What will happen next week. Some experts say that it will reach 1.74, then there are others who laugh and say that it will fall back to 1.68 or even 1.67.
I am surprised that a speech announcing increasing the interest rate sooner than expected can turn the gpb/usd so bullish.
I am really confused - pls share your views.
I would be bullish. If it manages to break 1.7000 we could be trading around 1.75 in couple of months. BUT have to remember that it’s summer. As the liquidity in the summer months is a lot thinner it makes it a lot harder for ANY pair to generate a valid breakout, therefore, summertime always prefers range instead of trend.
So it should be oscillating if it cannot break 1.7000. How low do you think it can come down to in order to place a buy.
The SP500 is trading at all time highs after a key major breakout, on all time low participation rates, how would you account for that given your previous statement?
All these adages about trading are not concrete, black and white principles. They’re able to explain market dynamics; except when they don’t.
You are mixing together two completely different things. Stock market is where it is right now, because of the illusion about absence of risk. Hell, even the bulls are saying that the current market levels are unsustainable. It has nothing to do with seasonality.
But trading year by year, I can’t remember any forex pair that generated enough volatility for a valid breakout with a proper followthrough in the summertime.
And I am not saying that it can’t happen. Just that, I wouldn’t bet on it.
I will be waiting for 1.6700 before entering
Actually, I’m not- you just didn’t mention anything about fear/greed in your original post.
It looks like now you’re referring more specifically to complacency via moral hazard- not [U]liquidity[/U]?
Your original post:
To which I replied:
There’s no arguing why the SP500 is @ where it’s @.
I was just refuting your statement that breakouts are only “valid” during times of high participation rates.
Rangoo, I’d guess that you are looking at maybe a 15 min, or even a 1hr chart
Switch over to a daily and zoom back, GBP has risen over 2000 pips in this past year. Cable is merely continuing the trend - caused by the stream of positive news on the UK economy.
(Sorry Mack if you are reading, I know it often feels far from positive)
s
Yes I have been looking at the 15 min chart, but 2000 pips increase and it will still be going on - wow! I had the idea that what goes up comes down - in this case atleast for sometime.
Has the GBP lost its steam or is it resting before a final push.
The trend remains higher to my core target at 1.7330/32.
GBPUSD saw a volatile session on Thursday, reversing early weakness to stand back near the recent highs. I allow for consolidation to extend into the end of the week. However, I remain bullish and look for an extension through 1.7180 to potential trend resistance at 1.7224 next, and eventually on to my long-held medium-term target at 1.7330/32 – the 50% retracement of the 2007/2009 collapse. I would look for this to then cap at first, for a correction lower. Bigger picture though, I continue to target 1.8235.
Immediate support shows at 1.7149/39, then 1.7095. Failure here can target 1.7008/1.6998, which I look to now ideally hold to keep the immediate risk higher.
Strategy: Long, stop below 1.6921, for 1.7330.
GBPUSD is currently holding in a high level range above trendline support and the recent breakout point at 1.7095/90. I allow for the consolidation to extend near-term, but the trend stays higher to potential trend resistance at 1.7229 next, and eventually on to my long-held medium-term target at 1.7330/32 – the 50% retracement of the 2007/2009 collapse. I would look for this to then cap at first, for a correction lower. Bigger picture though, I continue to target 1.8235. Immediate support shows at 1.7108/06, then 1.7090. Failure here can see a minor top to target 1.7008/1.6998, which I look to then ideally hold.
[B]Trade Idea[/B]: Long, stop below 1.6921, for 1.7330.
The CABLE confirmed a further weak closing below the low of the previous session suggesting further downside pressure suggesting a 1,65 undershooting!
The indicators of the daily chart are still well negative and still well oversold while however showing potential positive reversals; still the decline failed yet to confirm divergences in our reference RSI, therefore not confirming yet a negative tone, like for example the EUR/USD. The indicators of the s/t charts are instead showing a mixed picture with however bullish divergences in the 4h chart supporting a negative tone.
In the s/t only an hourly closing above 1,6605 will postpone further direct weakness favouring a rebound with the 200 hours line at 1,6685 the possible attraction.
We are still waiting for a decent rebound to sell but at the moment we did not see any signal suggesting a rebound, like we had for the EUR/USD
GBP/USD was in strong descending trend from the top price of 1.71905 that during this descending trend the sellers could record the bottom price of 1.60592. Right now price in long time frames such as monthly, weekly and daily is under 5-day moving average and warns about price decrease in long period of time.In Daily time frame the previous day candle was closed as a Doji candlestick pattern that shows the indecision for ascending or descending.
If this candlestick pattern confirms (closing of ascending candle at the end of the day), there will be the potential for changing price direction.Currently according to the condition of this currency pair and its strong downtrend in recent days, price is in saturation sell area and warns about a slight reformation in Daily time frame.The first important warning for starting a reformation in downtrend and rise of the price is breaking of the resistance level of 1.61572 (the highest changing price level on the previous day).
