GBP/USD likely direction
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  1. #1
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    Default GBP/USD likely direction

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    Its hard to see anything BULLISH about GBP/USD.

    All the signs are pointing to further weakness.

    No direct GBP news this week but USD New Home Sales, Core Durable Goods, CB Consumer Confidence, GDP, Unemployment Claims and Pending Home Sales will all affect GBP/USD short term direction but overall the direction is bearish.

  2. #2
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    GBP/USD Trade suggestion.


    SELL @ 1.6678 STOP 1.6720

    BUY @ 1.6479 STOP 1.6435

    Please check the website for instructions on how to use these signals.

    Be mindful of news.

    If these targets are broken at news time you will have to watch the price to see if these levels will reverse.

    There is no significant GBP news on the calendar this week but there are plenty of USD news releases.

    In particular watch Prelim GDP and Unemployment claims on Thursday at 13:30

  3. #3
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    GBP/USD 25th August - 29th August

    GBP has steadied the ship over the last week but formidable hurdles lie ahead for GBP BULLS.
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    This is a GBP news heavy week with the PMI numbers out (Manufacturing PMI Monday, Construction PMI Tuesday and Services PMI Wednesday) as well as Asset Purchase, Bank Rate and MPC Statement Thursday.

    If this spread of news is on balance BULLISH expect GBP/USD to head for 1.6677.
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    There is formidable resistance at 1.6677 and SELLERS will be waiting to pounce. This area coincides with the 200 sma on DTF, previous resistance and the Weekly R1 pivot.

    If GBP/USD breaks through 1.6677 and stays above it then GBP BULLS may well have resumed control of the pair.

    If on the other hand GBP news misses and price is taken through 1.6530 then we are looking at 1.6286 support.

    I shall update my analysis after 09:30 Monday after the Manufacturing PMI numbers.
    Last edited by Pipzilla; 08-31-2014 at 10:30 AM. Reason: Advertising

  4. #4
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    As I post this we are 30 minutes before the UK Manufacturing PMI numbers.
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    1.6678 is a key area for GBP/USD. The 200 day sma comes in here on the daily time frame. If UK Manu PMI beat target this resistance could break. In order to trade this, best advice is to see what happens when the price reaches here. If the price surges through then wait for a pull back to the 50 sma on the 5m chart and if that holds then go long with a STOP at 1.6670.

    If the PMI numbers miss then look to buy GBP/USD if the price hits 1.6545 with a STOP at 1.6525.
    Last edited by Pipzilla; 09-01-2014 at 05:04 AM. Reason: Advertising

  5. #5
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    The UK Manufacturing PMI numbers missed but GBP/USD appears to be consolidating above the 200 sma on the 1HTF. My guess would be the price will drift higher. Best advice stay out of the market until we near 1.6670+ area and see what happens.

  6. #6
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    Price has found support at Fridays high and is moving north. LONG from here (1.6612) with a tight STOP (1.6602) is worth taking. Target would be resistance at 1.6672
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  7. #7
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    Name:  Ashampoo_Snap_2014.09.01_19h27m58s_027_.jpg
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    With CAD and USD on Bank Holiday volumes are thin and trading is slow.

    This speculative GBP/USD long is treading water and has threatened the STOP at 1.6602 but is now moving north again.

    Its impossible to work out GBP/USD's direction though I still favour LONGS.
    Last edited by Pipzilla; 09-01-2014 at 02:43 PM. Reason: Solicitation

  8. #8
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    Attachment 65510
    Overnight GBP BULLS have had to retreat in order to push north.

    I adjusted my STOP on my GBP/USD LONG for -5 pip loss.

    Depending on what happens at 9:30 when GBP Construction MPI number are released I'll either look to go LONG with a favourable number or wait for price to either hit 1.6545 support and look to go LONG here or see what happens as price hits the 76.4 fib where the BEARS took control yesterday. If the 76.4 fib is taken out 1.6672 is the next area of strong resistance

  9. #9
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    Name:  Ashampoo_Snap_2014.09.02_15h12m09s_002_.jpg
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    Its never a good sign when positive news leads to a currency selling off.

    This morning the Construction PMI numbers came out at 64.0 against expected 61.5.

    This would normally have been good for a 60 pip bounce at least but after a short trip north the GBP/USD sold off.

    This tells you how weak the GBP is currently.

    1.6502 offer some support. If prices bounce here and can break and hold above the 200 sma then I'll look at going LONG.
    Last edited by forexportal; 09-03-2014 at 06:20 AM.

  10. #10
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    The relentless 12 month move of GBP/USD from June 2013 to July 2014 has clearly stalled at 1.7189 and is in retreat.
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    The move was 2383 pips and 723 of those pips have been given back.

    GBP/USD is now at the last chartable support point before the 61.8 fib at 1.6282

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    The MACD and RSI (oversold) suggests GBP may make a move north from these support levels. If the Services PMI beat expectation GBP may gain ground but the fundamentals with a possible Fed rate increase around the corner will limit any gains.

    The market may tread water until tomorrows key Asset Purchase and MPC rate statement but GBP is looking mildly bullish so far this morning

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