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  1. #11
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    Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR IN THE SPOTLIGHT FOR YELLEN’S SECOND TESTIMONY



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: Germany posted yesterday a disappointing number for the ZEW Economic Sentiment, showing that optimism regarding economic conditions is declining. On top of that, Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated that the economy continues to improve and the US Dollar added to the previous gains.

    Name:  2014.07.16-US-Dollar-in-the-spotlight-for-Yellens-second-testimony-pic1-1024x479.jpg
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    Technical Outlook
    The support at 1.3585 was broken yesterday on the back of Euro weakness coupled with greenback strength but the level still needs to be re-tested to confirm the break. This re-test is usually seen easier on a lower time frame and if it is successful, we anticipate a touch of the next support, located at 1.3520. A move back above 1.3585 would make 1.3640 the first target and would suggest that the ranging period is still not over.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The US Producer Price index is released at 12:30 pm GMT, showing the change in prices paid by producers for their goods and services, compared to the previous month. The indicator has inflationary implications because a higher price charged by producers will be eventually passed on to retailers and ultimately, to the consumer. The expected change is 0.2% compared with last month’s -0.2% and higher numbers are considered beneficial for the greenback. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT Fed Chair Yellen will testify before the House Financial Services Committee, an event considered to have a high impact on the US Dollar.


    GBP/USD
    The Pound scored another major victory against the greenback as United Kingdom’s CPI showed an unexpected increase from 1.5% to 1.9%. As a result, the pair printed a new multi-year high at 1.7191.

    Name:  2014.07.16-US-Dollar-in-the-spotlight-for-Yellens-second-testimony-pic2-1024x479.jpg
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    Technical Outlook
    Although we have a new high, the resistance located around 1.7180 held yesterday and even rejected price lower; at the moment, that resistance is just pierced, not broken and we expect a new descent into 1.7095 support zone as the market is still overextended. A daily close above 1.7180 would be considered a true break of resistance and would indicate that higher prices will follow.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The day’s main event for the Pound is the release of the Claimant Count Change, an indicator which tracks changes in the number of unemployed people claiming social help due to their lack of jobs. A higher number suggests economic contraction and usually weakens the Pound; the release is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the expected change is -27.1K while the previous was -27.4K.

  2. #12
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    Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

    FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES TURN TOWARDS EUROPEAN INFLATION INDICATORS



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: The US Dollar continued to advance against the Euro as Fed Chair Janet Yellen maintained a hawkish attitude and the US Producer Price Index change surpassed analysts’ expectations. Price is nearing support but no attempts were made to break it.

    Name:  2014.07.17-All-eyes-turn-towards-European-inflation-indicators-pic1-1024x479.jpg
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    Technical Outlook
    An important support for medium term price action is ahead: 1.3520 and we are faced with another bounce-or-break scenario. However, this time we slightly favor a bounce north, mostly because the Relative Strength Index has passed the 30 level downwards, suggesting oversold conditions and from a medium term perspective, the pair has been ranging. If the current support is broken, the next destination is likely to be 1.3480 (visible on a Daily chart).

    Fundamental Outlook
    The day’s main event will be the release of the European Consumer Price Index scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%. ECB’s inflation target is just below 2% and the current CPI value is considered too low, thus an even lower value would be detrimental for the Euro.

    At 2:00 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index comes out, showing the opinions of about 250 manufacturers from the Philadelphia district regarding current economic and business conditions. The expected value is 15.6, a decrease from the previous 17.8 and lower numbers usually weaken the greenback.


    GBP/USD
    The pair had a mixed trading day yesterday and price remained confined between support and resistance despite signs of improving job market in the United Kingdom.

    Name:  2014.07.17-All-eyes-turn-towards-European-inflation-indicators-pic2-1024x479.jpg
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    Technical Outlook
    Price is still on its way to 1.7095 following a bounce off 1.7180 resistance zone. The Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme reading so there is no major reason to believe that bulls will take back control of the pair unless the US economy will show surprising figures.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The United Kingdom has a calm day ahead in terms of economic releases so all eyes will turn towards the United States events.

