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  1. #731
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    FOREX NEWS: FRANCE GETS A NEW PRESIDENT, EURO GETS A VOLATILITY BOOST



    EUR/USD

    Forex News: Friday the spotlight was on the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls that posted a figure of 211K, better than the anticipated 194K. However, last month’s number was revised from 98K to 79K and this was the main reason why the US Dollar weakened.

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    Technical Outlook

    The pair finished last week right on the psychological resistance located at 1.1000. If this level will be broken, we expect price to consolidate above it and then shoot up to 1.1100 – 1.1120 but this will not happen during the course of one day unless surprising events take place. If the level can’t be broken, the pair will probably move back into 1.0945 – 1.0950 zone but keep in mind that the Euro will be influenced by the French Election, so the technical aspect is secondary.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The German Factory Orders will be released today at 6:00 am GMT, expected to post a reading of 0.7% from the previous 3.4%. The report shows changes in the value of orders placed with manufacturers and acts as a leading indicator of production and economic activity, with higher numbers strengthening the Euro. The effect is often low to medium.

    French banks will be closed today in observance of Victory Day but the Presidential Election will probably trigger irregular price action and increased volatility.


    GBP/USD

    Friday the bulls continued the move started after the bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and managed to break the previous high located at 1.2965. Most of the US Dollar weakness was generated by the lower revision of last month’s NFP.

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    Technical Outlook

    The next resistance is located at 1.3050 and we expect the pair to retrace lower once it gets there. The level at 1.3000 is also an important hurdle and the Relative Strength Index is very close to overbought on H4 and Daily charts, so we might see a retracement lower when one of the mentioned levels is touched. That being said, as long as the pair is making higher highs and higher lows and is trading above the 50 EMA, we consider it in an uptrend so we favor the long side.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important economic indicators for today, so the pair’s direction will be mainly decided by the technical aspect.

  2. #732
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    FOREX NEWS: BEARISH PRESSURE ESCALATES, SUPPORT LEVELS THREATENED



    EUR/USD

    Forex News: The pair had a bearish session yesterday, on the back of a stronger US Dollar, boosted partly by higher than expected values posted by the JOLTS Job Openings.

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    Technical Outlook

    Price broke the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the support at 1.0900, showing strong bearish momentum, so we anticipate a move into 1.0850. At the time of writing the pair is showing rejection at the previous low (1.0875) but this hurdle will probably be taken out soon. If the support at 1.0850 is broken, we will probably see a move to close the weekly gap in the near future, but this scenario will be invalidated for now if price moves back above the 50 period EMA.

    Fundamental Outlook


    ECB President Mario Draghi will speak today at the Dutch House of Representatives, about the impact of monetary policy. The effect of this speech is not known but as usual, caution should be used whenever heads of central banks speak publicly. The scheduled time is 12:00 pm GMT.


    GBP/USD

    The pair had a mixed session yesterday, first dropping into support and then bouncing higher from the confluence zone created by the 50 EMA and the level at 1.2905. For now the pair is still in an uptrend but bearish pressure has increased.

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    Technical Outlook


    Price is facing an important support zone created by the Exponential Moving Average and the level at 1.2905. Judging by yesterday’s trading session, price is reacting to this zone because it moved higher immediately after touching it, but as long as the pair stays below 1.2965, we expect a drop through this zone and into 1.2855 – 1.2850. The oscillators are showing good downside momentum and are not oversold, further increasing our bearish bias; however, keep in mind that we are still in an uptrend, so the possibility of a move up shouldn’t be ruled out.

    Fundamental Outlook


    The Pound has another light day in terms of economic releases, but this doesn’t mean that the pair will have a slow trading day; however, the technical aspect will prevail.

  3. #733
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    FOREX NEWS: POUND IN THE SPOTLIGHT: BOE INTEREST RATE, INFLATION REPORT AND MONETARY POLICY SUMMARY



    EUR/USD

    Forex News: The speech of ECB President Draghi was shifted an hour earlier than initially scheduled but the Euro remained mostly unfazed by the event and was stuck in 40 pip range for the most part of yesterday’s trading session.

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    Technical Outlook

    Although movement was slow yesterday, the pair remained below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and broke the previous low at 1.0875. These are bearish signs, which make us anticipate a break of 1.0850 in the short term, followed by an extended move to the downside, possibly to the place where the bullish gap originated. This scenario is valid as long as the pair remains below the 50 period EMA.

