FOREX NEWS: IT’S NFP DAY. EXPECT FIREWORKS!
EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday after an initial drop that touched the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average, the bulls stepped in and took the pair very close to the recent resistance at 1.0950. The session was bullish but the pair is still in a range.
Technical Outlook
The bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average shows that the US Dollar is not yet strong enough to take the pair significantly lower. On the other hand, the bullish move seen yesterday shows that upwards pressure has increased and that we will probably see a move into 1.1000 psychological level if 1.0950 can be broken. Keep in mind that today the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary to the fundamental, due to the important U.S. jobs data release.
Fundamental Outlook
Today the spotlight will be on the US Dollar for the release of what is considered the most important employment data: the Non-Farm Employment Change (aka Non-Farm Payrolls). The scheduled time is 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 194K, much higher than last month’s 98K. Higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar but keep an eye on the Average Hourly Earnings released at the same time because lately this indicator seems to gain a lot of importance. If people are paid more for their work, they tend to spend more and this ultimately increases economic activity, strengthening the US Dollar as well. The expected change is 0.3%, while the previous was 0.2%.
Round two of the French Presidential Election will take place Sunday and this will most likely affect price on Monday’s opening but possibly also today.
GBP/USD
The British Services PMI showed a reading of 55.8, higher than the expected 54.6 and this was part of the reason why the pair had another bullish session, reversing an early drop below support.
Technical Outlook
The failed break of the support at 1.2855 and the move back above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average shows increased bullish pressure and makes us anticipate a move into 1.2965. Another move below the 50 EMA and 1.2855 would invalidate the bullish scenario and would open the door for a move into 1.2770; however, this is a less likely scenario. Price behaviour will be strongly affected by the fundamental side today and we may experience irregular movement.
Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today, so the pair will be mainly influenced by the U.S. employment data and by the technical aspect.