AceTraderFx Feb 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
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  1. #1

    Smile AceTraderFx Feb 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    25 Feb 2015

    EUR/USD - ..... Euro pares intra-day gain after jumping to session high of 1.1388/89 shortly after European open, the break of yesterday's 1.1359 top bodes well for further gain later in the day once offers at 1.1390/00 are absorbed and fairly large stops are reported above 1.1450.
    Bids have been raised to 1.1360-40 area with some stops below 1.1330.

    A piece of euro-supportive news, Reuters reported French consumer confidence rose to its highest level in nearly 3 years in February, INSEE statistics agency said on Wednesday.

    The index rose to 92 from 90 in January, beating analyst forecasts of 91 and reaching its highest level since May 2012. It was still well below its long-term average of 100.
    The index, which is not closely correlated to consumer spending trends, hit an all-time low in May and June 2013 of 79. The highest level since the survey was conducted on a monthly basis was 125 in Jan 2001.

    Early this morning Euro maintains a firm undertone in subdued Asian trading after Tuesday's intra-day wild swings.
    The single currency was on the defensive in European morning as market awaited European Commission's to Greece's submission of its reforms proposal.
    Price fell from intra-day 1.1343 high to 1.1296 in European morning and despite a knee-jerk reaction after the EC accepted Greece's reforms plan, euro spiked to session lows of 1.1288 when Fed chief testimony was released but price quickly rallied on short-covering to day's high of 1.1359 before chopping inside a 1.1302-48 range in NY afternoon.

    Euro is expected to gain respite as price has managed to shrug off bearish fundamentals, suggesting the 3-week long sideways range of 1.1534-1.1270 would continue in the coming days and upside risk has increased for further upside gain on more short-covering.

  2. #2

    Smile AceTraderFx Feb 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    27 Feb 2015

    EUR/USD - ...... Reuters news, Japan fund managers raise global stock weighting to 44.6% in February from 41.4% in January; trim global bond weighting to 51.% in February from 51.7% in January and raise euro zone stick weightings, cut Japan bond weighting in February.

    Headline euro zone inflation has plunged to -0.6%, well under the ECB's target. A majority of forecasters -- 63 of 85 -- said it won't rebound by much even if global energy prices, which have dragged it down recently, start to rise.

    The ECB's bond purchase programme, which includes sovereign debt, will run from March until September 2016 or until inflation shows signs of picking up pace.

    The ECB is expected to expand its balance sheet by about 1.1 tln euros by the end of next year, matching its level of early 2012, when the euro zone debt crisis raged.

    35 of 81 economists expect the ECB to close out its QE programme by September 2016, on its intended schedule. Forty said the central bank will need to extend it beyond that date, while the remaining 6 said the ECB will conclude bond purchases before then.

    But economists are not convinced the programme will lead to a revival in lending to the real economy and fuel demand. The liquidity flush by the ECB back in 2012 did not materially improve loans to the private sector at that time either.

  3. #3

    Smile AceTraderFx Mar 2: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    02 Mar 2015

    EUR/USD - ..... Euro opened lower in NZ on Monday to 1.1167, then 1.1160 ahead of Asian open.
    Reuters reported Greece's leftist PM Alexis Tsipras accused Spain n Portugal on Saturday of leading a conservative conspiracy to topple his anti-austerity goverment, saying they feared their own radical forces before elections this year.

    In a speech to his Syriza party, Tsipras accused them of taking a hard line in negotiations which led to the euro zone extending the bailout programme last week for 4 months.

    "We found opposing us an axis of powers ... led by the governments of Spain n Portugal which for obvious political reasons attempted to lead the entire negotiations to the brink," said Tsipras, who won an election on January 25.

    "Their plan was and is to wear down, topple or bring our goverment to unconditional surrender before our work begins to bear fruit and before the Greek example affects other countries," he said, adding: "And mainly before the elections in Spain."
    Tsipras has portrayed the Eurogroup deal as a victory for Greece, even though it meant extending the bailout programme he had promised voters to scrap. He noted German lawmakers from Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives had attacked the Greek leadership when they approved the extension on Fri.

    "We have all watched the strong opposition within Angela Merkel's party which shows that unacceptable concessions have been made to Greece," he said.
    So far he has public backing. A poll conducted by the University of Macedonia for SKAI TV showed 56 percent of Greeks believed the extension had been a success, compared with 24 percent who said it represented a failure.

    Ireland's FinMin has said Athens must negotiate a 3rd bailout when the extension expires in Jun - something Tsipras denied on Friday.

    FinMin Yanis Varoufakis called into question a major debt repayment Greece must make to the ECB this summer, after acknowledging Athens faces problems in meeting its obligations to international creditors.

    Data to be released this week:

    New Zealand imports, exports, trade balance, Australia new home sales, business inventories, Japan manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss manufacturing PMI, Italy manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, UK manufacturing PMI, mortgage approvals, Canada current account, U.S. PCE, personal income, personal consumption, ISM manufacturing PMI and construction spending on Monday.