    Fundamental Outlook


    At 12:30 pm GMT the United States Producer Price Index comes out, showing changes in the price charged by producers for their goods. The index acts as a leading indicator of inflation because a higher producer price usually means that consumer prices will increase. The forecast is a change of 0.2% (previous -0.1%) and higher values tend to strengthen the US Dollar but often the impact is limited if the actual number matches expectations.


    GBP/USD

    The Cable had another close encounter with the resistance at 1.2990 but immediately bounced lower, thus offering more hints that the uptrend is starting to fade.

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    Technical Outlook


    The bulls failed to take out 1.2990 resistance but the pair is still trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, so the bias is not yet bearish. Once (and if) the 50 EMA is broken, we expect price to move below 1.2905 and closer to 1.2855 but it must be noted that today is an important day for the Pound, due to multiple Bank of England releases. The technical aspect will be secondary and the pair’s direction will be mostly decided by the fundamentals.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will release the Monetary Policy Summary, containing their interest rate decision as well as the breakdown of the rate votes and commentary about the reasons that influenced the votes. The rate is not expected to change (currently 0.25%) but if the Summary contains hints about future changes, volatility will increase on all Pound pairs.

    At the same time the BoE will release the Inflation Report, containing their economic and inflation predictions for the next 2 years. This is yet another reason for increased volatility so the Pound is likely to have a busy day ahead.

  4. #734
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    FOREX NEWS: FOCUS SHIFTS ON THE US DOLLAR: U.S. RETAIL SALES AND INFLATION DATA



    EUR/USD

    Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bears, who managed to test 1.0850 support, partly helped by a better than expected value of the U.S. Producer Price Index.

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    Technical Outlook

    The pair is slowly making its way lower but the support at 1.0850 is still not broken and can reject price higher. The short term bias is bearish, anticipating a move into 1.0800 and a closing of the gap later on. A move above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average would invalidate our bearish scenario for the time being and keep in mind that today the US Dollar will be affected by important releases so the technical side will be secondary.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Consumer Price Index is released, showing changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase. The expected value is 0.3% and because the indicator has inflationary implications, higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar.

    At the same time another important indicator comes out: the U.S. Retail Sales, expected to show a change of 0.6% from the previous -0.2%. Sales made at retail level represent the main part of consumer spending, which in turn accounts for the major part of economic activity, so higher numbers can also strengthen the U.S. Dollar.


    GBP/USD

    The Bank of England kept the rate unchanged as expected but the Monetary Policy Summary and Governor Carney’s press conference triggered a boost of volatility and moved the pair into key support.

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    Technical Outlook


    The pair has moved strongly below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and is now facing a key level at 1.2855 (1.2850). We will probably see some sort of rejection here, but the extent should be limited and followed by a break of the mentioned support, if the pair will remain below the 50 period EMA and below 1.2900. Also keep in mind that the US Dollar will be affected by important economic releases that will play a major role for today’s price direction.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound doesn’t have anything major on the economic calendar, so the pair’s movement will be mainly influenced by the USD releases and the technical aspect.

  5. #735
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    FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT HOLDS, BULLS STEP BACK INTO THE GAME



    EUR/USD

    Forex News: U.S. Consumer Price Index disappointed Friday by showing a change of only 0.2% (forecast 0.3%), but also the Retail Sales showed a 0.4% change compared to the expected 0.6%. All this combined with rumours of ECB tapering the QE, triggered a strong move up.

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    Technical Outlook

    Friday’s move up was fast and strong and broke the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the upside, thus making the short term bias bullish. However, it must be noted that usually, moves like this one are followed by a counter move or a period of stagnation so we might see a descent into 1.0900 and the 50 EMA. If this support zone holds, the next destination will be 1.0950.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today there are no major releases scheduled for either the US Dollar or the Euro, so the technical aspect will prevail and will be the main market mover.


