GBP/USD likely direction - Page 2
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  1. #11
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Blackpool North West England
    LONG here at 1.6482

    STOP 1.6458

    Risk 24 pips.

  2. #12
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Blackpool North West England
    Here's a quick lesson in trendlines.

    I've been trading since 2005 and I quickly discovered the magic of trendlines.

    Take any chart on any time frame and you will find trendlines. I find trendlines to be the most amazing feature of trading. They can confirm or negate a trade and have no logical explanation other than harmonics. The website I'm developing will have a large section on harmonics as they can be key to understanding price movement.

    I refer to trendlines as "honest" or "dishonest".

    A dishonest trendline is any 2 points on a chart as below.
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    2 points on a trendline is unconfirmed. There's a good chance that this trendline will be touched again sometime in the future and if it does it will become "honest".

    If it doesn't then its just a line on the chart.

    Analyzing GBP/USD today we have the formation of a potential honest trendline. I say potential as we don't yet know if this 3 touch of the trendline will hold.

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    If the price does indeed move north from this line and GBP strengthens we can keep this line on the chart and if at sometime in the future, GBP resumes its downward direction (which is likely) we will need to see if the price bounces from the line or goes through it.

    If the line fails then we can look to SHORT GBP/USD.

    If price bounces then we can look for a LONG position.
    Last edited by forexportal; 09-03-2014 at 06:53 AM.

  3. #13
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Blackpool North West England
    LONG from 1.6482

    STOP adjusted to 1.6440 - risk now 42 pips.

    Worth extending the STOP on this trade with MS1 and potential trendline support.

    RSI on lower timeframes very oversold.
    Last edited by forexportal; 09-03-2014 at 07:37 AM.

  4. #14
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Blackpool North West England

    Getting the STOPS right on a trade is a difficult skill. Sometimes the STOPS are obvious and you can get away with a 10 pip stop if the price has reached a support/resistance line but if you are in a support/resistance area then you need to adjust the STOP depending on what the market is doing.

    Yesterday I went LONG GBP/USD 1.6482 with a STOP at 1.6458. The trade went against me and it was clear that 1.6458 was going to be hit. At this point you have a choice. Do you let you STOP be hit or if there is a support area further down, let the price hit that area.

    As a further support area lay 20 pips beneath 1.6458 I reset the STOP to 1.6440. Price continued to head south but the price action suggested that the BEARS were weakening and the BULLS were gathering strength.

    Beneath 1.6432 there was no further support so that became the line in the sand for this trade so I changed the STOP to 1.6432

    Over the last 16 hours the price has moved away from the trendline support leaving a definite STOP are at 1.6437.
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    So my GBP LONG from 1.6482 has definitive STOP at 1.6438 for a 44 pip risk which is more than I usually use but sometimes a bigger STOP cannot be avoided.

    Today is a news heavy day for the GBP with Asset Purchase Facility, Official Bank Rate and MPC Rate Statement coming in at 12:00 followed by USD Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims at 13:30 followed by USD ISM numbers at 15:00.

    These are all certain to set GBP/USd moving in one direction or another until we wait for the big one tomorrow - Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate which will set GBP/USD direction for the foreseeable future.
    Last edited by forexportal; 09-04-2014 at 04:44 AM.

  5. #15
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Blackpool North West England

    My starting point for chart analysis is the Daily time frame. On the DTF my first action is to place Fibonacci points across the highs and lows.

    Earlier this week when GBP/USD was at 1.6453 area I posted this:-

    GBP/USD is now at the last chartable support point before the 61.8 fib at 1.6282
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    As can be seen the move down by GBP/USD has hit the 61.8 exactly and as I type this has moved away.

    This presents a number of trading possibilities and options however the waters are muddied because at 13:30 we have the most significant news release of the month - Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate out of the USA.

    Had this been a non news day reaching such a significant point on the chart (61.8 fib or 38.2 fib depending on how you set the Fib) then you would have been advised to exit SHORTS here.

    The area would also present an ideal opportunity to go LONG with a stop just below the Fib area.

    It also presents an opportunity to SHORT the GBP/USD if the 1.6280 line is broken.

    With such significant news however coming up, spreads will widen and STOPS could be whipsawed out.

    The expectation is for a surprise to the good for these numbers and its likely that recent USD strength has factored this in.
    What this means is if the numbers are only marginally better than expected or actually miss target there's likely to be some sustained USD selling which will benefit GBP LONGS.

