Daily Economic Commentary: Canada

[PipDiddy]

Ho humm... Thanks to the lack of hard-hitting reports yesterday, USD/CAD was stuck in a tight range just above .9900 for almost an entire day. During the U.S. session, the pair broke slightly higher and reached a high of .9941 before closing at .9926.

Canada's economic schedule is still empty for today, but that doesn't mean that USD/CAD is in for another round of sideways price action! There are a bunch of red flags on the U.S. agenda which may set off some fireworks here and there.

The U.S. is set to release its retail sales data and PPI figures at 12:30 pm GMT today and these reports might have a huge impact on risk sentiment. Make sure you drop by my U.S. economic commentary if you plan to trade USD/CAD during these releases. Good luck!

[PipDiddy]

Zzzzzz.... what a snoozefest on USD/CAD! Once again, the pair remained within a range and failed to set any new highs or lows. Could we see more of the same today?

Despite the high impact reports released by Uncle Sam, USD/CAD continued to consolidate yesterday, as it traded within a tight range of less than 40 pips.

With no data lined up from Canada today, I wouldn’t be surprised if we get another day of ranging. Just be sure to practice good risk management techniques as you never know what might hit the markets!

[PipDiddy]

Finally, some action! USD/CAD busted out of its tight consolidation above the .9900 handle and broke down to close at .9891. Does this mean that this pair is headed much further south?

Although Canada didn't release any economic reports yesterday, the Loonie was able to take advantage of U.S. dollar weakness when Uncle Sam printed weaker than expected figures. U.S. CPI missed expectations of a 0.2% uptick and posted a flat reading while the core version showed a mere 0.1% increase instead of the projected 0.2% climb. Meanwhile, the Empire State manufacturing index posted a surprisingly negative reading of -5.9 when analysts were expecting to see a 6.6 figure.

Today, Canada is set to release its manufacturing sales report and foreign securities purchases data. Manufacturing sales are estimated to rebound by 0.3% in June after slipping by 0.4% last May while foreign securities purchases might fall from 26.11 billion CAD to 10.67 billion CAD. Bear in mind that weaker than expected Canadian data could force the Loonie to return some of its recent gains against the U.S. dollar.

Don't forget that the U.S. is also set to release a few top-tier reports which could affect USD/CAD price action again. Building permits and housing starts, along with the initial jobless claims figure, are due 12:30 pm GMT while the Philly Fed index is set for release at 2:00 pm GMT. Drop by my U.S. commentary to see how those reports could turn out!

[PipDiddy]

This is starting to get ugly! For the third day in a row, Loonie bulls trounced bears as USD/CAD slid further down the charts. Will it fall for a fourth straight day today?

Action on USD/CAD was actually pretty chill during the Tokyo and London sessions. It wasn’t until the New York session that Loonie traders really got things going.

The release of worse-than-expected manufacturing sales (-0.4% vs. 0.3%) and foreign securities purchases (-7.89 billion CAD vs. 10.67 billion CAD) data led to a strong Loonie sell-off. Apparently, the energy sector’s weak performance was to blame for the slump in manufacturing sales, as the month of June saw an unusual number of factory shutdowns.

In any case, demand for the Canadian currency returned in full force soon after the U.S. published disappointing Philly Fed manufacturing index results. Good save!

On the economic docket today is the July inflation report. According to economists, we’ll likely see both headline and core CPI print an increase of 0.2% in prices of consumer goods, up from the 0.4% decline we saw in June. Seeing as the markets have been responding to fundamentals as of late, if inflation comes in stronger than expected, it could lead to more gains for the Loonie. Make sure you tune in at 12:30 pm GMT to catch the action!

[PipDiddy]

Where did all 'em Loonie bulls go? On Friday, the comdoll pared almost all of its gains from Thursday's trading against the dollar. USD/CAD traded higher after it opened at .9867, closing the day at .9891.

The better-than-expected consumer confidence report from the U.S. encouraged dollar-buying among investors. Aside from that, it didn't help the Loonie that the CPI reports from Canada came in lower than expected.