    GBP/USD

    Friday the pair bounced at support following weak U.S. CPI and Retail Sales data but the bullish advances weren’t substantial and overall we had a slow session, below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

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    Technical Outlook

    The support at 1.2855 (1.2850) rejected price twice during the recent period and this may be an indication that the bears lack the strength to clearly end the uptrend. The upside is capped by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and as long as the pair is trading between these two barriers, our short term bias is neutral. A strong break will be probably followed by an extended move in that direction.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Similar to the United States and the rest of Europe, the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases, so the technical side will decide the pair’s direction.

  6. #736
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    FOREX NEWS: POUND AFFECTED BY INFLATION DATA, STRONG MOVES AHEAD



    EUR/USD

    Forex News: The pair remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average yesterday and had a strongly bullish session, without retracing lower. No major economic indicators were released, so most of the move was technical.

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    Technical Outlook

    Yesterday’s move easily broke through 1.0950 resistance and came very close to 1.1000 psychological level, bringing the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic in overbought territory. The overextended position of the pair calls for a retracement lower (possibly into the 50 period EMA) although the bias is bullish for the medium term. However, it should be noted that from a longer term perspective the pair is still in a range.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 9:00 am GMT the Euro will be affected by the release of the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product, which is the main gauge of economic performance across the European Union. The forecast is a change of 0.5% and usually the release has a stronger impact if the actual number differs from expectations. Higher values strengthen the currency.

    At the same time the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released, showing the opinions of about 275 German professional investors and analysts about the state of the German economy. It acts as a leading indicator of optimism and economic health, and higher numbers than the forecast 22.3 are usually beneficial for the Euro.


    GBP/USD

    The pair had a slower session than the EUR/USD but maintained a bullish bias and managed to climb above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.2905 resistance. The economic scene was calm, without major releases.

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    Technical Outlook

    If the current move above the 50 period EMA and 1.2905 can be sustained, the pair is likely to climb into 1.2965 in the near future. A break below the EMA and 1.2905 will open the door for 1.2855, a level which proved a strong support in the past and may reject falling prices higher. The oscillators are showing good bullish momentum, without being overbought, thus increasing the chances of an extended move north.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 8:30 am GMT we take a look at the always important British CPI, which is the main gauge of inflation in the UK. The indicator measures changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase and usually strengthens the Pound if it posts a reading above the forecast, which for today is 2.6% (previous 2.3%).

  7. #737
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    FOREX NEWS: EURO POPS HIGHER. THE BULLS RUN THE SHOW



    EUR/USD

    Forex News: The pair climbed for more than 100 pips yesterday, without retracing lower and the bulls scored a major victory by taking price way above 1.1000 psychological level.

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    Technical Outlook

    At the time of writing the pair was hovering around the 1.1080 mark, after a strongly bullish session during which the pair moved straight up. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are both extremely overbought and this calls for a retracement lower but the overall picture is bullish and we expect to see a move into the next area of resistance, located at 1.1100 – 1.1120.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 9:00 am GMT we take a look at European inflation with the release of the Final version of the Consumer Price Index. This is the last version and tends to have the lowest impact but it shouldn’t be overlooked because it can generate increased volatility. The forecast for today is 1.9% and usually a higher number strengthens the Euro.


    GBP/USD

    British inflation showed a better than expected value but this created just a quick spike up, followed by a drop and by another move that almost erased the earlier dip. Overall we had mixed movement, without a clear bias.

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    Technical Outlook

    It looks like the pair is stuck in a range and control doesn’t clearly belong to either side. Lately price doesn’t react to the level at 1.2900 and we saw it breached several times, so the boundaries of the range are 1.2855 as support and 1.2990 as resistance. Until the pair exits one of these boundaries, we expect more of this choppy movement, without a clear winner. The oscillators lack momentum and the 50 period EMA is flat, further showing the ranging state of the pair.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British Average Earnings Index comes out at 8:30 am GMT, showing changes in the price that businesses pay for labor. If people are paid more, they tend to spend more, thus boosting consumer spending and this leads to increased economic activity and usually a stronger Pound. Today’s forecast is a change of 2.4%, while the previous was 2.3%.

  8. #738
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    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TAKES A BIG HIT. ALL EYES ON POUND FOR RETAIL SALES RELEASE



    EUR/USD

    Forex News: The Euro continued to strengthen and the pair showed another bullish session, moving above the long term resistance located at 1.1120. Despite the overextended condition of the pair, the buyers remained in control.

