Daily Economic Commentary: Australia

[PipDiddy]

No thanks to increased risk aversion, the Aussie experienced a huge sell-off yesterday. AUD/USD opened the day at 1.0318 but the pair eventually found itself at 1.0262 by the end of the U.S. trading session.

The decline in market sentiment was due to Moody’s decision to downgrade 5 Spanish regions. This gave rise to the speculation that Spain could be forced to ask for a bailout soon.

Earlier today, however, the Aussie got a small boost. The quarterly consumer price index smashed expectations and showed a 1.4% inflation rate. The forecast was just a 0.9% rate.

No high impact reports will be released by Australia for the rest of the day but there are a few major events lined up in the U.S. Check out my U.S. economic roundup to know more.

[PipDiddy]

Way to go, Aussie! After tumbling for the past four days, AUD/USD was able to break its losing streak and end in the green yesterday. The pair found support around the 1.0250 area, climbed to a high of 1.0367, then eventually closed at 1.0338. Will it be able to hold on to its gains today?

Thanks to better than expected Australian CPI and a slight improvement in China's HSBC flash manufacturing PMI for October, the Australian dollar was able to end higher against its major counterparts during yesterday's trading.

Australia's quarterly CPI came in at 1.4% for Q3 2012, higher than the estimated 0.5% uptick. While this initially led to speculations that the RBA wouldn't need to cut rates anytime soon, a closer look at the components of the report would reveal that a huge chunk of the increase was merely a result of the newly implemented carbon tax. Analysts say that this tax on emissions mostly from mining companies and manufacturing firms contributed anywhere from 0.5% to 0.7% to the quarterly increase in price levels.

Meanwhile, China reported slower contraction in its manufacturing sector for October as the HSBC flash manufacturing PMI climbed from 47.9 to 49.1. Although the figure is still below the 50.0 mark and still doesn't indicate industry expansion, the fact that the reading is at its highest level in three months was enough reason for the Aussie bulls to party! After all, the continued improvement in China's manufacturing conditions could eventually lead to higher demand for raw materials and commodities from Australia.

There are no economic reports due from Australia for the rest of the week, which means that the Aussie could either continue its rallies from these recent reports or take its cue from risk sentiment. Keep a close eye on U.S. earnings reports as these seem to have a huge impact on sentiment these days!

[PipDiddy]

With no data released, Aussie trading was much more subdued than the past couple of days. AUD/USD traded within a range of 60 pips, and eventually finished the day 1.0360, 22 pips above its opening price.

Once again, we’ve got no hard data lined up for today, but that doesn’t mean you can take a chill pill and hit the waves. Watch out for data coming out during the New York session, as you never know what might trigger a risk rally or a sell-off!

[PipDiddy]

Phew! That was a close one! After dropping to an intraday low of 1.0305, the Aussie bulls flexed their muscles and managed to push AUD/USD 8 pips higher than its open price by the end of the day. What dragged on the Aussie in the first place?

Not Australia’s economic reports! There were no reports released from the Land Down Under, so the Aussie, like other high-yielding currencies, fell victim to the risk aversion that clouded over the markets during the London session. Risk appetite improved a little in the U.S. session though, thanks to a positive GDP report from the U.S.

No reports are on deck again today for Australia, so you might want to check out our economic calendar to see if there are any potential market-moving reports that are scheduled for the other major economies.

[PipDiddy]

The streak ends at three! With risk aversion creeping back into the markets, the Aussie couldn't help but let a few pips slip through its fingers, ending its 3-day winning streak against the Greenback. When all was said and done, AUD/USD settled 33 pips lower at 1.0332.

With no news from Australia to help counter the markets' safe haven flows, the Aussie was helpless against the Greenback. Earlier today, we got our first taste of Australian data as the HIA new home sales report printed a 3.7% decline in September, following the previous month's 5.3% slide. But so far, the markets don't seem to interested in this report.

Looking ahead, it looks as though risk sentiment may remain the key driving force behind AUD/USD action today. That being the case, it would be wise for you to check out the latest developments in the U.S. regarding Hurricane Sandy.

[PipDiddy]

Surf’s up, mate! The Aussie bulls were in control of AUD/USD, which led to the pair closing at 1.0388, up 34 pips on the day. Can the bulls continue to hang-ten or will we see a wipeout Wednesday?

