AceTraderFx Oct 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

20 Oct 2014[/B] [I]08:43GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ......  BoJ Nagoya branch manager was quoted saying 'many firms in Tokai central Japan region feel rapid fx moves, whether it's yen rise or fall, are undesirable; hard to judge now how recent choppy yen moves affect economy in Tokai region.'

Earlier, comments by Japan’s junior coalition party Komeito official, quote:
don’t expect gov’t to resort to FX manipulation to correct yen weakening; excessive yen weakness wud be unwelcome, nagtive eefects emerging in economy; extra budget needed to deal with stalling economy regardless of decision on next sales tax hike.

Dlr finally pares intra-day gain after opening high abv Fri’s 106.95 top to 107.27 in NZ, then climbing to session high of 107.39 in Tokyo as a sharp rally in the Nikkei boosted risk sentiment (Nikke closed up by 578 points at 15111). However, present retreat in the Nikkei futures in Europe (down 80 points at 14040) triggered broad-based buying of yen, price retreated to 107.05, suggesting sideways trading is in store.
Offers are tipped at 107.30/40 n more abv with stops abv 107.50. Initial bids are noted at 107.00/106.90 with some stops below there, however, more buying interest is touted at 106.70/60, suggesting buying dlr on dips is still favoured.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

21 Oct 2014[/B] 01:30GMT

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - 106.78.. In total stark contrast to yesterday's biddish tone in Tokyo session, dlr remains under pressure in Tokyo morning as renewed weakness in global stocks on Mon pushed the Nikkei in the red (N225 index currently down 92 points at 15019 after yesterday's spectacular 578-points rally to 15111, being the strongest rise in over a year).  

Light stops were tripped after dlr met renewed selling at 107.01 n briefly penetrated NY low of 106.79 to 106.70. The lack of a recovery suggests intra-day downside bias remains for a correction of y’day’s rally from a 5-week low of 105.20.
Traders cited broad-based yen buying on risk aversion due to the upcoming China GDP as street forecast is looking for Q3 annual growth to slow down to 7.2% vs prev. reading of 7.5%.
So short-term specs are buying yen/selling dlr ahead of the downbeat China GDP.
Offers are noted at 107.00/10 n more abv with minor bids at 106.70, stops below 106.60-50 are now in focus.

21 Oct 2014
[B]AUD/USD[/B] - …RBA meeting minutes:
‘most prudent course likely to be a period of stability for rates;
despite recent fall, a$ remained high by historical standards;
in recent months there had been a further pick up in lending to housing investors;
members discussed importance for banks to maintain strong lending standards;
range of indicators suggested labour market was subdued but had stabilised somewhat this year;
forward-looking indicators pointed to modest employment growth ahead; wage growth to remain relatively slow near term, help contain inflation even with A$ lower;
historically slow wage growth consistent with spare capacity in labour market;
more timely indicators suggested moderate growth overall had continued into Q3;
consumption was likely to be supported by ongoing strength in housing; members observed most Australian iron ore production remained profitable following price fall;
members were briefed that Chinese authorities had scope to ease policy if needed to support growth.’

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

22 Oct 2014[/B] [I]01:45GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... The pair pares yesterday's gain and retreats in Tokyo morning due to intra-day broad-based pullback in the greenback following yesterday's rally together with present retreat in the Nikkei (the N225 trimmed initial 325-point gain, now at 15025, up by 221 points). 

Despite extending o/n rise in NY session to 107.11 in Australia, selling interest emerged after dlr showed muted reaction on Japan’s trade data, price retreated to 106.86 in Asian morning.
Looks like range trading is in store and as long as the Nikkei can hold on to intra-day gain after yesterday’s broad-based rise in global stocks, buying on dips is favoured.
Bids are noted at 106.80-70 and more below with some stops below 106.50. Initial offers are tipped at 107.05/15 with stops above 107.20, more stops are touted above 107.40.

[B]Data to be released on Wednesday : [/B]

the release of Japan imports, exports and trade balance,
Australia inflation,
BoE minutes,
UK BoE MPC vote,
Canada retail sales,
BoC rate decision,
U.S. weekly earnings and CPI.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Oct 2014[/B] [I] 01:26GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... Dlr pares Wed's gain in early Tokyo trading as intra-day retreat in the Nikkei (currently down 102 points at 15093 after yesterday's 2.5% rally) has led to intra-day renewed buying in yen. 

