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  1. #21
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    Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

    FOREX NEWS: ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR A MARKET STORM ARE PRESENT. MAJOR US EVENTS SCHEDULED



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened yesterday on the back of improved American consumer confidence as shown by a report which came out with a reading of 90.9 compared with the anticipated value of 85.5. Sellers controlled the day but the distance traveled wasn’t spectacular.

    Name:  2014.07.30-All-the-ingredients-for-a-market-storm-are-present.-Major-US-events-scheduled-pic1-10.jpg
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    Technical Outlook
    Price is close to the support located at 1.3400 and we consider that today this level will be touched. The technical aspect of the market will be greatly overshadowed by the fundamentals but keep in mind that the Relative Strength Index is moving again below the 30 level, a fact which indicates an oversold market and favors bullish moves. Support is still located at 1.3400 while resistance sits at 1.3480.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The first event of the day is the release of the German Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 12:00 pm GMT and expected to decrease slightly from the previous 0f 0.3% to 0.2%. Such a decrease would be detrimental for the Euro as German inflation accounts for the major part of Euro Zone’s inflation.

    The ADP Non Farm Employment Change is released at 12:15 pm GMT, showing the change in the number of jobs created during the last month. The report is put together by a privately owned company and tries to mimic the more important Government issued data which comes out 2 days later. The expected number is 234K and better numbers usually
    strengthen the greenback.

    At 12:30 pm GMT the American Advance Gross Domestic Product is announced with a hefty increase expected: 3.1% while last month’s value was -2.9%. Such a big change would benefit the Dollar as the GDP is the main gauge of an economy’s performance and this is the earliest version which usually has the highest impact.

    Later in the day, at 6:00 pm GMT the American interest rate is announced but no change is anticipated and the FOMC Statement which accompanies the rate decision will be a more important market mover as it outlines possible future rate changes and the pace of the bond-buying program.


    GBP/USD
    The Pound was little affected by economic releases yesterday and Dollar strength took the pair below minor support.

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    Technical Outlook
    A strong support level is ahead: 1.6920; price is likely to stall or even reverse here, considering also the position of the Relative Strength Index, but as we mentioned above, the US Dollar will be highly affected today by economic data and the technical aspect will be secondary. The next strong and confirmed support (if 1.6920 is broken) is located at 1.6700 while first resistance sits at 1.7010.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases and all eyes will be focused on the United States.

  2. #22
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    Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

    FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT TURNS RESISTANCE? PRICE ACTION WILL TELL



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: The US Dollar gained on the back of a value of the American Gross Domestic Product which surpassed analysts’ expectations. During the Fed announcements the greenback initially added to previous gains but it soon started to weaken, given the dovish attitude of the Statement.

    Name:  2014.07.31-Support-turns-resistance-Price-action-will-tell-pic1-1024x479.jpg
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    Technical Outlook
    Support at 1.3400 was broken during the day but price immediately returned to test it from below. The cluster of data released yesterday didn’t create unidirectional movement and this brings us to a crossroad: if previous support will turn into resistance, price will likely continue downwards into the next major support which is located at 1.3295, but otherwise, the break of support will prove to be a false one and the pair will be headed north. For the time being, yesterday’s low located at 1.3366 might act as minor support.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The fundamental scene calms down a bit today as the only major event is the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%. ECB’s target for inflation is just below 2.0% and the current value is considered too low, thus an even lower number would be detrimental for the Euro and would most likely drive the pair south.


    GBP/USD
    US Dollar strength seen throughout the day allowed the bears to break the major support located at 1.6290 but once the FOMC Statement was released, the Pound managed to erase some of the previous losses.

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    Technical Outlook
    If the break of 1.6920 wasn’t a false one and it can be sustained, it means that a major victory was scored by the bears and the medium term balance shifts in their favor. Note that the Relative Strength Index is still in oversold territory and tries to move out of it, a fact which favors bullish moves and if these types of moves occur, the first resistance and target is located at 1.6950.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today and price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.

