AceTraderFx Nov 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
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  1. #1

    Smile AceTraderFx Nov 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

    05 Nov 2014

    GBP/USD
    -...... Cable moved in a choppy fashion below Monday's high of 1.6027 on Tuesday. Although price found renewed buying at 1.5965 at Asian open n ratcheted higher in Europe, selling interest at 1.6015/20 checked intra-day gain at 1.6016 at NY open and cable later tanked to 1.5982 in NY afternoon due to cross-selling vs euro before staging another bounce to 1.6012 in Asia on Wednesday.

    Although the early release of weak U.K. shop price index suggests range trading with mild downside bias wud be seen in Asia n selling cable on recovery is recommended, as investors are awaiting the release of U.K. service PMI in European morning (09:30GMT) for further indication of how the U.K.'s main economic sector is performing when Christmas is approaching, sharp fall is unlikely ahead of European open.
    Economists are expecting the reading to soften to 58.5 in Oct compare to 58.7 in September.

    At present, offers are noted at 1.6010-20 n then 1.6030/35 with stops emerging above 1.6050, whilst bids are placed at 1.5985/80 and around 1.5965 with stops placed just below 1.5950.

    News in early Wednesday, British shops matched a record decline in the price cuts in October and food prices looked at risk of falling into deflation, a survey fm the British Retail Consortium showed on Wednesday.

    BRC said October retail prices were 1.9 percent lower than a year ago, matching July's record decline and weaker than a 1.8 percent fall in September.
    Prices for food products edged up just 0.1 percent, the smallest rise since the survey began almost eight years ago, compared with a 0.3 percent increase in September.
    There was deep and widespread discounting across grocery stores.

    Britain's big supermarkets have fought an escalating price war, spurred by discounters like Aldi and Lidl which have taken a growing market share from traditional rival grocers.

    Overall, consumer price inflation ran at 1.2 percent in September, well below the Bank of England's 2 percent target.
    Wages are growing even more slowly - something the BoE has cited as a reason to keep interest rates on hold.

  2. #2

    Smile AceTraderFx Nov 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

    13 Nov 2014 08:03GMT

    GBP/USD - ...... Cable remains under pressure in European morning after yesterday's dovish BoE inflation report and hovers just above Aust.'s fresh 14-month low at 1.5760.

    Fresh offers are noted at 1.5775/80 and around 1.5790 with stops emerging above 1.5800, however, more selling interest from various accounts is placed in the region of 1.5820-40.
    On the downside, bids from profit-taking are touted at 1.5750-40 and around 1.5720 with buying interest from real accounts located further out at 1.5700.

    This morning Cable tumbled on Wednesday after the BoE downgraded U.K. inflation forecasts significantly in its quarterly Inflation Report n dampened market's hopes of rate hike in early 2015.
    BoE said in the report that inflation rate in U.K. may fall below 1.0% at sometime within the next 6-months and growth prospects are also somewhat lower to 2.9% in 2015. The British pound fell sharply after the report, dropping fm intra-day high of 1.5940 to 1.5776 in NY afternoon n then further to a fresh 14-month trough at 1.5760 in Australia earlier this morning before stabilising.
    Earlier, as cable remained under pressure with no U.K. eco. release are due, selling the pound on recovery is the way to go. buying interest from real accounts located at 1.5700.

  3. #3

    Smile AceTraderFx Dec 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

    02 Dec 2014
    GBP/USD
    - .... Cable pares yesterday's sharp gain after price staged a near term reversal from a fresh 14-month low of 1.5585 to as high as 1.5763 (NY) as intra-day sharp jump in the U.K. Brent crude from a 5-year low of $67.53 a barrel to $72.40 triggered broad-based short-covering in sterling (eur/gbp fell from 0.7977 to 0.7924).

    Although price has eased in tandem with intra-day retreat in eur/usd in subdued Asian trading, suggesting consolidation below said yesterday's high wud continue until European open. Today, U.K. Nov construction PMI will be due out at 09:30GMT ahead of Wed's release of a slew of important data as well as FinMin Geroge Osborne's annual Autumn Statement to Parliament.
    Initial bids are noted at 1.5715-00 area with some stops below there.
    On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.5755/65 with stops reported above 1.5780, suggesting buying cable on dips is the way to go.

    The Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will give his annual Autumn Statement to Parliament on Wed. The statement provides an update on the govt's plans for the economy based on the latest forecasts fm the Office for Budget Responsibility. These forecasts will be published alongside the Autumn Statement tom.

    WSJ reported Osborne is expected to deliver the message that Britain is in for another dose of gov't belt-tightening if his Conservative Party wins a general election next year, as data show the economy's recovery remains patchy.

