USDJPY Intra-day Elliott Wave view

JPY (USDJPY) made a new high above last Friday’s peak and now seems to be pulling back. Move up from 113.53 ((x)) low could be viewed as a 5 swing Leading Diagonal Elliott Wave structure. There is RSI divergence (not showing) between red wave iii and blue (a) which further supports the idea of JPY move up from 113.53 low being a diagonal structure. As per Elliott Wave theory, after a 5 wave move up or diagonal structure higher completes, pair should make a corrective pull back before rallying again. Decline from 114.93 -114.48 could be viewed as just the first leg of proposed wave (b) pull back. As current bounce stays below 114.93, pair has scope to make another push lower to complete wave (b) pull back before it turns higher again in wave © towards 115.30 -116.11 area. As pair is showing 5 waves up from 113.53 low, we don’t like selling the pair in proposed wave (b) pull back and expect it to find intra-day buyers in the dip as far as price stays above 113.53 low and the pivot there remains intact. Break above 114.93 would suggest wave (b) completed already at 114.48 and pair has started the next leg higher in wave © toward the above mentioned area.

JPY (USDJPY) Intra-day Elliott wave 1H chart 3.9.2017


USDJPY Elliott wave View: Ending impulse

Short term Elliott Wave view in USDJPY suggests that rally to 115.48 on 3/10 ended Intermediate wave (X). Decline from there is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott wave structure in which the first leg wave A is subdivided in 5 impulsive waves. Down from 3/10 high, Minute wave ((i)) ended at 114.46, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 115.195, Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 112.88 and Minute wave ((iv)) ended at 113.56. Cycle from 3/10 high is mature and Primary wave A has enough extension to be called complete, but more downside towards 111.56 – 111.95 area can’t be ruled out to complete Primary wave A. Afterwards, pair should bounce in Primary wave B in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 3/10 high before the decline resumes. A break above proposed Minutte wave (iv) at 112.9 may be an early indication that Primary wave A has ended.

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart 03.21.2017


USDJPY Elliott wave View: Mature cycle

Short term Elliott Wave view in USDJPY suggests that rally to 115.48 on 3/10 ended Intermediate wave (X). Decline from there is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott wave structure in which the first leg Minor wave A is subdivided in 5 impulsive waves. Down from 3/10 high, Minute wave ((i)) ended at 114.46, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 115.195, Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 110.71 and Minute wave ((iv)) is proposed complete at 111.59. Cycle from 3/10 high is mature and Minor wave A has enough extension to be called complete, but a marginal low towards 100 – 110.5 area can’t be ruled out to complete Minor wave A. Afterwards, pair should bounce in Minor wave B in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 3/10 high before the decline resumes. We do not like buying the proposed bounce in Minor wave B and expect sellers to appear when Minor wave B bounce is over in 3, 7, or 11 swing later for another extension lower.

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart 03.23.2017


USDJPY Elliott wave View: More downside

We are taking the more aggressive view in USDJPY and calling the rally to 115.48 on 3/10 as Intermediate wave (B). Decline from there is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott wave structure with an extension in wave 3. Down from 115.48, Minor wave 1 ended at 114.46 and Minor wave 2 ended at 115.2. Minor wave 3 is extended and further subdivided into 5 impulse waves where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 114.49, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 114.82 and Minute wave ((iii)) is proposed complete at 110.714. Minute wave ((iv)) currently is in progress as a Flat Elliott Wave structure towards 111.7 – 112.3 area before pair turns lower in Minute wave ((v)) of 3. Afterwards, pair should bounce in Minor wave 4 and later on still see further downside to complete Minor wave 5 towards as low as 106.85 – 108.5 area. Bounces therefore are expected to be limited and shallow.

If current bounce is getting too big, then as an alternate, the move lower in USDJPY from 115.52 high is unfolding as a zig zag Elliottwave structure where Minor wave A ended at 110.58 low with subdivision of 5 impulsive waves . Current bounce will then be Minor wave B to correct decline from 3/10 high (115.52) before pair resumes lower again in Minor C. This alternate view is the less aggressive view but still calling for more downside in the pair as far as pair stays below 3/10 high. In both views (aggressive and less aggressive), we don’t like buying the pair.

1 Hour USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart 03.24.2017


USDJPY Elliott wave View: Extension lower

We are taking the more aggressive view in USDJPY and calling the rally to 115.48 on 3/10 as Intermediate wave (B). Decline from there is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott wave structure with an extension in wave 3. Down from 115.5, Minor wave 1 ended at 114.46 and Minor wave 2 ended at 115.2. Minor wave 3 is extended and further subdivided into 5 impulse waves where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 112.88, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 113.56 and Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 110.59, Minute wave ((iv)) ended at 111.34, and Minute wave ((v)) of 3 is proposed complete at 110.077. Minor wave 4 bounce is currently in progress towards 111.27 – 112.02 area, which is 23.6 – 38.2 retracement of Minor wave 3, before further downside is seen to complete Minor wave 5 towards as low as 106.85 – 108.5 area. Bounce is expected to be limited and shallow.