  3. #23
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    Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

    FOREX NEWS: NON FARM PAYROLLS – THE WEEK’S FINAL MARKET MOVER



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: The pair had mixed direction yesterday as the Euro was weakened by a disappointing value of the Consumer Price Index, but apparently the US Dollar wasn’t strong enough to take the pair significantly lower.

    Name:  2014.08.01-Non-Farm-Payrolls-the-weeks-final-market-mover-pic1-1024x479.jpg
Views: 163
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    Technical Outlook
    From a four-hour chart perspective the pair is in a clear downtrend but signs of weakness are present although the support at 1.3400 was broken and was tested from below several times (visible on the lower time frames). A sign of weakness is the fact that bears failed to break the low at 1.3366 even if 1.3400 turned into resistance; also, the Relative Strength Index spent a lot of time hugging the 30 level which suggests an oversold market. However, today’s direction will be decided by the fundamental rather than the technical aspect.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The day’s market moving event is the release of the US Non Farm Payrolls which is the most important jobs-related data for the US economy and tracks changes in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming sector. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 230K while last month’s number was 288K. Such a decrease would weaken the greenback and drive the pair higher.


    GBP/USD
    The Pound continued to lose ground to the US Dollar yesterday and we saw the bears in control for the most part of the day. Broken support was successfully re-tested from below and price bounced lower.

    Name:  2014.08.01-Non-Farm-Payrolls-the-weeks-final-market-mover-pic2-1024x479.jpg
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    Technical Outlook
    The Relative Strength Index is trading below the 30 level for an extended period of time and the short term downtrend is in need of a retracement higher. Yesterday’s low will most likely act as minor support and if today the bears don’t manage to break it, we will most likely see higher prices. The US Dollar will be highly affected by the NFP release and the technical aspect will be secondary.

    Fundamental Outlook
    United Kingdom’s Manufacturing PMI will be released today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to drop slightly from the previous 57.5 to 57.2. This survey is based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health so better than expected numbers will probably strengthen the Pound.

  4. #24
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    Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR WEAKENED BY EMPLOYMENT FIGURES. POUND AFFECTED BY CONSTRUCTION DATA


    EUR/USD
    Forex News: Friday’s main event was without a doubt the disappointing number shown by the US Non Farm Payrolls (actual 209K; expected 231K). As a result, the US Dollar weakened and the pair moved above resistance.

    Name:  2014.08.04-US-Dollar-weakened-by-employment-figures.-Pound-affected-by-Construction-data-pic1-10.jpg
Views: 134
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    Technical Outlook
    Today we expect a quiet day, with mostly ranging price action as the pair will probably take a “breather” after Friday’s strong move. However, the latest momentum favors the bulls and the first barrier in front of rising prices is located at 1.3445; support sits at 1.3400 but we don’t expect this level to be broken today.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The fundamental scene lacks major economic indicators today and this fact adds to our belief that price will not make any spectacular advances.


    GBP/USD
    The Pound was weakened Friday by a worse than anticipated Manufacturing PMI and that’s why the bulls couldn’t capitalize on the disappointing value of the US Non Farm Payrolls. The day belonged to the bears as price closed lower than the opening of the day.

    Name:  2014.08.04-US-Dollar-weakened-by-employment-figures.-Pound-affected-by-Construction-data-pic2-10.jpg
Views: 130
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    Technical Outlook
    Pound weakness continues to be seen and the bears continue to dominate although the US economy shows signs of contraction and the Relative Strength Index is trading below the 30 level for an extended period of time. First potential support is represented by Friday’s low (1.6809) but today’s price action will be mainly influenced by the value of the Construction PMI.

    Fundamental Outlook
    At 8:30 am GMT the day’s only notable indicator of the day is released: United Kingdom’s Construction PMI. This is a survey derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Construction sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. The anticipated value is 62.1 which is a decrease from the previous 62.6 and lower than expected numbers will most likely weaken the Pound further.

  5. #25
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    Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

    FOREX NEWS: ECONOMIC DATA BRINGS PRICE OUT OF MONDAY’S TIGHT RANGE



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session lacked volatility almost completely as the market took a “breather” after Friday’s stronger than usual movement. No economic indicators were released and this contributed to the ranging price action.

