Daily Economic Commentary: Canada

[PipDiddy]

Make that four in a row baby! Thanks to the risk rally we saw yesterday, the Canadian dollar was able to edge higher versus the dollar. USD/CAD dropped 25 pips to finish the day 1.0019. Next stop parity?

Can the Canadian dollar continue to surge higher? Well, we'll find out during the New York session as Canadian GDP figures are scheduled to hit the Great White North! Expectations are that the economy grew by 0.2% last May, which would be a nice follow-up to the 0.3% growth in April.

Seeing as how our buddies over at the Bank of Canada have been trying to stay optimistic, if today's report prints to the upside, we could see another victory for the Canadian dollar.

[PipDiddy]

The Loonie could only watch its comdoll comrades with envy as they traded higher yesterday. It got stuck in the bear lair following the disappointing GDP figures from Canada. USD/CAD ended the day 11 pips higher from its opening price at 1.0029.

In May, the Canadian economy only expanded by 0.1% when analysts predicted that it grew by 0.2%. Sure, the discrepancy between the actual and consensus figure is small. However, that may just give the BOC one more reason to stop being hawkish.

For today, our forex calendar is blank for reports from Canada. So be sure you keep tabs on market sentiment as it would probably dictate the Loonie's price action in today's trading. Good luck!

[PipDiddy]

Down for the second day in a row! Like its comdoll buddies, the Loonie weakened against the Greenback following a disappointing statement from the Fed. USD/CAD dropped to an intraday low of 1.0004 before it capped the day 22 pips higher than its open price.

No data was released from Canada yesterday, but there were plenty of action for the high-yielding currencies as they reacted to the Fed’s refusal to pull the QE trigger. Instead of launching another bond-buying program as investors were hoping for, the Fed merely stated its readiness to intervene in case it’s needed. Boo!

There isn’t anything on Canada’s economic boards again today, so you better keep a close watch for any news that might affect risk appetite! Word on the hood is that ECB’s Draghi could provide fireworks when he announces the central bank’s plan for the euro region.

[PipDiddy]

Without any economic data on tap, the Loonie fell victim to market sentiment yesterday. Sadly for the comdoll, ECB President Draghi's speech had traders flocking away from higher-yielding currencies and into the safety of the dollar and the yen. USD/CAD ended the day 22 pips higher at 1.0073 after tapping a low of 1.0002.

As I said in my EUR commentary, the ECB head honcho failed to impress the markets. His speech consequently took a toll on market sentiment and sent higher-yielders like the Loonie to the bear lair.

Our forex calendar is still blank for reports from Canada today. This means that we'll probably see the Loonie trade according to market sentiment. So with that said, make sure you keep tabs on the much anticipated U.S. NFP report as it would probably affect the market's mood in today's trading!

[PipDiddy]

Thar she blows! The Loonie emerged victorious against the safe haven Greenback last Friday as risk appetite managed to make its way back into the markets. USD/CAD started the Asian trading session 1.0073, dipped below parity at .9980, and then closed the day at 1.0019.

The better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls was the main reason behind the Loonie’s rally. It came in at 163,000, significantly higher than the 101,000 increase the market had initially anticipated.

Will the Loonie be able to break parity this week?

Brace yourself for another round of high impact economic releases starting on Tuesday, when the country’s Building Permits and Ivey PMI and publish. The Building Permits report is expected to show a 3.4% decline while the Ivey PMI is predicted to print a reading of 51.7.

The excitement peaks on Friday when Canada releases its employment report. The market expects the report to show that 10,200 jobs were created for July and that joblessness probably increased to 8.3% from 8.2%.

[PipDiddy]

Parity is holding like a boss yo! USD/CAD kept its head above the 1.0000 mark as the pair moved sideways for almost the entire day yesterday. Now that Canadian traders will be back from their bank holiday today, what's next for USD/CAD?