Although the pair climbed in NY morning after U.S. CPI ticked higher and touched session high of 107.38, offers at Monday’s 107.39 top checked intra-day gain and price edged lower near NY close.
Looks like range trading would continue in Asia, unless the Nikkei falls sharply, re-test of 107.28/39 is on the card.
Bids are noted at 107.00 and more below would stops below 106.80-75.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 107.45/50 with stops above there, however, more selling interest is reported at 107.80/00 area.

[B]Thursday[/B] will see the release of New Zealand CPI, Japan manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, France business climate, manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, services PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Italy trade balance, UK retail sales, CBI trends, U.S. home price index, jobless claims, manufacturing PMI, leading index and consumer confidence.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

24 Oct 2014[/B] [I]01:49GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ..... Just when the market gave a green light to buy the dlr/sell the yen on Thursday after yesterday's upbeat data in the euro zone (PMIs) and the U.S. (falling jobless claims, rising leading indicators), news on the 1st diagnosed case of Ebola in New York knocked the wind off the USD, knocking the pair briefly to 107.87 in Tokyo as the news triggered a bout of yen buying on risk aversion. 

Nikkei pared initial gain after the N225 futures rallied 300 points (Nikkei spot index is currently up 142 points at 15280) & S&P futures are trading in negative territory.

Unless the Nikkei heads higher again later in the day once current Ebola scare subsides, range trading with downside bias is seen.
For now, offers are tipped at 108.10/20 and more above with stops above yesterday’s NY high at 108.36.
Initial bids are noted at 107.85-80 and more below with stops touted below 107.40-35.

Japan’s FinMin Taro Aso talked about the importance to proceed with sales tax plan as scheduled to maintain trust in JGB market.
Aso continued to say that the MoF will continue to communicate with markets to make sure discount bills and JGBs are auctioned smoothly.

Last night the greenback maintained a firm undertone due to renewed risk aversion as Dow Jones index rallied by more than 225 points or 1.37% to 16654. Besides, U.S. 2-year treasuries note yield climbs near 0.4%, highest in more than a week.
Bids were located at 108.10-05 n more at 107.90-80.
On the upside, some offers were tipped at 108.40-45 with mixture of stops n offers is seen at 108.50.

[B]Friday [/B]will see the release of New Zealand trade balance, imports, exports, China house prices, Germany consumer sentiment, Italy retail sales, UK GDP and U.S. new home sales.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

27 Oct 2014[/B] [I]02:00GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ....... Although dlr 'gapped-up' higher to a fresh 2-week peak at 108.37 in Australia after Reuters reported Sun a Yomiuri poll showed public approval for Japan PM Abe's government has slumped, lack of follow-through buying n continued concerns over the Ebola case in NY prompted profit-taking. Dlr later retreated to 107.93 in Tokyo morning. 

Today, dlr’s retreat from 108.37 suggests initial consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen ahead European open but as long as 107.79 (Fri’s low in NY) holds, outlook remains mildly bullish for marginal gain after consolidation n therefore, buying dlr on dips is the favoured strategy. Bids are noted at 108.00-107.90 with mixture of bids n stops at 107.80/75 n further out at 107.50/45. On the upside, offers are placed at 108.30-40 n then 108.50 with stops emerging just above 108.80.

[B]The coming week [/B]will see the release of German Ifo business climate, U.K. CBI distributive trades, U.S. Markit services PMI flash, pending sales change and revised building permits change [B]on Monday.[/B]

Japan’s retail sales, German import index, U.S. durable goods, Redbook, CaseShiller house price, consumer confidence [B]on Tuesday.[/B]

Japan’s industrial output, New Zealand ANZ bussiness outlook, U.K. mortgage approval and mortgage lending, Canada’s producer prices, FOMC rate decision and Fed’s monetary policy statement [B]on Wednesday.[/B]

RBNZ rate decision, Australia’s HIA new home sales, import and export prices, U.K. Nationwide house prices, Swiss KOF indicator, German unemployment rate, EU business climate, economic sentiment and final consumer confidence, U.S. jobless claims, GDP in Q3 and core PCE, German CPI and HICP [B]on Thursday.[/B]

Japan’s all household spending, CPI and unemployment, GfK consumer confidence, Australia’s PPI, Bank of Japan monetary statement, construction orders, housing starts, BOJ press conference, BOJ outlook report, EU inflation and unemployment, U.S. PCE price index, personal real consumption and income, core PCE price index, Canada’s GDP and U.S. University of Michigan sentiment [B]on Friday.[/B]

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

27 Oct 2014[/B] [I]08:21GMT [/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- … Despite initial gap-up open to a 2-week high of 108.37 in Aust. (NZ was closed for Labour Day holiday today), dlr’s broad-based weakness in Asian morning pressured the pair to 107.86 b4 a recovery was seen ahead of European open.