    The closely watched update on Britain's public finances comes at a delicate time for Osborne n his close ally, PM David Cameron, who are preparing for an election in May. Their economic record will be a central issue n a key question will be whether U.K. voters will be willing to stomach further cuts n return the Conservative Party to power.

    Economists expect Osborne to present forecasts showing that despite the economy's return to growth he remains years away fm meeting his self-imposed goal of closing the U.K.'s budget deficit. That implies tax increases or further cuts to public spending will be needed after 2015.
    "I think the British public understands that difficult decisions need to be taken so that Britain can live within its means," Osborne said Sun in an interview with the BBC.

  4. #4

    Smile AceTraderFx Dec 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

    03 Dec 2014
    GBP/USD
    - ...... Cable pares intra-day losses in Europe n rebounded briefly after stronger-than-expected U.K. services PMI. November reading came in at 58.6, much higher than market estimate of 56.5, previous month's reading was 56.2.

    The pound hit a low of 1.5619 before the data and briefly bounced to 1.5671 after the release, however, price quickly eased back to 1.5650 as offers at 1.5670/80 have capped intra-day rebound, suggesting range trading above 1.5619 would be seen ahead of the delivery of the annual Autumn Statement by FnMin George Osborne at 12:30GMT.

    In the meantime, offers are tipped at 1.5670/80 n more above with stops above 1.5700.
    Bids are noted at 1.5620-00 area with stops building below last week's fresh 14-month low at 1.5585.

    More on the upbeat U.K. services PMI, Britain's services sector expanded faster than expected last month, a survey showed on Wednesday, suggesting the economy may be slowing less than previously thought following a year of robust growth.

    The closely watched Markit/CIPS services purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 58.6 in Nov after falling sharply to 56.2 in October, beating all forecasts in a Reuters poll, amid reports of firm demand and increased new business.

    The rise in the index was the biggest in over a year, and it has exceeded the 50 level that represents growth for nearly 2 years. A corresponding manufacturing survey on Monday also showed a rebound, though Tuesday's construction PMI was weaker. Markit said that taken together, the surveys suggested Britain's economy will grow by 0.6% in the final 3 months of 2014, up fm a previous estimate of 0.5%.

    The data is likely to be welcomed by FinMin George Osborne, who gives a half-yearly update on official growth and borrowing forecasts later on Wed, his penultimate such statement before May's national election. The BoE forecasts Britain's economy will grow by 3.5% this year, faster than any other big advanced economy, before growth slows to 2.9% next year.

  5. #5

    Smile AceTraderFx Dec 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    16 Dec 2014
    09:33GMT

    GBP/USD - 1.5630... Although the British pound traded with a firm bias in Asia and briefly rose to session high at 1.5678 in European morning, price swiftly surrendered its gains and fell sharply to 1.5612 after the release of weaker-than-expected UK inflation data.

    Statement from BoE's Carney, quote:
    'momentum may return to UK housing market after stamp duty cut and falls in mortgage rates;
    international risks likely to figure prominently in 2015 stress test;
    given footprint of largest UK banks in Asia, can expect Asian risk to be in future stress test;
    want to explore how contagion can spread from less liquid mkts to core mkts;
    UK institutions have very modest banking exposure to Russia;
    BoE will look through direct impact of oil price on UK inflation.'

    BoE FPC quote:
    'judges no system-wide macroprudential actions needed in response to UK stress tests;
    decides at Dec meeting to set counter-cyclical capital buffer rate for UK exposures at 0%;
    risks from UK housing market have not risen since June but household debt still high;
    UK banks' recent misconduct and operational failings show better governance needed;
    stress tests give clean bill of health to Barclays, Hsbc, Nationwide, Santander UK and Standard Chartered.'

    BoE stress tests show 'co-operative bank was only one to fall below 4.5% capital threshold;
    RBS exceeded 4.5% threshold after submitted revised capital plan, BoE judges additional plan not needed;
    Lloyds exceeded 4.5% threshold, not required to submit revised capital plan due to action since end 2013.'
    'BoE stress tests show UK banks could continue to serve economy even after severe stress.'

  6. #6

    Smile AceTraderFx Dec 17: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    17 Dec 2014
    09:46GMT

    GBP/USD - ...... The British pound remained under pressure in Asia and continued to weaken throughout the session. Price eventually hit a low at 1.5677/78 in early European morning, however, cable pared its losses and rebounded strongly to 1.5729 after the release of UK average earnings and BoE minutes.

    Bids are now seen at 1.5700/10 and more below at 1.5680/90 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.5750/60, suggesting buying on dips is favored.

    The BoE has focused more on wage growth as it considers when to start raising rates. Data due to be released at the same time of the minutes on Wed was expected to show earnings rising faster than inflation for a 2nd month in Oct.

    The minutes showed the majority who voted to keep rates on hold thought faster pay growth would be required to meet the 2% inflation target.