    Australia building approvals, RBA rate decision, Swiss GDP, Germany retail sales, UK construction PMI, EU producer prices, Canada GDP, producer prices, U.S. redbook retail sales and ISM New York index on Tuesday.

    Australia GDP, China HSBC services PMI, Italy services PMI, France services PMI, Germany services PMI, EU services PMI, retail sales, UK services PMI, Canada BoC rate decision, U.S. ADP employment and Fed beige book on Wednesday.

    Australia exports, imports, trade balance, retail sales, France unemployment rate, Germany industrial orders, Italy GDP, UK BoE rate decision, EU ECB rate decision, Canada Ivey PMI and U.S. jobless claims and factory orders on Thursday.

    Japan leading indicator, Germany industrial output, France exports, imports, budget balance, Swiss CPI, Italy producer prices, EU GDP, Canada building permits, exports, imports, trade balance, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, average earnings, unemployment rate and international trade on Friday.

  4. #4

    Smile AceTraderFx Mar 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    02 Mar 2015

    EUR/USD - 1.1208... The single currency found renewed buying at 1.1166 at European open n rose to 1.1213 in European morning, supported by the release of some upbeat manufacturing PMIs from the Eurozone together with cross-buying of euro vs sterling.

    Italy and Germany manufacturing PMIs came in better-than-expected at 51.9 n 51.1 vs forecasts of 50.3 n 50.9 respectively.

    Bids are now seen at 1.1970/80 n more below at 1.1950/60 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.1240/50, suggesting further choppy trading is envisaged ahead of NY open.

    This morning the single currency met renewed selling at 1.1245 on Friday due to dollar's broad-based strength on upbeat U.S. data n Fed officials' hawkish remarks. Euro further extended weakness to 1.1160 in Asian morning before recovering. Offers was now tipped at 1.1185-90 and more at 1.1200. On the downside, bids was located at 1.1160-50 with some stops seen below 1.1150.

    Market players is focusing on the the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. Investors are keenly waiting for further details on its 1 trillion euro ($1.1 trillion) government bond-buying programme, which begins this month.

    Economists expect the ECB will also decide whether to accept Greek government bonds as collateral for its direct funding, which the bank stopped doing at the start of February.

  5. #5

    Smile AceTraderFx Mar 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    03 Mar 2015

    EUR/USD - ...... Despite hitting an intra-day high of 1.1212 after better-than-expected German retails sales at European open, euro came under pressure as st specs sold the single currency broadly as stops below yesterday's 1.1160 are not in focus.
    There is market chatter of large stops building below January's 11-year bottom at 1.1098, so market is keen to test euro's downside.
    Having said that,several layers of bids are reported at 1.1150-30 area and more above 1.1100, so aforesaid January's trough may not be easily reached in the absence of bearish news.

    On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.1190/00 and more above with stops above 1.1245.

    This morning although the single currency staged a brief rebound to 1.1245 on Monday, renewed selling there due to dollar's broad-based strength knocked the pair lower.
    On the data front, Germany will release its retail sales data at 07:00GMT whilst eurozone will release its producer prices at 10:00GMT. ECB policymakers meet in Cyprus on Wednesday and Thursday.
    The ECB is expected to lay out more details of the program at a news conference on Thursday.

  6. #6

    Smile AceTraderFx Mar 5: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    05 Mar 2015

    EUR/USD - ..... Euro languishes near Wednesday's fresh 11-year trough of 1.1061 in subdued Asian morning as traders sold the single currency ahead of today's ECB monetary meeting.
    Reuters reported keen to keep a low profile over the Greek crisis, the ECB will focus on improved growth prospects when it meets today and unveil some but not all the details of its 1 tln euros-plus bond buying plan.

    Meeting in Cyprus, the ECB will keep rates on hold, likely lift growth forecasts to reflect a string of positive data surprises but cut inflation projections as it incorporates the full effect of a dramatic oil price fall, backing its case to buy 60 bln euros worth of bonds a month from March to spur inflation.

    Markets will be looking for how quantitative easing will work, when the buying will start, whether it applies to paper with negative yields and how the purchases will be distributed along the yield curve.
    Anticipation of the QE programme has driven euro zone borrowing costs down to the point where Spain can borrow for 10 years at just 1.3% and investors actually pay for the privilege of lending to Germany for 5 years.
    Yields in Italy, Spain and Portugal dropped to record lows this week.

    Data to be released on Thursday:

    Australia exports, imports, trade balance, retail sales, France unemployment rate, Germany industrial orders, Italy GDP, UK BoE rate decision, EU ECB rate decision, Canada Ivey PMI and U.S. jobless claims and factory orders.