There were no economic reports released from Canada yesterday as the country was on a bank holiday. Today, Canada is set to release its building permits data at 12:30 pm GMT and its Ivey PMI reading at 2:00 pm GMT. Building permits are expected to be down by 3.5% in June, erasing part of the 7.4% jump seen last May. Meanwhile, the Ivey PMI is projected to jump back above the 50.0 mark and land at 52.0, signaling an expansion in Canada's manufacturing industry.

If you're planning to trade the Loonie today, make sure you keep a close eye on these red flags because they could determine whether USD/CAD could finally make a break below parity or not. Good luck!

[PipDiddy]

It looks like the Loonie has been going to the gym! For the third straight day, the currency outmuscled the safe haven Greenback and post another winning day. USD/CAD ended the U.S. trading session at .9976, 21 pips lower from its opening price that day.

The Loonie received a huge boost from better than expected data. The Ivey PMI came in at 62.8 versus the 52.0 initially expected while the Building Permits report only showed -2.5% and not -3.5%. While they weren’t impressive, they were good enough to lift the mood of the bulls.

Will the Loonie continue its winning streak? With nothing on deck, we could see the Loonie take a breather. The pair has already made fresh 2-month lows, so it might be due for a retracement soon. Be safe traders!

[PipDiddy]

There’s no stopping the Loonie bulls’ party! While other high-yielding currencies experienced choppy trading against the Greenback, USD/CAD registered its fourth consecutive decline in a row. Are Canada’s economic reports the reason for the Loonie’s strength?

Not exactly. Although the building permits and IVEY PMI reports that were printed early this week helped, it was actually the rising oil prices and increased possibility of a QE3 from the U.S. that boosted the oil-related comdoll. The question is, will the bulls extend their winning streak for the fifth day?

At 12:15 pm GMT today Canada will release its housing starts data, followed by the new housing price index (NHPI) and trade balance data at 12:30 pm GMT. Pay special attention to the trade balance report for any signs that the sluggish growth in the U.S., Canada’s largest trading partner, has affected the country’s economy.

Good luck trading today, kids!

[PipDiddy]

And the streak goes on and on and on! The Loonie recorded its FIFTH straight win against the Greenback, pushing USD/CAD down 26 pips to a new three-month low at .9920. Will it keep its streak intact today?

Loonie bulls owe it all to BOC Governor Mark Carney, who caught the markets off guard when he declared that Canada's recent economic strength may require interest rate hikes. Yowza! While other central banks are contemplating monetary easing, here we have the BOC actually considering tightening its policy... no wonder the Loonie was in such high demand!

Anyway, this bit of news managed to overshadow yesterday's not-so-impressive reports. Housing starts (209,000 vs. 212,000 forecasts), trade balance data (-1.8 billion CAD vs. -0.9 billion CAD forecasts), and the NHPI (0.2% vs 0.3%) all fell short of expectations.

Today, we have more heavy releases coming out as Canada is due to publish its latest employment reports at 12:30 pm GMT. Look for the job pool to widen by 9,600 jobs and the unemployment rate to stay at 7.2%.

[PipDiddy]

Phew, that was a close one! Though Canada’s employment data surprised to the downside, the Loonie was still able to continue its winning streak against the Greenback. USD/CAD hit an intraday high of .9971 before it settled 8 pips lower than its open price. Talk about being on a roll!

Just when we’re starting to believe BOC Governor Mark Carney’s talks about Canada being different from crisis-related countries like the U.K., Canada’s employment numbers sucker-punched the Loonie bulls.

Canada surprisingly shed 30,400 jobs in July, which pushed the jobless rate up from 7.2% to 7.3%. Analysts had expected a 9,600 increase in jobs.

But the disappointing data didn’t rain on the Loonie bulls’ parade! USD/CAD shot up to an intraday high of .9971 at the release of the report, but the pair soon erased all its gains and even capped the day 8 pips lower than its open price.

We won’t see any economic data on Canada’s docket until Thursday at 12:30 pm GMT when the foreign securities purchase and the manufacturing sales data are due for release, so make sure you keep an eye out for any major news report that might affect the Loonie’s price action!