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    Technical Outlook

    Since the latest move up started, only one candle was bearish and the pair climbed strongly, without any form of retracement lower. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are extremely overbought and this would normally call for a pullback but the US Dollar totally lacks strength, making us anticipate further advances north for the pair. The previous resistance at 1.1120 – 1.1100 may turn into support, while to the upside the next level of importance is 1.1240.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Unemployment Claims are released, showing the number of people who asked for unemployment related benefits. A higher number than the forecast 240K usually weakens the US Dollar and the opposite is true for a lower number but this indicator has a low-to-medium impact, mostly because it is released every week.


    GBP/USD

    British jobs data matched analysts’ expectations but US Dollar selling pushed the pair higher, into the top of the channel, at 1.2990.

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    Technical Outlook

    The pair is facing a strong resistance at 1.2990 – 1.3000. If this area can be surpassed, we expect to see a move into 1.3050, followed by 1.3100 but we cannot rule out a bounce lower from the current resistance. However, the weakness showed by the US Dollar against most of its counterparts makes us anticipate a break of the level and a continuation higher.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British Retail Sales are today’s highlight, released at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a change of 1.2% compared to the previous -1.8%. Sales made at retail levels represent the major part of consumer spending and usually a higher number strengthens the currency, because it shows increased economic activity.

  9. #739
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    FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE REACHED, RETRACEMENTS UNDERWAY



    EUR/USD

    Forex News: Yesterday the bulls pushed the pair higher, reaching a high at 1.1170. The U.S. Unemployment Claims showed a better than expected number, contributing to a limited extent to a pullback that tested 1.1120.

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    Technical Outlook

    The pair retraced and breached the previous resistance at 1.1120 but at the moment this level can be considered support because rejection here is present (candles have long wicks in both their upper and lower sides). The bias remains clearly bullish and we expect further advances, with 1.1170 as first target, followed by 1.1240. Even if the pair breaks 1.1120 to the downside, the extent of the move lower should be limited.

    Fundamental Outlook

    There are no major economic releases scheduled for the last day of the trading week, so we expect price action to remain driven by the technical aspect.


    GBP/USD

    Yesterday the Pound benefited from a much better reading for the British Retail Sales (expected 1.2%, actual 2.3%) and this was the main catalyst for a move into key resistance at 1.3050.

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    Technical Outlook


    The pair has reached an important resistance level at 1.3050 and now the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are approaching overbought levels. This is not a sure indication that price will bounce lower from here, because as seen numerous times before, price can continue higher or lower despite overbought or oversold levels. However, if we get a bounce south, this move will encounter support at 1.2990 followed by 1.2965. To the upside, a break of 1.3050 will make 1.3090 the immediate target.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected by economic indicators today, so the main focus will be on the technical side.

  10. #740
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    FOREX NEWS: BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS. STRONG RESISTANCE AHEAD



    EUR/USD

    Forex News: Friday the buyers remained in control, taking the pair above the previous top at 1.1170. The economic scene was calm, without major releases and most of the move was technical.

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    Technical Outlook

    After establishing a low at 1.1075 the pair started to move up, resuming the uptrend and breaking 1.1170. The first upper target is located at 1.1240 but it must be noted that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing bearish divergence, which is present when price is making a higher high and the oscillator is making a lower high. This divergence and the overbought condition of the RSI are early warnings that price may bounce lower but overall the picture remains bullish.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The day’s only notable event is the Eurogroup Meeting, attended by Finance Ministers from the Euro Area member states, as well as other personalities from the political and financial scene. The impact on the currency varies depending on the matters discussed, but caution should be used throughout the day.


    GBP/USD

    Friday the pair erased an earlier drop occurred Thursday and moved back into the resistance at 1.3050. The bias is still bullish but bearish pressure has increased.

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    Technical Outlook

    The sudden drop after the first encounter with 1.3050 resistance is a warning sign that the uptrend may be coming to a stop or at least that it is weaker than before. However, the bearish move was completely erased, so the bulls still have enough “juice” for a break of 1.3050; if that happens, the next key level is located at 1.3430 but it’s way too far to be reached during one day. A bounce at 1.3050 will probably take the pair into 1.2990 but our bias for today is mostly neutral.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound will not be affected today by major economic releases but United Kingdom representatives will attend the Eurogroup Meetings and this could generate increased volatility.

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