  7. #7

    Smile AceTraderFx Mar 10: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    10 Mar 2015

    EUR/USD - ...... Despite euro's brief rebound from Monday's fresh 11-1/2 year low at 1.0823 to 1.0907 (Europe) on short-covering, the single currency met renewed selling pressure there and fell again in Asia today. Stops below 1.0823 are now in focus but some bids are located at 1.0800. On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.0850-60, 1.0880 and more at 1.0900.

    Greece will continue to be in the spotlight this week. Reuters reported warning Greece it had "no time to lose", EZ ministers agreed technical talks between finance experts fm Athens n its international creditors would start on Wed with the aim of unlocking further funding.

    The ECB's Governing Council is set to hold a teleconference on Thursday to discuss extending that emergency liquidity assistance (ELA), a person familiar with the matter said.
    An opinion poll on Monday showed a large majority of Greeks want Athens to compromise to avoid having to leave the euro.

    Data to be released on Tuesday:

    UK BRC retail sales, Australia NAB business conditions, business confidence, China CPI, PPI, Swiss unemployment, France industrial output, Italy industrial output, U.S. redbook retail sales, wholesale sales and wholesale inventories.

  8. #8

    Smile AceTraderFx Mar 11: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    11 Mar 2015

    EUR/USD - ..... Euro fell in NY session on Tuesday and hit a fresh near 12-year low of 1.0669 in Australia earlier this morning as lingering market worry on Greece continued to pressure the single currency.

    Reuters reported a Greek exit from the euro zone would set a dangerous precedent by showing that the single currency is not irreversible and should be avoided, Italian Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan said on Tuesday.

    "Today we are facing a major risk of considering the possibility of (a country) not being a member of the monetary union anymore," he told students at a university, adding, "You know what I have in mind".
    He said that if the exit option is there for one member, "that option can be extended to other members. Most of all, the monetary union is not irreversible," he said, speaking in English.
    Padoan added: "I personally think Greece will not exit the euro. I will do all I can to keep Greece inside the European monetary union, however, I cannot predict the future".

    Yesterday on the European morning, Euro pares intra-day loss after tanking from 1.0856 (Aust.) to a 12-year low of 1.0785 in Asian morning after tripping some stops below 1.0800.
    However, the release of stronger-than-expected French industrial production (Jan reading came in at 0.4% vs forecast of -0.3%) prompted short-covering, the pair briefly rebounded to 1.0824 but only to retreat soon after the bounce, suggesting traders were still keen to sell euro on intra-day recovery as market woe on Greek debt continues to weigh on the euro.

    Data to be released on Wednesday:

    Australia Westpac consumer confidence, Japan CGPI, machinery orders, China industrial output, retail sales, France current account, UK industrial output, manufacturing output and U.S. Federal budget.

  9. #9

    Smile AceTraderFx Mar 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    13 Mar 2015

    EUR/USD - ..... Greece continues to take centre stage today. Reuters reported European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said on Friday as he met the Greek PM in Brussels that progress on a deal between Athens and its creditors had been insufficient and said he would make "proposals" to overcome the differences.
    Noting that any deal depended on other euro zone governments, Juncker said: "I'm not satisfied with the developments in recent weeks. I don't think we have made sufficient progress."
    Addressing reporters with premier Alexis Tsipras, who said he was "optimistic", Juncker added: "I'm totally excluding a failure. I don't want a failure. I would like Europeans to go together. This is not a time for division. This is the time for coming together."

    With increasing talk among other euro zone states that Greece, under Tsipras' radical left government, could have to quit the currency bloc, the prime minister stressed he wanted a common solution. Juncker, the EU's chief executive, said Tsipras was "on a pro-European track".

    German Feburary Wholesale Prices +0.5% M/M and -2.1% Y/Y vs prev. readings of -0.4% and 2.6% respectively.

  10. #10

    Smile AceTraderFx Mar 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    18 Mar 2015

    EUR/USD - ...... The single currency met renewed selling interest at 1.0614 in Asia and then penetrated Tue's NY sup at 1.0584 ahead of European open on renewed dlr's broad-based strength, price dropped marginally to 1.0580 before recovering in part due to cross-buying in euro.

    Euro zone's trade balance for Febuary will release at 10:00GMT.
    Market's forecast is for the trade surplus to narrow to 15.0 bln euros from 24.3 bln euros in the preceding month.

    Looks like the single currency to remain under pressure ahead of NY open due to expectation of 'hawkish' FOMC monetary policy statements later today and selling on recovery is recommended.
    At present, fresh offers are noted at 1.0600-10 and then 1.0615/20 with stops emerging above 1.0650, whilst bids from various accounts are placed at 1.0560-50 and then 1.0535/30 with stops located just below 1.0530.

    News from Reuters quoting from gov't spokesman, 'Greece aims to clarify Feb, 20 Eurogroup accord, will seek provision of liquidity at EU summit this week; Greek PM Tsipras will not seek funding fm Russia during meeting with Putin in Moscow.'

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