GBP/USD likely direction - Page 3
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  1. #21
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    Its taken all week but GBP/USD has all but closed the gap from Mondays open. My GBP/USD LONGS were STOPPED out for +155 and +69. These STOPs were victims of market uncertainty before a new Scottish Referendum poll that revealed the gap between the YES and NO camp had narrowed on the face of it but its not how I saw it.

    This poll gave strength to my belief that there will be a resounding NO vote come the 18th. The number of "don't know's" went from 10% to 17%. I'm fairly certain that these were YES voters who had shifted their position to neutral.

    As a consequence I re-entered LONG GBP/USD at 1.6227 with a 30 pip STOP.

    I fully expect the GBP to strengthen from here. I suspect that a NO vote will give GBP an inevitable boost but as the poll draws closer I believe the market is already factoring in this eventuality.

    Should, however, there be a YES vote then expect Sterling to plummet.

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  2. #22
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    GBP/USD is now supported by the 100 sma and is attempting to break down the 200sma.
    The 1 hour 200 sma is arguably one of the most important indicators on any chart and BEARS will usually defend this line strongly. So far the BULLS haven't been repulsed which suggests there's more GBP strength to come.

    Last weeks opening gap hasn't been completely filled which also suggests there's more to come from the GBP BULLS.
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    The DAILY 61.8 fib lies at 1.6285. If GBP/USD can defeat the 200 sma AND get through this fib. then we could see be seeing a substantial GBP rally.

    If this position can be held into the early hours of Friday when we'll know the outcome of the referendum, there's no reason why GBP can't return to 1.72 as long as we get a NO vote which is what I expect.

  3. #23
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    The 200 sma proved too strong for the GBP BULLS and price is now clearly being held down by it. We are however now in what I call an SMA squeeze. Here the 200 sma 100 sma and the 50 sma are all converging and they are in their "correct" order for a BULL breakout (50sma at the top 100sma in the middle and 200 sma below).

    If the Scottish Referendum wasn't on Thursday a LONG here at 1.6200 with a STOP @ 1.6155 (45 pip risk) could be attempted but its risky.

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    If the price can break the 200 sma on the 5m chart then return to it to test it and head back north it may be worth going long with a 15 pip STOP from 1.6200
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    What I'm trying to do here is get LONG BEFORE the Scottish vote and hopefully get a b/e trade in order to maximize the benefits of a NO vote.

  4. #24
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    As I'd hoped the price took out the 200 sma on the 5m chart and returned to "test" it. This is always a good trading signal if resistance turns support.
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    I entered this trade LONG at 1.6213 with a 35 pip STOP that I've now adjusted to 1.6224 for a 13+ pip gain at worst.

    I'm hoping this is the start of some sustained GBP buying and I can keep this trade open until the results of the Scottish Referendum are known. A NO vote should accelerate this position by 100+ pips and we could then be looking at GBP heading towards 1.66 and above.

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  5. #25
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    My GBP/USD LONG from 1.6213 is approaching an area of strong resistance. I'd like to hold this position into the Scottish Referendum but 1.6338 may prove too tough a barrier for GBP BULLS. The story is further complicated by a raft of numbers out shortly (Average Earnings, Claimant Count and MPC votes).
    I think I'll tighten the STOPS on this trade to 1.6280 (61.8 fib) or higher and see if the news is BULLISH.

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  6. #26
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    GBP/USD LONG

    STOPS moved to 1.6302 (+89)

  7. #27
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    Many times trading Forex you just can't win. The numbers released at 09:30 ALL beat expectation and this should have boosted GBP BULLS, instead it sold off.
    The only explanation for this has to be the Bank Rate Voting which I can only assume the markets were hoping for a another dove to leave and join the hawks. It seems a bit churlish that that was enough to weaken the GBP but there you have it and my STOP has been hit.
    I'll be looking to re-enter this market LONG possibly in the 1.6281 area if we get there. If the price doesn't get that far then if the BULLS can clear resistance at 1.6338 and return to it and test it for support , i'll look to BUY.
    Last edited by forexportal; 09-17-2014 at 04:49 AM.

  8. #28
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    Over the last year, the run up to the mid-July high was full of peaks that were 700-900 pips above the 200-day moving average. Now that the price has fallen below the 200-day moving average, we are in a bearish situation. The price is only 530 pips below the 200-day moving average. I am only taking shorts so long as we are below that average. I am set to go short at a break below the current 3-day low of 1.6160. With that, I will groom my stop win-or-lose along the 3-day high till it is hit. If we get a long move lower I will stop grooming along the 3-day high when the 7-day high passes into profitable territory and follow it win-or-lose until it is hit.

  9. #29
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    It appears as if GBP BULLS are making another assault on the 1.6338 area.
    The 61.8 fib has been cleared at 1.633.88 and the MA's are widening as anticipated.

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    If the BULLS can clear 1.6338 and subsequently defend it I'll go LONG with a STOP below 1.6338 in the 1.6330 area.

  10. #30
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    The last opinion poll on the Scottish Referendum gave the NO camp a healthy lead.

    Price action suggested that the 1.6338 barrier would be overwhelmed by the BULLS so I went LONG at 1.6335 with a 12 pip STOP.

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    The news at 13:30 hasn't hurt the GBP/USD so I expect this pair to head north for the foreseeable future.

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    Increasingly a NO vote is being priced into the market so when the result comes tomorrow morning I don't expect a major move (unless its a YES vote).

    There's no reason why GBP/USD can't recover 1.70 from this position.

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