As 108.09 has capped dlr’s intra-day recovery, consolidation with nr term downside bias is in store. Dlr is likely to track intra-day swings in the Nikkei futures during European morning ahead of release of U.S. eco. data later in the day, these include U.S. services PMI, pending home sales and Dalla Fed mfg business index.

Offers are noted at 108.10/20 n more above with stops reported above 108.40, however, more offers are tipped at 108.55/65.
Initial bids are noted at 107.85-80 with stops below 107.75.

According to a poll published from Yomiuri on Sunday, public approval of PM Shinzo Abe’s gov’t slumped after the resignation of two high-profile cabinet ministers last week, adding more pressure on Abe as he struggles to turn around the Japanese economy.
Japan’s biggest daily the Yomiuri surveyed 1,059 people by telephone on Fri n Sat n found support for Abe’s gov’t had fallen to 53% fm 62% in less than a month. Of those surveyed, 37% said they disapproved of the gov’t, up fm a 30% disapproval rating in a previous poll on Oct 10.
In the biggest setback since he took office in December 2012, Abe lost two cabinet ministers on one day last week, complicating tough decisions on key policies, including whether to proceed with an unpopular sales tax hike n restarts of nuclear reactors shut down after the 2011 Fukushima disaster.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

28 Oct 2014[/B] [I]01:08GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ...... Statement from BoJ Governor Kuroda, quote: 

'-Japan’s economy is showing some weakness mainly in output but positive cycle remain intact
-job, income conditions improving steadily
-private consumption solid as a trend with non-durable goods sales emerging from sales tax hike pain
-Tankan shows many firms expect effect of sales tax hike to be temporary
-Japan’s economy likely to continue moderate recovery with effect of tax hike seen easing
-consumer inflation slowing somewhat due to recent energy price falls but likely to hover around 1-1.5 pct for time being
-QQE exerting intended effects, japan on steady path toward meeting boj’s price target
-Japan only half way in meeting boj’s price target
-won’t hesitate to adjust policy should risks threaten achievement of boj’s price target
-negative yields seen in boj’s short-term bill auctions are sign of how powerful effect of boj’s monetary easing is
-BOJ is not trying to guide yields to negative territory, it is only consequence of its stimulus policy
-yen weakness so far has been positive for Japan’s economy ’

[B]Tuesday[/B] will see the release of Japan’s retail sales, German import index, U.S. durable goods, Redbook, CaseShiller house price and consumer confidence.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

29 Oct 2014[/B] [I]02:08GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B]… Despite dlr’s volatile trading in Tuesday’s NY session after release of mixed U.S. eco data, price rebounded after meeting renewed buying at 107.70 and traded firmly against the yen in NY afternoon.
Dlr rose above European high of 108.17 to a fresh intra-day high of 108.19 near NY close and then marginally higher to 108.23 in Tokyo morning on the rally in Nikkei index (currently up 1.36% to 15538).

Although cross-selling in yen on improved risk appetite after yesterday’s rally in global stocks suggests buying on dips is recommended, sharp gain above Monday’s 2-week peak at 108.37 is not envisaged as market participants are reluctant to enter large position ahead of the release of FOMC statement later in NY afternoon today.
The Fed is widely expected to announce the end of its bond-buying program today, though uncertainty as to whether or not the statement will contain dovish or hawkish language surrounding interest rates. As no press conference is scheduled, market won’t hear any comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

At present, bids are noted at 108.00-107.90 and around 107.80 with mixture of bids and stops emerging below 107.60.
On the upside, offers are placed at 108.30-40 and then 108.50 with stops located just above 108.70, however, heavy selling interest from various accounts is touted in the 108.90-109.10 region.

News from WSJ about today’s Fed’s monetary policy announcement, the newspaper reported that Federal Reserve officials meeting Tuesday and Wednesday are virtually certain to end their latest bond-buying program, but they won’t be retiring the policy for good.

Their recent comments show bond purchases are now an established part of the Fed’s policy tool kit that they could employ again in times of deep economic trouble.

Several Fed policy makers said they think the latest round of Treasury n mortgage-bond purchases, begun in late 2012, helped lower long-term interest rates, boosting hiring and growth. But they also see a high bar to launching more bond buying (QE) seeing it as a last resort to use only if very low interest rates n communications efforts were to fail to reverse a sharply worsening economic outlook.