    Name:  2014.08.05-Economic-data-brings-price-out-of-Mondays-tight-range-pic1-1024x479.jpg
Views: 131
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    Technical Outlook
    The minor resistance created at 1.3445 wasn’t threatened yesterday but this will be the first barrier which the bulls need to break in order to weaken last month’s downtrend. Support is located at 1.3400 and until either one of the mentioned levels is broken, the market will remain in a ranging phase. For the time being our bias is neutral, expecting a breakout.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The Euro Zone Retail Sales change percentage is released today at 9:00 am GMT and expected o increase to 0.4% from the previous 0.0%. Higher numbers suggest increased economic activity and usually strengthen the Euro as the retail sector is a major part of the European economy.

    At 2:00 pm GMT the US Non Manufacturing PMI is released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers outside of the manufacturing sector about economic and business conditions. The expected value is 56.6, an increase from the previous 56.0 and under normal circumstances, higher than anticipated values are beneficial for the US Dollar.


    GBP/USD
    United Kingdom’s Construction PMI showed yesterday a slightly better than anticipated reading and as a result the Pound climbed but overall we had a slow trading day.

    Name:  2014.08.05-Economic-data-brings-price-out-of-Mondays-tight-range-pic2-1024x479.jpg
Views: 126
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    Technical Outlook
    For the time being the bulls lack the strength needed to reverse the medium term downtrend and we are likely to see another encounter with the support located at 1.6809. If this potential encounter will occur, and support will hold, price is likely to shoot up, considering the fact that the pair needs a bullish correction after such an extended drop as the one seen during the last month.

    Fundamental Outlook
    United Kingdom’s Services PMI is announced today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to increase from the previous 57.7 to 58.1. The indicator is an index derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector regarding current and future business conditions and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Readings above 50 indicate optimism and numbers above estimates usually strengthen the Pound, driving the pair higher.

  6. #26
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    Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR CONTINUES ITS ADVANCE. EURO BULLS FIGHT BACK



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: The US Dollar gained against most of its counterparts as yesterday’s reports showed improvements for the US economy and traders’ interest for the American currency was renewed.

    Name:  2014.08.06-US-Dollar-continues-its-advance.-Euro-bulls-fight-back-pic1-1024x479.jpg
Views: 126
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    Technical Outlook
    The pair fell for almost the entire day and the downtrend has new found strength as 1.3400 support was clearly broken. The next important support level is located at 1.3295 but the current level of 1.3365 is very likely to stop short term movement as we will probably see price stall here. The day ahead lacks major economic releases thus ranging price action might be in order.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The German Factory Orders are announced at 6:00 am GMT and expected to increase from -1.7% to 0.5%, a fact which would benefit the Euro; later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the US Trade Balance is released, showing the difference between imported and exported goods. The expected figure is -44.2B and values closer to zero will most likely strengthen the greenback. Both indicators usually have a medium-impact on the market but surprising numbers can increase their importance.


    GBP/USD
    United Kingdom’s Services PMI posted a better than expected value and momentarily strengthened the Pound; however, the rally couldn’t be continued and the Dollar erased some of the Pound’s early gains.

    Name:  2014.08.06-US-Dollar-continues-its-advance.-Euro-bulls-fight-back-pic2-1024x479.jpg
Views: 126
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    Technical Outlook
    The first logical place where downwards motion can be resumed is the resistance located at 1.6920, but considering the way the pair has been moving lately, we might see this resumption occur before the level is hit. The US Dollar is strong at the moment and bullish moves should be regarded as corrections, not reversals of the medium term downtrend. The first level of interest to the downside is 1.6809.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The main Pound-affecting event of the day is the release of the UK Manufacturing Production which is expected to change to 0.7% from last month’s -1.3%. The indicator measures change in the output produced by the manufacturing sector and is considered a high-impact indicator; the time of the release is 8:30 am GMT and better values will most likely strengthen the Pound.