  3. #13
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    Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

    FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT LEVELS AHEAD. A BOUNCE-OR-BREAK SCENARIO UNFOLDS



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: The pair touched 1.3520 support yesterday but the European CPI remained unchanged and price stalled. The US Manufacturing Index for the Philadelphia district posted a surprisingly good value but the release just briefly strengthened the US Dollar.

    Name:  2014.07.18-Support-levels-ahead.-A-bounce-or-break-scenario-unfolds-pic1-1024x477.jpg
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    Technical Outlook
    The bears’ run seems exhausted and the Relative Strength Index is starting to climb out of oversold territory, a fact which suggests that support is still too strong for the sellers to break and that a bounce up might be next. However, yesterday’s ranging price action leaves the door open for both a bounce and a break. First resistance is located at 1.3585 while support sits at 1.3480 (if the current level is broken).

    Fundamental Outlook
    The sole release that can trigger sharp moves is the US Consumer Sentiment which is a leading indicator of consumer spending because usually when people are optimistic about the country’s economic conditions, they tend to spend more. The release is scheduled at 1:55 pm GMT and the expected figure is 83.5, a rise from the previous 82.5; if analysts’ forecast is surpassed, we are likely to see US Dollar strength.


    GBP/USD
    The Pound wasn’t affected by major news releases yesterday and the pair continued to move down towards 1.7095 as predicted. The US release helped the bears achieve this target.

    Name:  2014.07.18-Support-levels-ahead.-A-bounce-or-break-scenario-unfolds-pic2-1024x477.jpg
Views: 164
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    Technical Outlook
    For medium term movement, the support located at 1.7063 is very important but the first barrier in front of falling prices is the current level of 1.7095. A break of both these levels would indicate that the pair is ready for a bigger retracement and that the uptrend is starting to fade away. A bounce higher could potentially generate a climb back into 1.7180 area of resistance.

    Fundamental Outlook
    Ahead we have another day that lacks major United Kingdom news, thus price direction will be mainly affected by the technical factors and by the US release.

  4. #14
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    Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

    FOREX NEWS: A LACKLUSTER FUNDAMENTAL SCENE TRANSLATES INTO A SLOW MONDAY



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: Friday’s trading session was characterized by a major reversal of what seemed to be a clear break of support. The US Consumer Sentiment survey showed a small decrease but the release didn’t have major impact on the pair.

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    Technical Outlook
    Once price entered the zone created between 1.3520 and 1.3480 it was immediately rejected higher. This fact shows that bulls still have underlying strength and that a break of support is a low probability occurrence. The Relative Strength Index continues to move upwards, coming from an oversold condition and for today, we expect higher prices but a slow, ranging day is also a distinct possibility since no major economic indicators are released.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The German Bundesbank will release their Monthly Report at 10:00 am GMT, containing statistical data and analysis of current and future financial conditions. The event tends to have a higher impact if Bundesbank’s viewpoint differs from the one shown by the ECB.


    GBP/USD
    The pair had mixed direction Friday as the bears controlled the first part of the day but the Pound erased almost all losses during the second part. Support was tested but price was price higher after a brief dip below.

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    Technical Outlook
    The fact that price was rejected after trying to break 1.7063 may very well be a sign that bulls are ready to resume upwards movement and to take the pair into 1.7180 once again. Even if such a move occurs, we don’t believe the entire distance will be traveled in one day and at the moment 1.7095 sits in front of rising prices. We anticipate a ranging day, with price moving above and below the level which was just mentioned.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today, thus price action will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.

  5. #15
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    FOREX NEWS: MARKET PICKS UP DIRECTION AHEAD OF US INFLATION DATA



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was mostly characterized by indecision and we saw the pair move higher just to drop immediately to touch support again. Overall the direction was mixed and price had ranging behavior.