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has said she wouldn’t rule out more bond buying if needed, and Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer deemed the program ‘largely successful.’

Many investors expect the Fed to start raising its benchmark short-term rate from near zero in the middle of next year, a view some top officials have encouraged.

[B]Wednesday [/B]will see the release of Japan’s industrial output, New Zealand ANZ business outlook, U.K. mortgage approval and mortgage lending, Canada’s producer prices, FOMC rate decision and Fed’s monetary policy statement.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

30 Oct 2014[/B] [I]02:13GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - .....statement from PM Abe this morning: 

“need to flexibly review composition of GPIF’s pension fund management reflecting end to deflation;
won’t use pension fund management directly to boost stock prices, but change in allocation will indirectly help Japan’s economy.
whether Japan can return growth path in Jul-Sep quarter will be key on if proceed with next sales tax hike to 10%;
it’s true sales tax hike weakens consumers’ purchasing power, must scrutinise how it effects prospects for ending deflation;
economic growth is continuing as a whole;
want to look at various data for Jul-Sep in deciding if to compile extra budget to stimulate economy.”

[B]Thursday[/B] will see the release of RBNZ rate decision, Australia’s HIA new home sales, import and export prices, U.K. Nationwide house prices, Swiss KOF indicator, German unemployment rate, EU business climate, economic sentiment and final consumer confidence, U.S. jobless claims, GDP in Q3 and core PCE, German CPI and HICP.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
31 Oct 2014[/B] [I]00:08GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - .......Latest news:  'Japan government to approve GPIF reallocation on Friday, raising Japan equity target to 25% from the current target of 12%, two government sources said.'

Japan’s economy minister Amari said that :
“Abe’s cabinet is ready to take steps as needed, when asked about chance of compiling stimulus measures;
will consult with Abe whether stimulus package is needed, after scrutinising Jul-Sep data;
no decision yet on whether to complete stimulus package, also on size of any package.”

Last night U.S. dollar rose to a fresh 3-1/2 week high of 109.36 versus the Japanese yen on renewed risk appetites due to the rally in Nikkei-225 index futures n U.S. stock markets.
Dow Jones index now rose by 221 point or 1.3% to 17196. Bids was located at 109.20-10 and more at 109.00. On the upside, some offers were tipped at 109.40 and 109.60.

[B]Friday [/B]will see the release of Japan’s all household spending, CPI and unemployment, GfK consumer confidence, Australia’s PPI, Bank of Japan monetary statement, construction orders, housing starts, BOJ press conference, BOJ outlook report, EU inflation and unemployment, U.S. PCE price index, personal real consumption and income, core PCE price index, Canada’s GDP and U.S. University of Michigan sentiment.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

03 Nov 2014[/B] [I]02:39GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... Dlr pares initial gain after rising to a fresh near 7-year peak of 113.00/01. The euphoria of broad-based yen-selling continued at Monday's open after Friday's close near the day's high of 112.48 together with the closing of the Dow & S&P 500 at their records highs (Nikkei futures were up 495 points on Fri) boosted risk sentiment even though markets are closed in Japan for Culture Day holiday. 

Although dlr opened near said Friday’s NY close in NZ, st specs sold the yen broadly, sending dlr to 113.00/01 in Australia, however, price eased to 112.65 on lack of follow-through buying.
Initial bids are reported at 112.50-40 with stops below there, however, more buying interest is noted above 112.00.
On the upside, offers are touted at 112.90/00 with some stops above there. As the w/end release of downbeat China official mfg PMI plus today’s release of weaker-than-expected China official non-mfg PMI have not tempered risk sentiment in the yen, buy dlr on dips is the way to go.

The coming week will see the release of following economic data:

Australian building approvals, China NBS non-manufacturing PMI n HSBC manufacturing PMI, German and EU Markit manufacturing PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, U.S Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing employment index and manufacturing PMI [B]on Monday; [/B]

Australia’s trade balance and retail sales, RBA interest rate decision and statement, U.K. Halifax house price, Markit construction PMI, EU producer prices, U.S. international trade, Canada’s exports, imports and trade balance, U.S. Redbook, ISM New York index, factory orders, durable goods [B]on Tuesday; [/B]

New Zealand’s HLFS unemployment rate, job growth and labour cost index, China’s HSBC services PMI, Swiss CPI, German Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit services PMI, eurozone retail sales, U.S. ADP National employment, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and employment index [B]on Wednesday; [/B]