    However, those in favour of a rate rise thought this was already in train.

    Financial market investors have pushed back their bets on the timing of the next interest rate hike markedly over the past few months, n are now pricing in the first move late next year.

    Last month the BoE issued forecasts that showed British inflation will likely fall below 1% in the next 6 months, while Carney suggested markets were right to rule out an interest rate hike any time soon.

  7. #7

    Smile AceTraderFx Dec 18: Intra-Day News and Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

    18 Dec 2014
    02:40GMT
    GBP/USD - ...... Cable is nursing yesterdays sharp losses in quiet Asian trading on Thursday after o/n sell off below December's 1.5541 low to a fresh 14-1/2 month trough of 1.5530 after Fed Chair Yellen's hawkish remarks at the post-FOMC press conference.
    Despite tripping stops in a rather illiquid late NY session, short covering quickly lifted the pound once the sell stops were done.
    Price briefly bounced to 1.5603 n then moved narrowly in Australia. Asian traders are happy to stay on the sideline until European open.

    Looks like Wednesday's low print would continue to hold until release of key U.K. retail sales data at 09:30GMT. Street forecasts are looking for a weakish Novmeber number with M/M to be 0.3% vs previous reading of +0.8% whilst Y/Y figure is expected to be 4.4% vs previous reading of 4.3%.
    If both readings come in weaker than forecast, one can expect another round of pound bashing.
    Until then, offers are noted at 1.5600/10 and more above with stops reported above 1.5630.
    Initial bids are noted at 1.5505-00 with some stops below there.

    Thursday will see the release of New Zealand's GDP, Australia's RBA Bulletin, China's House Prices, Switzerland's Trade, Germany's IFO Business Climates, IFO Current Conditions, IFO Expectations, U.K.'s Retail sales, U.S. Markit Service PMI, Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Business and Leading index change. Japan's BoJ will begin its 2-day meeting.

  8. #8

    Smile AceTraderFx Dec 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    22 Dec 2014
    09:31GMT

    GBP/USD - ..... Although the British pound traded with a firm bias in Asia and gained briefly to session high at 1.5665 at European open, cable pared its gains and retreated sharply to 1.5618 in European morning, due partly to cross-selling of sterling especially vs euro.

    Offers are now seen at 1.5650/60 and more above at 1.5670/80 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.5590/00.
    Since there is no eco. data out from UK today, price is expected to trade in choppy fashion till NY open.

    Bank of England's Weale says hearing of pay freezes much more rarely from UK businesses.

    This morning the British pound move narrowly in subdued Asian trading as some traders have closed their books in this holiday-abbreviated week. Despite Friday's rebound after intra-day retreat from 1.5682 to 1.5605 (NY low), anticipated renewed weakness in the eur/usd shud limit intra-day gain.
    As no U.K. eco. data are due out today, cable is expected to track intra-day swings in the euro.
    Order book was very thin on this Monday morning

  9. #9

    Smile AceTraderFx Jan 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

    Intra-day Market Moving News and Views

    05 Jan 2015 09:35GMT
    GBP/USD - ...... Although the British pound resumed its recent losing streak adn fell in tandem with euro to a fresh 16-month low at 1.5185 in Australia, price pared its losses and rallied to 1.5320 at Asian open on active-short covering.
    Renewed buying emerged at 1.5273 ahead of European open and lifted the pair to 1.5320 again before retreating marginally due to the release of poor UK construction PMI data.

    UK construction PMI came in much weaker-than-expected at 57.6 vs forecast of 59.0.

    Offers are now seen at 1.5310/20 and more above at 1.5330/40 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.5240/50, suggesting selling on recovery is still the favored strategy.

  10. #10

    Smile AceTraderFx Jan 9: Intra-Day News and Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    09 Jan 2015
    02:32GMT

    GBP/USD - ..... Despite initial retreat from NY high of 1.5118 to 1.5078 in Australia, cable rebounded to 1.5104 on dovish remarks by Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, its was a surprise dlr fell broadly on his comments since he is not a voting member of the 2015 FOMC and has announced plans to resign by early next year.
    As yesterday's short-covering strong rebound from a 17-month bottom made in Europe at 1.5034 signals a temp. low is in place, range trading is expected in Asia.
    Offers are tipped at 1.5100/10 with stops touted above 1.5130.
    Initial bids are noted at 1.5080-70 and more below with stops reported below 1.5030.


    Friday will see the release of Australia retail sales, Japan leading indicator, Swiss unemployment rate, China CPI, PPI, Germany imports, exports, industrial output, trade balance, France exports, imports, industrial output, trade balance, Italy ISTAT Public Deficit/GDP, UK industrial output, manufacturing output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, Canada building permits, unemployment rate, U.S. average earnings, non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales.

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