    Name:  2014.07.22-Market-picks-up-direction-ahead-of-US-inflation-data-pic1-1024x479.jpg
Views: 161
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    Technical Outlook
    For today we expect a more directional price action as the pair will probably break away from the current level of 1.3520. However, the direction of the move will be mostly influenced by the US economic data due to be released today, because the technical side of the market doesn’t hold any special clues. Yesterday’s high (1.3550) will potentially act as resistance while 1.3520 – 1.3500 zone still acts as support.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The day’s main event is the release of the US Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. A small change is expected from the previous 0.4% to 0.3%, a fact which would suggest that inflation has slowed down and could potentially weaken the US Dollar. AT 2:00 pm GMT the US Existing Home Sales numbers are released, showing the change in the annualized number of houses sold during the last month. If the number of houses sold increases, this often means that the buyers will spend additional money for furniture, house appliances, electronic devices, etc., thus spurring consumer spending. It also indicates that people are confident in economic conditions since a house is purchased usually when the economy is thriving. Today’s expected number is 4.98M, an increase from last month’s 4.89M.


    GBP/USD
    The lack of major economic releases generated a ranging day for the GBP/USD as well. Price moved between 1.7095 and 1.7063 without being able to break free for the entire day.

    Name:  2014.07.22-Market-picks-up-direction-ahead-of-US-inflation-data-pic2-1024x479.jpg
Views: 159
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    Technical Outlook
    If the bears can take price below 1.7063 and at least one four-hour candle will close below this level, we are likely to see a touch of 1.7010 support next. A move above 1.7095 will open the door for uptrend resumption and possibly a touch of 1.7080 resistance zone (even if this comes true, the distance is too big to be traveled in a single day).

    Fundamental Outlook
    AT 10:00 am GMT the Confederation of British Industry will announce the Industrial Orders Expectations. This is a survey based on the opinions of about 550 manufacturers which shows the expectations of order volume for the next 3 months. Analysts’ forecast is a decrease from the previous 11 to 9, a fact which would be detrimental for the Pound if it were to come true.

  6. #16
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    Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

    FOREX NEWS: BEARS BREAK SUPPORT. SOME CORRECTION EXPECTED



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened yesterday against the Euro as speculation of Fed increasing interest rates took over the market. The American Consumer Price Index came out as anticipated, at 0.3%.

    Name:  2014.07.23-Bears-break-support.-Some-correction-expected-pic1-1024x479.jpg
Views: 197
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    Technical Outlook
    The pair finally broke the support zone created around 1.3500 and is now headed for the next important level of 1.3400 seen on the daily chart above. However, from a four hour chart perspective, the Relative Strength Index has passed the 30 level to the downside once again, suggesting an oversold condition of the market. This indicates that upside corrections are likely to happen today and we expect moves above 1.3480 before price can resume bearish movement.

    Fundamental Outlook
    Today price action will be dictated mainly by the technical factors since no major economic indicators are released by either the United States or Europe.


    GBP/USD
    Price moved below 1.7063 yesterday on the back of US Dollar strength but the gains weren’t as significant as the ones seen against the Euro. The pair continues to lack clear direction but the long term uptrend is severely weakened.

    Name:  2014.07.23-Bears-break-support.-Some-correction-expected-pic2-1024x479.jpg
Views: 183
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    Technical Outlook
    The first barrier in front of the bears is located at 1.7010 but for the time being the support at 1.7063 is still not clearly surpassed. The four hour candle has long upper and lower wicks, a fact which indicates indecision and shows that control doesn’t belong to either side completely. The pair’s direction will be decided today by the fundamental aspect.

    Fundamental Outlook
    At 8:30 am GMT the votes on the latest BOE interest rate will be made public, showing how many MPC members voted for a rate change and how many voted to keep the rate unchanged. Analysts predict that all 9 members voted to keep rates unchanged and if this forecast comes true, the impact of the release will be mild.