Government data showed that consumer prices (both the headline and core readings) contracted by 0.1% in July. It did not only mark the third consecutive month of decline, it also disappointed expectations which were for a 0.2% uptick.

Of course, the negative inflation report worried some traders that it may give the BOC enough reason to shed its hawkish feathers for dovish ones.

For today, we only have the wholesale sales report for June on tap from Canada at 12:30 pm GMT. It is anticipated to come in at 0.4%. Although it's only a second-tier report, a better-than-expected reading may give the Loonie a little boost as it would imply stronger consumer spending among Canadians. So don't miss it!

[PipDiddy]

Like a sneaky little thief, the Loonie snatched a few pips away from the Greenback to start the week. With the newswires silent in Canada and the U.S., USD/CAD quietly dipped 9 pips to end the day at .9884.

USD/CAD might as well have been called Snoozeville with how boring price action on the pair was yesterday. It stayed within a very tight range and didn't move more than 30 pips to start the day!

Hopefully, action will pick up later with the release of the wholesale sales report, which is expected to show an increase of 0.3%, down from 0.9%. Since this report gives us an early indication of retail sales performance, you might want to catch it when it comes out at 12:30 pm GMT.

[PipDiddy]

After it looked like USD/CAD was headed for 4-month lows, the Canadian lost its grip and slipped versus the dollar yesterday. The pair hit as low as .9843 before reversing and finishing at .9897, 13 pips above its opening price.

Wholesale sales disappointed, as it showed a mere 0.1% uptick last month, after it was projected to have grown by 0.3%.

But the real reason why the Canadian dollar fell may have been due to oil trading. Brent crude also set off for new highs but couldn’t sustain its momentum and eventually closed just above its opening price. Don’t forget, the Canadian dollar is highly correlated to oil prices, so when we see oil prices drop, we normally see the same on the Canadian dollar.

For today, we could be in for more volatility as Canadian retail sales figures are scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT. Headline and core sales are projected to have increased by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. If you plan to play this report, don’t forget to check out Forex Gump’s guide to play the Canadian retail sales report!

[PipDiddy]

For the second day in a row, the Loonie lost in the battle for supremacy versus the safe haven Greenback. Apparently, commodity prices were generally weaker yesterday, which resulted in the Loonie being sold off. Oil was unable to rise and remained unchanged around $97 while gold fell to $1,639.

Economic data from Canada also disappointed. The retail sales report showed that sales fell 0.4% instead of rising 0.2%. The core version of the retail sales report was also weaker than expected as it showed a 0.4% decline versus the 0.3% increase initially expected.

Canada’s economic cupboard has nothing in it today. This means that the Loonie’s price action will most likely be dictated by events happening in other major economies like the U.S.

[PipDiddy]

Tough luck, Loonie bulls! The Canadian dollar wasn’t spared from the scrilla bulls’ wrath yesterday as they bought the Greenback against the comdolls. USD/CAD rose for one more day thanks to mixed QE3 speculations.

Canada didn’t release any economic report yesterday, but the Loonie bears got busy as more and more traders doubted the Fed’s resolution to pull the QE3 trigger in the near future. Of course, Canada’s string of disappointing economic reports early this week probably made it easy for the Loonie bears to pay attention to the QE3 skeptics.

Canada’s economic boards are empty again today, which gives you a lot of room to trade the Loonie based on news reports from other major economies. Don’t forget to read up on what’s influencing price action and make sure you stick to your trading plan!

Enjoy your weekend, homies!

[PipDiddy]

The Loonie bulls were able to breathe a collective sigh of relief last Friday as USD/CAD ended its 3-day winning streak by stepping back by 20 pips to .9916. No report came out from Canada, so what influenced the Loonie lovin’?

The comdoll bulls have ECB speculations to thank! Apparently, investors of high-yielding currencies like the Canadian dollar got their kicks when rumors went around that the ECB is making progress on its plans to buy peripheral bonds to limit their yields.

Don’t be so sure that the good vibes will continue though, as there are also a couple of reports circulating about a possible temporary Grexit. No data is scheduled to come out from Canada today, so any news about the euro zone or the Fed’s stimulus plans will most likely affect the Loonie today. Just be careful in trading the comdolls, aight?