  7. #27
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    Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

    FOREX NEWS: ECB PRESS CONFERENCE: THE DAY’S MOST INFLUENTIAL EVENT



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: The Euro dropped yesterday as the German Factory Orders showed an extremely disappointing figure, while demand for the US Dollar increased on the back of a better than expected value of the American Trade Balance.

    Name:  2014.08.07-ECB-Press-Conference-The-days-most-influential-event-pic1-1024x479.jpg
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    Technical Outlook
    After a brief stall at 1.3365 minor support, the pair resumed bearish price action and broke the level with relative ease. If this previous minor support will turn into resistance today (after a test from below, followed by a potential bounce lower), the next target will become the key level at 1.3295, but today price direction will be heavily influenced by Mario Draghi’s speech at the ECB Press Conference.

    Fundamental Outlook
    At 11:45 am GMT the ECB will announce their decision regarding the Interest Rate (no change is anticipated) but the real market mover will probably be the Press Conference held 45 minutes later. ECB President Mario Draghi will read a prepared statement and afterwards, he will answer journalists’ questions about monetary policy, rate changes and economic recovery plans. This second part of the Press Conference is usually the one that creates the highest volatility as traders around the world try to interpret Draghi’s attitude and answers. We recommend caution if trading at the time because price action can be erratic during the Conference.


    GBP/USD
    United Kingdom’s Manufacturing output showed a figure of 0.3%, lower than the anticipated 0.7%, a fact which weakened the Pound and allowed the US Dollar to resume the pair’s downwards movement.

    Name:  2014.08.07-ECB-Press-Conference-The-days-most-influential-event-pic2-1024x479.jpg
Views: 121
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    Technical Outlook
    Yesterday’s price action created minor resistance around 1.6885 and the first support is located at 1.6809. The medium term downtrend seems to be resumed but as a confirmation, the level at 1.6809 must be broken today. Bearish pressure is present and the Pound is weakened by the latest disappointing figures but a major role will be played today by the BOE decision regarding the interest rate.

    Fundamental Outlook
    At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate and although no changes are anticipated (currently the rate is set at 0.50%), the event is likely to generate some volatility. The outcome of the rate decision is somewhat known as almost all analysts expect it to remain unchanged but caution is recommended nonetheless.

  8. #28
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    Very interesting analysis , thank you .

  9. #29
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    Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

    FOREX NEWS: THE WEEK FINISHES WITH THE GREENBACK IN CONTROL



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: Yesterday’s ECB Press Conference generated mixed movement as the pair reversed direction several times. ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that rates in Europe will remain lower for a longer period than they will in the United States.

    Name:  2014.08.08-The-week-finishes-with-the-greenback-in-control-pic1-1024x477.jpg
Views: 116
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    Technical Outlook
    The Euro was weakened by Mario Draghi’s comments and this bearish momentum is likely to continue throughout today’s session. First support and barrier in front of falling prices is located in the zone around 1.3330 and a break would open the door for a move into the more important support located at 1.3295; first resistance is represented by the level at 1.3400.

    Fundamental Outlook
    Both the Euro and the US Dollar have a calm day ahead as far as economic news releases are concerned. Price action will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect.

    Name:  2014.08.08-The-week-finishes-with-the-greenback-in-control-pic2-1024x477.jpg
Views: 111
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    GBP/USD
    The Bank of England maintained the interest rate value unchanged and as a result the event didn’t create volatility or strong directional movement.

    Technical Outlook
    The pair remained confined between 1.6885 resistance and 1.6809 support. Today we are likely to see a breakout which will probably favor the bears, considering the fact that the medium term trend is down. The next major support is located at 1.6700 but we don’t expect such a distance to be traveled in one day even if 1.6809 is broken decisively; first resistance is represented by the top created around 1.6885.

    Fundamental Outlook
    United Kingdom’s Trade Balance is released today at 8:30 am GMT, showing the difference between imported and exported goods. The indicator is considered to have a mild impact but higher numbers than the anticipated -8.9B will most likely strengthen the Pound, driving the pair higher.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Abdul2012 View Post
    Very interesting analysis , thank you .
    Dear Abdul2012,

    Thanks for reading it. It is great to know that you like the analysis=)

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