    At 11:45 am GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak in Glasgow at the Commonwealth Games Trade and Investment conference. As always, his speeches can be accompanied by increased volatility and sudden moves, thus caution is recommended.

  7. #17
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    Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

    FOREX NEWS: MANUFACTURING DATA BRINGS THE EURO OUT OF CONSOLIDATION PHASE



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: Price moved sideways for the entire day yesterday as no major economic indicators were released by either the United States or Europe. The trading session was extremely slow and no important levels were broken.

    Name:  2014.07.24-Manufacturing-data-brings-the-Euro-out-of-consolidation-phase-pic1-1024x479.jpg
Views: 152
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    Technical Outlook
    The pair almost paused yesterday, consolidating below 1.3480 and moving in a 20 pip range for almost the entire day, making trading very difficult. Also, yesterday’s price action doesn’t add any clues to the pair’s next direction so we maintain our belief that price will correct slightly to the north before dropping further. On a four hour chart the Relative Strength Index is coming out of oversold territory, a fact which adds to the bias showed above.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The Euro will be influenced today by two releases: at 7:00 am GMT the French Manufacturing PMI is scheduled and at 7:30 am GMT, the same indicator for the German economy comes out. The French PMI is expected to increase from 48.2 to 48.5 while the German PMI is anticipated to change from 52.0 to 52.2. These are surveys derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and better readings show optimism, usually strengthening the single currency.


    GBP/USD
    All members of BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep rates unchanged but the Minutes of their latest meeting were a bit more dovish than market participants anticipated and the Pound weakened throughout the day as a result.

    Name:  2014.07.24-Manufacturing-data-brings-the-Euro-out-of-consolidation-phase-pic2-1024x479.jpg
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    Technical Outlook
    We expect the current direction to continue until 1.7010 is touched as this is the first level of support and it is likely to act as a magnet for price. Yesterday price moved north to touch 1.7095 and immediately bounced lower, showing that this level is now resistance. If the Relative Strength Index will indicate oversold conditions once support is touched, the probability of a move north will increase.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The main event for the Pound will be the release of UK’s Retail Sales, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. Sales made at a retail level represent a major part of the economy and thus hold a great importance for the Pound’s strength. The anticipated change is 0.2%, compared with last month’s -0.5%, a fact which would strengthen the Pound if it were to come true.
    Last edited by GDMFX; 07-24-2014 at 07:47 AM.

  8. #18
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    Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

    FOREX NEWS: BEARS IN CONTROL BUT BULLISH PRESSURE MOUNTS




    EUR/USD
    Forex News: Yesterday the Euro was strongly affected by a German survey which showed that optimism among purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector has increased. The better than expected value reversed a previous drop generated by the French counterpart of the same indicator.

    Name:  2014.07.25-Bears-in-control-but-bullish-pressure-mounts-pic1-1024x479.jpg
Views: 154
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    Technical Outlook
    At the moment price is re-testing the recently broken level of 1.3480 and if this results in a bounce lower, the level will turn into resistance and the door will be open for a move towards 1.3400 which is the next support. If 1.3480 doesn’t become resistance, the next level that can stop bullish movement is located at 1.3500.

    Fundamental Outlook
    At 8:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate is released and expected to show a value of 109.6. The survey draws its importance from the large sample of about 7,000 businesses which are asked to rate the current economic conditions and to give a 6-month outlook. Under normal circumstances, better than anticipated numbers strengthen the Euro and push the pair higher.

    The US Durable Goods Orders come out at 12:30 pm GMT and a hefty increase is expected: 0.4% from the previous -0.9%. This is a leading indicator of production since more orders suggest that producers will have to increase their activity in order to fill them.


    GBP/USD
    United Kingdom’s Retail Sales disappointed as the value was lower than forecast and this fact triggered Pound weakness which took the pair below support.