Australia’s unemployment rate and employment change, Japan’s leading indicator, Swiss consumer confidence, Germany’s industrial orders, U.K. industrial output and manufacturing output, BOE interest rate decision, ECB rate decision, Canada’s building permits, U.S. labor costs and productivity and Canada’s Ivey PMI [B]on Thursday; [/B]

Swiss unemployment rate, Germany’s imports, exports and trade balance, Swiss retail sales, U.K. goods trade balance and average earnings, Canada’s unemployment and employment change, U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, private payrolls, government payrolls and consumer credit [B]on Friday. [/B]

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

04 Nov 2014[/B] [I]01:22GMT [/I]
[B]AUS/USD[/B] - … Australia’s official statistician released revised figures for employment showed that labour market was weaker than first report over August and September.
Australian September employment revised to -23.7K, from -29.7K, whilst Australian September unemployment rate revised to 6.2% vs 6.1% in August.

[B]04 Nov 2014[/B] [I]00:28GMT[/I]
[B]USD/JPY[/B] - … quoting comments from Japan EcoMin Amari when asked about weak yen, he said 'yen will no doubt move in that direction given divergence in U.S., Japan monetary polices.'
and ‘believe PM Abe will like to take into account MOF’s corporate survey, due early Dec, in making final decision on if to raise sales tax hike.’

[B]Tuesday[/B] will see the release of Australia’s trade balance and retail sales, RBA interest rate decision and statement, U.K. Halifax house price, Markit construction PMI, EU producer prices, U.S. international trade, Canada’s exports, imports and trade balance, U.S. Redbook, ISM New York index, factory orders and durable goods.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

10 Nov 2014[/B] [I]01:05GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - 114.38.. Dlr opened in NZ around where it left off in NY Friday (around 114.62), however, renewed usd's broad-based weakness following a weak closing Friday pressured price in NZ/AUS, the pair fell 1-tick below Friday's 114.26 low at Tokyo open but lack of follow-through selling quickly lifted price. 

Despite the Dow & S&P 500 indices touching record closing highs for the 3rd day in a row, intra-day weakness in the Nikkei (currently down 121 points at 16759) as well as falling U.S. treasury yields suggests dlr may well have formed a temporary high at Friday’s fresh 7-year peak at 115.62.
Offers are tipped at 114.60/65 n more above with stops touted above 115.00.
On the downside, initial bids are noted at 114.25-20 and more below at 114.10-00 with stops reported below there, suggesting consolidation with downside bias is in store.

Reuters reported citing source from the Japan’s Yomiuri newspaper Japan’s PM Shinzo Abe is considering dissolving the lower house of parliament and calling a snap election if he decides to delay a plan to raise the sales tax next year.
If Abe does dissolve the lower house, an election could be held on Dec. 14 or Dec. 21, the Yomiuri reported on Sunday citing several government and ruling party sources.
Abe has also told members of his party’s coalition partner of this plan, the Yomiuri said. In a TV interview on Fri, Abe said he was not thinking of calling an early election, but then he hedged his bets by saying this is something a prime minister always has to say.
Abe has to decide by year’s end whether to go through with a plan to raise the sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent in October 2015.
Abe could delay this plan by a year and a half if 3rd quarter GDP, which is due on Nov. 17, struggles to accelerate, the Yomiuri said.
If Abe does delay the tax hike he would call an election to ask the public to judge his economic policies, the Yomiuri said.

[B]Data to be released this week:[/B]

Australia housing finance, China CPI, PPI, Italy industrial output, EU sentix index and Canada housing starts [B]on Monday.[/B]

Japan trade balance, current account, tertiary industry index, Australia home price index, NAB business confidence, France market holiday, Canada market holiday and U.S. market holiday [B]on Tuesday. [/B]

Australia Wage price index, UK average earnings, claimant count, ILO unemployment, BoE inflation report, EU industrial production, U.S. redbook retail sales, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales [B]on Wednesday. [/B]

Japan CGPI, machinery orders, industrial output, capacity utilization, China industrial output, retail sales, Germany CPI, HICP, Swiss PPI, Italy CPI, Canada housing price index, U.S. jobless claims and Federal budget [B]on Thursday. [/B]

France GDP, Germany GDP, Italy GDP, UK construction output, EU GDP, CPI, U.S. retail sales, export prices, import prices, business inventories, U. of Michigan sentiment and Canada manufacturing sales [B]on Friday.[/B]