If the current bounce gets too big, then as an alternate, the move lower in USDJPY from 115.5 high is unfolding as a zig zag Elliottwave structure where Minor wave A ended at 110.077 low with subdivision of 5 impulsive waves . In this alternative view, current bounce will then be bigger as it’s a Minor wave B bounce to correct decline from 3/10 high (115.52), but still as far as pivot at 115.2 stays intact, pair should resume lower again in Minor C. This alternate view is the less aggressive view but still calling for more downside in the pair as far as pair stays below 3/10 high. In both views (aggressive and less aggressive), we don’t like buying the pair.

1 Hour USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart 03.28.2017


USDJPY Elliott wave View: Ending a cycle

Short term Elliott Wave view in USDJPY suggests that cycle from 3/10 peak (115.53) has ended with Minor wave A at 110.07. Decline from 115.53 is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott wave structure with an extension where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 114.46, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 115.19, Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 110.59, Minute wave ((iv)) ended at 111.34, and Minute wave ((v)) of A ended at 110.07. USDJPY ended cycle from 3/10 peak and correcting that cycle in wave B bounce in 3, 7, or 11 swing.

Wave B bounce is unfolding as an Expanded Flat Elliott wave structure where Minute wave ((a)) ended at 110.82 and Minute wave ((b)) ended at 110.15. Minute wave (©) of B ideally ends at 111.13 – 111.42 area or 1.236 – 1.618 extension of Minute ((a)) and ((b)) and from the area, pair should then either resume to a new low or at least pullback in 3 waves. However, due to the nature of an expanded Flat structure, wave C of a Flat can extend even beyond 1.618 extension. In other words, cycle from 3/27 low ideally ends at 111.13 – 111.42, but can also extend a bit higher and still considered to be part of the same Flat structure starting from 3/27 low. The more important invalidation level therefore is the pivot at 3/10 high (115.53) and wave B bounce should unfold in 3, 7, or 11 swing and the bounce is expected to stay below 115.53 for the next extension to the downside. We don’t like buying the pair.

1 Hour USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart 03.29.2017


USDJPY Elliott wave View: Flat correction

Short term Elliott Wave view in USDJPY suggests that cycle from 3/10 peak (115.53) has ended with Minor wave A at 110.589. Decline from 115.53 is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott wave structure with an extension where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 114.46, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 115.19, Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 110.7, Minute wave ((iv)) ended at 111.59, and Minute wave ((v)) of A ended at 110.59. USDJPY ended cycle from 3/10 peak and correcting that cycle in wave B bounce in 3, 7, or 11 swing.

Wave B bounce is unfolding as an Expanded Flat Elliott wave structure where Minute wave ((a)) ended at 111.48 and Minute wave ((b)) ended at 110.077. Minute wave (©) of B ideally ends at 111.29 – 111.65 area or 1.236 – 1.618 extension of Minute ((a)) and ((b)) and from the area, pair should then either resume to a new low or at least pullback in 3 waves. However, due to the nature of an expanded Flat structure, wave C of a Flat can extend even beyond 1.618 extension. In other words, cycle from 3/27 low ideally ends at 111.29 – 111.65, but can also extend a bit higher and still considered to be part of the same Flat structure starting from 3/27 low. The more important invalidation level therefore is the pivot at 3/10 high (115.53) and wave B bounce should unfold in 3, 7, or 11 swing and the bounce is expected to stay below 115.53 for the next extension to the downside. We don’t like buying the pair.

1 Hour USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart 03.30.2017


USDJPY Elliott wave View: Extended bounce

Short term Elliott Wave view in USDJPY suggests that cycle from 3/10 peak (115.53) has ended with Minor wave A at 110.077. Decline from 115.53 is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott wave structure with an extension where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 114.46, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 115.19, Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 110.59, Minute wave ((iv)) ended at 111.34, and Minute wave ((v)) of A ended at 110.077. USDJPY ended cycle from 3/10 peak and correcting that cycle in Minor wave B bounce in 3, 7, or 11 swing.

Revised view suggests that Minor wave B bounce is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott wave structure where Minute wave ((a)) ended at 111.426 as 5 waves diagonal and Minute wave ((b)) ended at 110.96. Minute wave (©) of B is in progress as 5 waves and expected to complete at 112.31 – 112.63 area before pair resumes lower or at least pullback in 3 waves. As far as pivot at 3/10 high (115.53) stays intact, expect pair to extend lower or at least pullback in 3 waves once Minor wave B is complete.