    Name:  2014.07.25-Bears-in-control-but-bullish-pressure-mounts-pic2-1024x479.jpg
Views: 141
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    Technical Outlook
    The level at 1.7010 was broken decisively and lower prices may follow, but before that can happen, a pullback to the upside is very probable; the Relative Strength Index has already passed the 30 level, reaching oversold territory, a fact which increases bullish pressure. The first potential resistance is now located at 1.7010 while support sits at 1.6950 followed by 1.6920.

    Fundamental Outlook
    United Kingdom’s most important gauge of economic performance is announced today at 8:30 am GMT: the Gross Domestic Product. No change is expected from last month’s value of 0.8% but any fluctuations will most likely have a big impact.

  9. #19
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    Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

    FOREX NEWS: MIXED PRICE ACTION AHEAD OF US HOUSE-MARKET DATA




    EUR/USD
    Forex News: Friday’s entire trading session was controlled by the bears as the US Dollar benefited from a better than expected value of the Durable Goods Orders and the Euro was weakened by a disappointing German

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Views: 126
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    Technical Outlook
    The current direction is likely to remain unchanged until price reaches 1.3400 which is the next support. The Relative Strength Index shows an oversold condition of the pair, a fact which increases the possibility of bullish corrections. If this will be the case, the first place where price can resume downwards motion is the resistance located at 1.3480. It is also possible to see ranging price action, considering the fact that Monday’s are usually slow days and that Friday price moved pretty strong compared to its latest behavior.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The only notable event of the day is the release of the US Pending Home Sales numbers scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The indicator shows the change in the number of houses under contract to be sold upon the completion of a final transaction and usually a higher value is beneficial to the US Dollar; today’s expected change is -0.2%, a major drop from the previous 6.1%.


    GBP/USD
    The pair exhibited ranging price action Friday as the release of the American Durable Goods Orders didn’t seem to affect the Pound too much.

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Views: 131
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    Technical Outlook
    Price is likely to hit 1.6950 before retracing higher, but if the level will be broken to the downside, the next support is located at 1.6920 and we don’t expect it to be broken today. To the upside the first target is 1.7010 and we might see moves in close vicinity of this level depending on the outcome of the US Pending Home Sales release.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for today so price will be mainly affected by technical factors and the US house data.

  10. #20
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    Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR AFFECTED BY CONFIDENCE AMONG AMERICAN CONSUMERS



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was slow and lacked clear direction as both the US Dollar and the Euro were little affected by news and economic indicators. The bulls were slightly more active but price traded in a narrow range.

    Name:  image0015-1024x479.jpg
Views: 130
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    Technical Outlook
    Price is moving upwards, coming from oversold territory and this behavior is likely to continue until the Relative Strength Index will reach its 50 level. The medium term trend is bearish and moves north should be considered just corrections, not a change of trend; resistance is located at 1.3480 and support at 1.3400.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The Euro will not be affected by major news releases today and the US Consumer Confidence will be the main market mover for the Dollar. The survey is scheduled for release at 2:00 pm GMT and the anticipated value is 85.5, a small increase from the previous 85.2. Confidence among consumers is a leading indicator of consumer spending, thus higher than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar.


    GBP/USD
    US Dollar weakness was seen throughout yesterday and the pair moved slowly upwards for almost the entire day. The disappointing value of the US Pending Home Sales also played a role in this bullish move.

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Views: 136
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    Technical Outlook
    Yesterday’s price action cleared the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index and this opens the door for short term downtrend resumption. The first target to the south is 1.6950, followed by 1.6920 while potential resistance sits at 1.7010. We must keep in mind that from a long term perspective the pair is in a clear uptrend, a fact which increases the chances of bullish moves.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The Pound will be affected today by the release of the Net Lending to Individuals. This indicator shows the change in the total value of loans granted to consumers and is also a leading indicator of consumer spending. A higher value suggests that consumers are willing to spend money and banks are comfortable granting loans, a fact which usually strengthens the Pound. The release is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the expected value is 2.6B, a slight decrease from last month’s 2.7B.

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