Daily Economic Commentary: Australia

[PipDiddy]

Surf's up, mate! AUD/USD rode the anti-USD wave of QE3 speculations for almost the entire day as it managed to break above the 1.0400 major psychological resistance and close at 1.0439. Can it go for more gains today?

Even though there were no major reports released from the Land Down Under yesterday, the Aussie didn't get left behind when most of the major currencies took advantage of U.S. dollar weakness. As it turns out, Moody's warned the U.S. of a potential debt downgrade, which worsened the Greenback's QE3 selloff.

Only the Westpac consumer sentiment figure is set for release from Australia today and analysts are expecting an improvement from the 2.5% drop seen last August. If the actual figure comes in positive or at least shows a smaller decline than last month's, AUD/USD might be able to hold on to its recent gains. Otherwise, another huge drop in sentiment could force the Aussie to return some of yesterday's gains.

[PipDiddy]

After hitting as high as 1.0507, AUD/USD lost steam and eventually settled at 1.0456, up just 17 pips on the day. Could this be the end of the line for the Aussie bulls?

The Westpac consumer sentiment index may have increased by 1.6%, rising from 96.6 to 98.2, but digging deeper into the report, we can see that it was actually another disappointment.

For one, the index printed below the 100.00 mark for the seventh consecutive month. Second, the index indicated continued pessimism among Australian consumers, as they are not convinced that the economy is improving.

The only reason why AUD/USD managed to edge higher is because of QE3 expectations that are weighing down the dollar!

Speaking of QE3, the FOMC will finally be making its statement tonight during the New York session, so we could be in for a wild day of trading. Make sure you check out my U.S. commentary for the 411 on this event!

[PipDiddy]

Just like the other higher-yielding currencies, the Aussie kicked the dollar's behind in yesterday's trading as risk appetite picked up. AUD/USD closed 45 pips above its opening price at 1.0542 following the very dovish FOMC statement.

It wasn't just dollar weakness that propelled the Aussie higher though. The 2% uptick in gold prices must have also helped the comdoll. Remember that Australia is the world's third-largest gold producer and the surge in the commodity also had a bullish effect on the Aussie.

Our forex calendar is blank for reports from Australia today which means that the comdoll will probably trade according to market sentiment. With that said, be sure to keep in mind that the currency usually rallies when risk appetite is up. Good luck!

[PipDiddy]

For the fourth straight day, the Aussie extended its gains against the Greenback, though the rally on AUD/USD wasn't as pronounced as what we saw on other major pairs. The pair made it to a high of 1.0626 before it settled back down to 1.0555, just 13 pips above the day's opening price.

No news from Australia last Friday. But lucky for Aussie bulls, they didn't need new releases to fuel the Aussie's ascent! With the markets still on a risk rally frenzy, AUD/USD spent the entire Tokyo and London sessions making its way up the charts!

To start off this week's releases, the New Motor Vehicle Sales report for August will be available at 1:30 am GMT. This report isn't really known to generate a lot of action, but it could help Aussie bulls out a bit if it prints a huge improvement from the last reading of -0.8%.

Tomorrow, we'll have RBA monetary policy meeting minutes to look forward to. It could give us valuable insight on what's on central bankers' minds, so it's something y'all should definitely check out!

[PipDiddy]

Ouch! Just like its comdoll counterparts, the Aussie dropped like it's hot in yesterday's trading. AUD/USD traded lower after opening at 1.0551, ending the day at 1.0474.

The comdolls took a hit from the dollar yesterday partly because commodity prices traded lower. However, for the most part of it, protests in China dampened investor appetite for the Aussie.

Remember that China is Australia's largest trading partner and usually, any bad news from the Asian superpower spells trouble for the comdoll too.

But it would seem that there's still more bad news for the Aussie. Earlier today, the RBA meeting minutes showed that its strength in the past few months has posed risks to the Australian economy. Some naysayers even think that the central bank could cut rates next month!

Our forex calendar is blank for economic reports from Australia for the rest of the day. So make sure you keep tabs on market sentiment, alright? Who knows, if risk appetite picks up, we could see the Aussie pare some of its losses. Good luck!

[PipDiddy]

There weren’t much in terms of economic data for the Aussie yesterday, yet the currency still exhibited a lot of movement. It opened up the day at 1.0474, fell to an intraday low at 1.0410, and then closed the U.S. trading session at 1.0453.

Earlier today, the MI Leading Index was released. It came in at 0.4%, slightly lower than the previous month’s 0.5%. Like in the past, the MI leading index didn’t have an impact on price action.

No major data scheduled for release for the rest of the day so don’t expect a lot of movement from AUD/USD. We may see some volatility on AUD/JPY though as the BOJ is set to announce its decision on monetary policy later in the session.

[PipDiddy]

Surf’s up, baby! The Aussie bounced back yesterday, as a wave of risk appetite helped carry AUD/USD 41 pips higher up to 1.0481. Can the Aussie hang-ten and retest former highs or will it wipe out in today’s trading session?

Once again, we’ve got no biggies lined up for us today from Australia. But just like yesterday, that doesn’t mean you can chill out mate! Keep an eye out for risk sentiment, as this has been the major theme driving the market over the past few weeks.

[PipDiddy]

Phew! The Aussie bulls were able to limit AUD/USD’s losses yesterday as they struggled with the release of China’s weak manufacturing PMI. The pair fell to an intraday low of 1.0367 before the comdoll bulls were able to push it to a 1.0443 close.

No major report was released from the Land Down Under yesterday, but the comdoll took a big hit when China’s flash manufacturing PMI came in at 47.8, slightly higher than the previous month’s 47.6 reading but still in contraction territory.

Good thing a bit of optimism and some technical levels were able to support the Aussie as it capped the day just above the 1.0440 handle.

Only the CB leading index report was up for release today, and based on the results printed a couple of hours ago, things aren’t looking so rosy either. The data came in at 0.0% in July even as June’s numbers are revised from 0.2% to 0.5%.

No other report is scheduled for release today, so be careful in placing your trades in case there are any sentiment-changing reports from other major economies!

[PipDiddy]

D’oh! That was so close! After tipping a high at 1.0520, AUD/USD gave up nearly all of its intraday gains and capped the day at 1.0448. What gives?

Only the CB leading index data was released from the Land Down Under last Friday. Though the report came in at 0.0% in July against the 0.5% growth in June, AUD/USD still managed to tip a high above the 1.0500 area. It was only in the U.S. session when concerns on the euro zone came over the markets and risk aversion dragged high-yielding currencies lower against the Greenback.

This week the only reports scheduled from Australia are the RBA financial stability review tomorrow at 1:30 am GMT and the private sector credit report on Friday at 1:30 am GMT. These reports aren’t expected to do much for the Aussie’s price action, so you might want to keep close tabs on reports from other comdoll countries as well as China!

[PipDiddy]

Talk about a wipeout! With risk aversion dominating market sentiment, the Aussie wasn't able to hang ten in the charts yesterday. AUD/USD dropped to its intraday low of 1.0386 almost as soon as it opened. By the New York session close, the pair had settled at 1.0417, 32 pips below its opening price.

Euro zone's problems weighed down on the market's appetite for risk yesterday. Chances are, if we hear more bad news from the region today, the Aussie could continue trading lower. Note that our economic calendar is still blank for reports from Australia which could make the currency vulnerable to market sentiment.

So be on your toes, ayt? Good luck!