The Aussie benefited from a small wave of risk-taking, as the comdolls and European currencies were generally stronger on the day. With no data lined up for today, we may see risk sentiment dictate Aussie trading once again.

[PipDiddy]

Back-to-back, baby! Thanks to stronger-than-expected Australian data, the Aussie was able to sidestep the cloudy risk sentiment that had loomed over the markets yesterday. AUD/USD finished the day with a 15-pip gain after hitting an intraday high at 1.0400.

Australia’s building approvals rocketed by a whopping 7.8% in September, up from 6.4% in August and faster than the 1.1% rate that market geeks were expecting. Even the private sector credit report surprised to the upside with a 0.3% uptick when analysts were only expecting 0.2%. Apparently, the RBA’s interest rate cuts are doing their tricks are homeowners and homebuilders pick up their activity in anticipation of lower interest rates.

Will the Aussie continue to receive the star treatment from the comdoll traders? A couple of hours ago Australia’s import prices broke the positive streak by coming in at -2.4% when many had only expected the downtick at -1.2%.

China’s manufacturing numbers could still give the comdolls a lift though. China just printed its manufacturing PMI, which came in at 50.2, higher than the previous month’s 49.8 contractionary reading. Even the HSBC final manufacturing PMI showed an uptick as it registered at 49.5 from its 49.1 initial reading. What a good way to start the day, eh?

[PipDiddy]

It may not be putting up spectacular gains day to day, but it sure is consistent! For the third day in a row, the Aussie gained against the Greenback as AUD/USD ticked up another 19 pips to end at 1.0399. Will its slow and steady pace win the race this week?

The Aussie's rally was helped largely by a couple of Chinese PMIs which showed signs of recovery from the economic giant. Remember, China is Australia's largest trading partner, so what's good for China is usually good for Australia and the Aussie.

On the domestic front, things weren't too bullish for the Aussie as import prices decreased 2.4%, which is twice that of median forecasts. Once again, we see how the Aussie's recent strength directly affects the country's trade industry.

Just a few minutes ago, we took a look at the PPI report, and it was just as disappointing. Producer input prices rose by just 0.6% instead of 1.0%, as median forecasts had predicted. But is this enough to keep the Aussie grounded? Only time will tell! We still have a long day ahead of us and the U.S. is still set to publish its NFP report, so keep tabs on AUD/USD, homies!

[PipDiddy]

After scoring three straight wins against the dollar, the Aussie finally wiped out in yesterday’s trading. AUD/USD finished the day lower at 1.0336 after opening at 1.0399.

Renewed concerns about Greece as well as the positive U.S. NFP report didn’t leave investors much reason to be bullish for the Aussie on Friday.

If you're looking to buy the comdoll today, don't worry! Positive data just came out of Australia and they could help the Aussie pull off a comeback.

Retail sales for September grew by 0.5% and beat the forecast which was for a 0.4% uptick. On top of that, the country's trade deficit for the month was narrower than expected at 1.46 billion AUD. Analysts were bracing to see that imports outpaced exports by 1.60 billion AUD.

[PipDiddy]

Now that's how you bounce back! The Aussie was one of the few currencies that stayed afloat against the Greenback's onslaught yesterday, as AUD/USD managed to climb 19 pips to end the day at 1.0360. What's the Aussie's secret?

Good economic data, baby! Retail sales in September exceeded forecasts as it grew 0.5% instead of 0.4%. Meanwhile, Australia's trade deficit shrank more than expected as it narrowed from 1.88 billion AUD to 1.46 billion AUD. But are these reports enough to keep the RBA from cutting interest rates in today's rate statement?

It's hard to say because while we have been seeing some signs of improvement (proof: yesterday's reports), the services and manufacturing industries are still on the decline. Plus, you gotta wonder if there's really a pressing need for lower interest rates at the moment considering that the RBA just cut rates from 3.50% to 3.25% last month.

Whatever the case may be, be sure to tune in at 3:30 am GMT! A surprise rate cut could send the Aussie crashing down the charts. On the other hand, if the RBA decides to keep its finger off the trigger, it could mean that the central bank isn't as dovish as the markets had initially thought and result in an Aussie rally.