looking ahead, a daily close below 1.0551 support would confirm this view and bring re-test of the said temporary low later this month.

On the upside, only above 1.0820 (previous support) would prolong choppy trading but reckon resistance at 1.0920 would remain intact.

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major EUR/USD[/B]
Update Time: [B]23 Mar 2015[/B] [I]01:06 GMT[/I]
[B]EUR/USD[/B] - 1.0815

Euro’s rally from last Thursday’s low at 1.0613 to as high as 1.0882 last Friday signals correction from last Wednesday fresh 2-week peak at 1.1062 has ended there earlier and consolidation with upside bias remains.
A daily close above 1.0920 would encourage for gain towards 1.1000 but said temporary is likely to hold this week.

Looking ahead, only above 1.1062 would extend erratic up move from last Monday’s fresh 12-year trough at 1.0457 towards 1.1140/50.

On the downside, below 1.0695 would prolong choppy trading but above mentioned support at 1.0613 should remain intact.

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major EUR/USD[/B]
Update Time: [B]24 Mar 2015[/B] [I]01:12 GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD - 1.0936[/B]

Euro’s rally from last Thursday’s low at 1.0613 to as high as 1.0972 yesterday signals correction from last Wednesday fresh 2-week peak at 1.1062 has ended there earlier and consolidation with upside bias remains.
Looking ahead, above 1.1062 is needed to extend erratic up move from last Monday’s fresh 12-year trough at 1.0457 towards 1.1140/50.

On the downside, below 1.0882 (Friday’s high, now support) would prolong choppy trading but reckon 1.0834 would contain pullback.

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD[/B]

Update Time: [B]25 Mar 2015[/B] [I]01:11 GMT[/I]

Although euro’s rally from last Thursday’s low at 1.0613 to as high as 1.1029 yesterday signals correction from last Wednesday fresh 2-week peak at 1.1062 has ended there earlier, subsequent intra-day sell off to 1.0891 in New York suggests further choppy trading would be seen and near term downside bias is seen for weakness towards 1.0820/30.
However, reckon sup at 1.0767 would hold and bring rebound later.

Looking ahead, above 1.1062 is needed to extend erratic upmove from last Monday’s fresh 12-year trough at 1.0457 towards 1.1140/50.

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major EUR/USD
[/B]
Update Time: [B]26 Mar 2015[/B] [I]01:13 GMT[/I]

Although euro’s rally from last Thursday’s low at 1.0613 to as high as 1.1029 Tuesday signals correction from last Wednesday fresh 2-week peak at 1.1062 has ended there earlier and despite subsequent sell off to 1.0891.
Yesterday’s rebound to 1.1014 suggests consolidation with upside bias remains but only above 1.1062 would extend erratic upmove from last Monday’s fresh 12-year trough at 1.0457 towards 1.1140/50.

Below 1.0890 would indicate a temporary top is made and shift risk to downside for weakness to 1.0834 but support at 1.0767 should remain intact.

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major EUR/USD[/B]

Update Time: [B]27 Mar 2015[/B] [I]01:05 GMT[/I]

Despite euro’s rally to 1.1052 in Europe yesterday, price retreat after being capped below last Wednesday’s post-FOMC high at 1.1062 and then tumbled to 1.0856 in New York.
This suggests further choppy trading inside recent broad range of 1.1062-1.0613 would continue and consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness towards 1.0830/40 before prospect of a rebound.

On the upside, only above 1.0940/50 would indicate a low is possibly made and bring gain towards 1.1000.

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major EUR/USD[/B]
Update Time:[B] 31 Mar 2015[/B] [I]01:39 GMT[/I]
[B]
EUR/USD [/B]- 1.0822

Yesterday’s erratic decline to 1.0810 due to renewed market concerns over Greek debt suggests euro’s early rebound from last Friday’s 1.0801 low, although strong, had ended at 1.0949 and decline from last week’s peak at 1.1052 (Thursday) would resume towards chart objective at 1.0767 after consolidation.

However, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.0742/46 and risk has increased for a retracement of aforesaid fall later today or tomorrow.

On the upside, a firm rise above Monday’s European high would be the 1st signal a low is in place and risk gain to 1.0910/20 and then later towards 1.0949.

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major EUR/USD[/B]
Update Time: [B]02 Apr 2015[/B] [I]01:12 GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - 1.0757

Euro’s sell off from last Thursday’s high of 1.1052 to as low as 1.0713 Tuesday due to worries over Greece debts signals price would continue to gyrate inside early established broad range of 1.1062-1.0613.

Despite yesterday’s intra-day rebound to 1.0800, reckon 1.0845 would limit upside and yield another decline later, below 1.0713 would extend weakness to 1.0695 but near term loss of momentum should keep price above support at 1.0656 today.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0845 would confirm a low is made and yield gain towards 1.0900 before prospect of a retreat.