    If you're not in this market I'd wait until the news comes out and evaluate accordingly.

  6. #16
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Blackpool North West England
    NFP Update.

    Non-Farm Employment change was expected 226k but missed by some margin at 142k.

    This has sent GBP/USD BULLISH since the news was released but progress has been weak.

    Clearly the GBP BEARS still expect to take control of this pair once the BULL fightback weakens. 1.6386 where the 50 sma comes in on the 5m is the most likely point where the BEARS may launch a response.

    I expect GBP to track north from here until we reach this area.

    Having said that there is overall GBP weakness so staying out of the market is advised although LONG from here (1.6331) with a STOP at 1.6306 is possible for the adventurous (25 pip risk)
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  7. #17
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Blackpool North West England
    Fridays bullish hammer close would have given GBP BULLS some hope that there may be a reversal in the relentless selling of GBP/USD and without news at the weekend the chances were that GBP would have opened higher.

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    YouGov changed all that.

    Their poll suggesting the YES camp had taken a narrow lead in the Scottish Referendum (51% 49%) was enough to seriously spook the market and sent GBP/USD into a tail spin and it gapped lower on the open last night.

    So where to from here.

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    Its well known in trading that markets don't like gaps and there may be an attempt to close this gap on GBP/USD over the next few hours.

    The gap currently is 100 pips.

    In the absence of any further direct GBP news and with RSI oversold and MACD turning north, GBP could attempt to reverse this knee jerk GBP move.

    1.6284 is key. This is the 61.8 support turned resistance.

    My guess would be price will head for this area. A LONG here (1.6174) with a STOP (1.6140) underneath the low is worth considering for a 34 pip risk.

    (* Please ignore the screen shot below . I'm not sure where its come from as its from a post I made last week and I can't get rid of it).
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Last edited by forexportal; 09-08-2014 at 04:15 AM.

  8. #18
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Blackpool North West England
    In my last post I said that GBP/USD would attempt to close the gap that occurred as GBP/USD opened after the YouGov pole that was so damaging to GBP BULLS.

    As it turned out the BEARS forced the price down a further 100 pips and the price hit my recommended BUY target at 1.6051 that I posted on my website on the 8th September. That LONG is currently 101 pips in profit with a STOP at 1.6152 though I expect the BULLS to drive the price higher yet.
    I added to my LONGS at 1.6139 and both these trades have the same 1.6152 STOP.

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    The 1.6286 61.8 fibonacci may prove tough resistance but I expect GBP BULLS to take the price up to 1.6311 before we see a meaningful reversal.

    The hourly 200 sma could prove pivotal for GBP/USD. If the price can break through this area (1.6314-1.6350) then 1.6600 is a possibility.

    However. GBP is particularly news sensitive and literally any incautious word can destroy any analysis.

  9. #19
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Blackpool North West England

    Default Mind the Gap

    As suggested previously Monday's opening is being closed by GBP BULLS.

    With the latest polls on the Scottish Referendum suggesting a narrow victory for the NO campaign I can see no reason why GBP/USD shouldn't strengthen from here.

    1.6286 is the 61.8 fib which will most likely send the BULLS back but this should only be temporary.

    1.6320-7 area is likely to be tougher as this is the 200 sma.

    The BULLS will need to break this moving average, return to it to test it and then drive north.

    I'm LONG from 1.6051 as recommended on my website and LONG from 1.6137 as recommended on my Twitter feed.

    My STOPS are both 1.6184 (+127 +47).
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  10. #20
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Blackpool North West England
    Just a quick note on the Scottish Referendum.

    This will present a golden opportunity to make many pips. My website will be detailing the best approach as we nearer the vote but my plan would be to get LONG on the assumption of a NO vote.

    The latest survey had 47.6% planning to vote YES against 42.4% planning to vote NO with 10% undecided.

    Forget the YES and NO voters and look at the undecided.

    Human nature dictates that if you're are not sure about something - you won't change it. Historically undecided voters nearly ALWAYS vote in favour of what they know rather than take a leap of faith and vote for an uncertain future. You can expect these 10% to vote 9/1 in favour of NO change which will lead to a heavy defeat for the YES campaign.

    I expect the polls to widen in favour of the NO campaign over the next week.

    A NO vote will send the GBP to the stars.

    Be ready for it.

    More on my website.

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