1 Hour USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart 03.31.2017


USDJPY Elliott Wave View: Bullish Against 112.86

Short term USDJPY Elliott Wave view suggests the pullback to 111.7 low on 6/29 ended Minor wave X. Up from there, wave Y is unfolding as an Elliott wave zigzag structure where Minute wave ((a)) ended at 113.68 and Minute wave ((b)) ended at 112.86. Up from there, Minutte wave (i) of (©) ended at 114.3. Minutte wave (ii) of (©) ended at 113.96, but a break above 114.3 will add validity to the view that the next leg higher has started. Until then, a double correction in Minutte wave (ii) still can’t be ruled out before pair resumes the rally higher. Near term, while dips stay above 112.86, and more importantly as far as pivot at 111.7 low stays intact, expect pair to extend higher. We don’t like selling the pair.

USDJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

USDJPY Elliott Wave View: Ending bounce

Short term USDJPY Elliott wave view suggest that the decline from 7/11 peak is unfolding as a double three Elliott wave structure. Decline to 108.71 low ended Minor wave W and correction of that cycle ended in a Minor wave X at 110.95 peak. Subdivision of Minor wave Y is unfolding as a Zigzag structure. Minute wave ((w)) of ((Y) ended at 108.59 low and Minute wave ((x)) of (Y) bounce is in progress as another Zigzag structure.

Up from 108.59 wave ((w)) low, Minutte wave (a) of ((x)) ended at 109.6 peak and Minutte wave (b) of ((x)) pullback ended at 108.609. Above from there, Minutte wave © of ((x)) is in progress towards 109.67-109.92 or 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area of (a)-(b). Afterwards, pair should resume the decline or pullback in 3 swings at least. We don’t advise buying the pair into the bounce. Expect sellers to appear after Minute wave ((x)) bounce is complete in 3, 7 or 11 swings for further downside, provided pivot at 110.95 peak stays intact.

1 Hour USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart

USDJPY Elliott Wave View: Turning Lower

Short term USDJPY Elliott wave view suggest that the decline from 7/11 peak is unfolding as a double three Elliott wave structure. Decline to 108.71 low ended Minor wave W and Minor wave X bounce ended at 110.95 peak. Subdivision of Minor wave Y is unfolding as a Zigzag structure. Minute wave ((w)) of ((Y) ended at 108.59 low and Minute wave ((x)) of (Y) bounce is proposed complete at 109.82.

However, a break below 108.59 is needed to add conviction to this view. Until then a double correction in Minutte wave ((x)) can’t be ruled out. Near term, as far as pivot from 110.95 peak stays intact, expect pair to extend lower in Minute wave ((y)) or pullback in 3 waves at least. We don’t advise buying the pair and expect more downside in the pair towards 107.46-106.92 area next before a bounce is seen.

USDJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

USDJPY Elliott Wave view: Resuming lower

Short term USDJPY Elliott wave view suggest the decline from 7/11 peak is unfolding as a double three Elliott wave structure. Decline to 108.71 low ended Minor wave W and Minor wave X bounce ended at 110.95 peak. Subdivision of Minor wave Y is unfolding as a Zigzag structure. Minute wave ((w)) of ((Y) ended at 108.59 low and Minute wave ((x)) of (Y) bounce ended at 109.82. The pair has reacted lower from the blue box, but the move lower will get validation only with a break below 108.59. Until then a double correction in Minutte wave ((x)) still can happen.

Down from 108.59, Sub Minutte wave a of (y) ended at 108.82 low and the pair is in Sub Minutte wave b bounce to correct the decline from 109.82 peak. Near term, while bounces fail below 109.82 peak and more importantly below 110.95, expect pair to extend lower. Initial target to the downside is 108.35-108 area to complete Minutte wave (w). Afterwards, pair should bounce in Minutte wave (x) before the decline resumes. We don’t advise buying the pair and expect more downside in the pair as far as bounces fail below 110.95 peak.

USDJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

USDJPY Elliott Wave view: Double Correction

Short term USDJPY Elliott wave view suggests the decline from 7/11 peak is unfolding as a double three Elliott wave structure. Decline to 108.71 low ended Minor wave W and Minor wave X bounce ended at 110.95 peak. Subdivision of Minor wave Y is unfolding as another double three structure of a lesser degree. Minute wave ((w)) of ((Y) ended at 108.59 low and revised view suggests Minute wave ((x)) of (Y) bounce remains in progress to correct cycle from 8/16 peak towards 110.05 – 110.35 before pair turns lower. We don’t like buying the proposed bounce, and as far as pivot at 110.95 remains intact, expect sellers to appear at 110.05 – 110.35 for a new low or at least pullback in 3 waves.

USDJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart